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sdrealtor
ParticipantTypically takes longer than you think for declines to come. Gonna take more than a few months
Participant[quote=Pbranding][quote=sdrealtor][quote=ncsd760]2.57 to 3.1 in less than a year feels a little arbitrary now, doesn’t it? https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/209-Coral-Cove-Way-92024/home/22420675%5B/quote%5D
That’s about what the market had done. We’ll see if it sticks?[/quote]
So looks like they didn’t get their price. Was reduced and now pulled off the market.[/quote]
It looks like seller got a job relo to OC 6 months after closing. They lived there before coming here and kept house there they bought several years ago. They have a very nice very affordable place up there they likely went back to. Dont think they will have issues carrying it. Maybe rent it out and try again in Spring. Dunno?
Participant[quote=Pbranding]Sdr,
What’s going on with 2901 Segovia Way? Looks like it sold for 2.5 just last month and now on the market for 2.375?Only a few homes away from that serbal home that sold for 3.325 but clearly not as nice… but if that’s not an example of home values going down I don’t know what is.[/quote]
So a few things to say about this. That is not a great house for that model and the neighborhood. Kinda busy street, backyard all pool and minimal upgrades/mostly origianl. I knew original owner and when he sold at peak frenzy in 2005 the house sat for 4 months which says a lot about desiareability of that spot.
So then it sold to an ebuyer last month who overpaid if they paid 2.5M. However, the ebuyers usually record the sales at higher than what they actually pay so it looks better when they resell it quickly. They dont care about a few hundred extra in taxes for a couple month. The reality is the fees and sales charges are close to 10% so my guess is they actually paid closer to 2.25M not 2.5M
With that said the market is definitely slower and softer now. Those conditions hit homes like this that struggled to sell even back in the best of times in 2005 faster and harder than say a house like Serbal which just went for $3.325M There are always trophy buyers for the most coveted “prom dates”
As an aside I was interested in Homelight and searched tax records. They currently own 16 properties in SD County. Some in escrow and some sold but tax records dont reflect yet. I dont know how much they will make on these but collectively should come out without big losses if at all
Participant[quote=evolusd][quote=sdrealtor]And there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix[/quote]
Looks like in his ‘hood Treviso, current listings are at high mark of recent sales, not 5-10% higher. One of the listings just sold in May and is now back on the market at same price, very strange. Given rates, achieving those same prices today seems unrealistic.
Definitely a nice little neighborhood, but those prices are insane given HOA and tax rate, IMO.[/quote]
Guess I should have been more clear. The homes today should be listed at what the homes that recently sold were listed at (adjusted for differences) not the 5 to 10% over asking price those houses went for.
For example there is one listed at $1.485M. The last sale of that model was listed at $1.425 and sold for $1.51M in the frenzy. This new one is not nearly as nice with basic landscaping not the $100K + the one that went for $1.51M went for had in landscape and upgrades. This one should be listed no higher than $1.35M IMO (the 1.425 – 75K for landscape and upgrades if not more). If there are multiple buyers and the market is higher than that it will get bid up. But listing that one at $1.485M (started at 1.499) is about 10% too high on the asking price
The one that is back on the market listed at 1.44M and sold during frenzy at 1.67M because one buyer was willing to pay that. Realistically should be back on the market at 1.44 and let the market sort it out but of course that one buyer wants/expects/hopes to get their money back
ParticipantAnd there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix
ParticipantNew listings 15 (22) – another nice drop with a holiday weekend and peak listing time past
New Pendings of 20 (23) – a bit of a bump from last week. Still demand out there
Thats -5
Closed sales at 16 (27)
Total houses for sale 121 (74) with median of $1.995M ($1.887M).
Inventory basically flat since last week. Starting to wonder if we have seen peak inventory for the year? Pendings should continue to march along at current pace but will sellers flood the market. Im thinking they wont and some will start to pull homes off the market that dont sell in the next 30 to 60 days. I think we’ll be back under 100 by end of Summer if not sooner.
Also seeing a fair amount of price reductions as homes reach 2, 3 and 4 weeks on the market. These are motivated sellers with expereinced agents doing their jobs. If it isnt generating offers/selling by these times its time to look at pricing if you are searching for the market level. Good to see that
ParticipantNew listings 9 (9)
New Pendings of 9 (9)
Closed sales at 5 (4)
Inventory at 37 (23) with median of 1.04M (850K)
Inventory continues creeping up slowly. Buyers have choices now but most inventory still 900K+. Much of the comps were achieved starting low and letting market bid up prices but with slower pace the sellers are looking at comps and trying to draw a line in the sand. Thats contributing to rise in inventory.
Inventory is a little higher than I would have guessed it would reach a month or two ago but not excessive by any means. I figured we would peak around this level but I think we will see a bit more growth now. With that said we should be close to peak inventory here and would expect it to level and then start dropping again by Summers end. For now market still mostly in balance
Participant[quote=XBoxBoy]There is a post in the reddit thread that claims the data is erroneous:
[quote]Hi, I work with the econ team at Redfin. While I believe there is a correction beginning in Boise, this particular data is erroneous. We’ve got an issue with the weekly new listings data there that is causing it to look like they’re shooting up in recent weeks, but that’s not accurate.[/quote][/quote]
Just stop with the cosplay
ParticipantThe same thing is happening in SLC, Provo, Nashville, Phoenix, Austin, Vegas (markets for which there is data) and no doubt many other of flee from blue states to nice clean conservative affordable living. They dont have the white collar professional job base that many left behind. On paper it sounded great to WFH home but now they are looking around at their neighbors who arent like them or they live next to rentals on both sides. Those markets were all heavily investor markets unlike here which pushed their prices up much more than they would have with a higher concentration of homeowners. People are waking up and realizing these places dont have what they left behind. At least for now the Coastal markets around the country as faring better.
Participant[quote=Hobie]There are a lot of new grads trying to get started with a family. Even with dual incomes the high cost of housing in SD is tough for them to get started.
Alternatives out of state are looking good as they can swing a house on one income so the other spouse can be a stay at home parent.
I appreciate EP’s continued input.[/quote]
Absolutely this is a tough place for someone just starting out. Having a family makes it even tougher. Having grown up in a nice home and having high expectations even tougher in an area like this where almost everyone makes compromises in their housing at all ages and income levels. People leaving for those reasons are making decisions in the best interest of their families. Being financially responsible is very important to having stability in one’s life and home
Participant[quote=flyer]Yes, we’ve seen that trend in the many years our families have been in CA, and it seems to have escalated in recent years among various income groups. The evolution of CA on many levels may have caught some people off guard, especially when it comes to the extreme escalation in the cost of housing for themselves and for their children. Many do not want to be forever renters, or to live communally with their families for the rest of their lives, so they’ve decided to make a change.
As natives, we’re definitely not fans of everything that is going on in CA, but we’re also not about to let any negative aspects, as we perceive them, prevent us from enjoying and thriving in the state we and our families plan to continue to call home for a very long time.[/quote]
Good attitude. While it may or may not be the case with EP, behind their claims of liberal politics almost every case Ive seen of people leaving was really financial. People that havent saved properly to retire or that cant keep up with the COL here. There is no shame in that, When we all came to CA everyone of us knew what we were getting ourselves into. Those who were born here know even moreso what we all sign up for living here. Most of the political rantings from my experience is sour grapes
ParticipantData is clear and has long been the trend. Those that leave are predominately lower income than those arriving here.
One interesting thing I’m starting to read about is the potential for large companies to come to CA to get away from abortion bans and crazy red state politics. Newsom is already rolling out the welcome mat
Its inevitable we’ll see one soon if only to make a political statement much like Musk did moving hdqtrs to TX while expanding OPS in CA
ParticipantNew listings 21 (24) – as expected dropped down from what should’ve been peak listing. I dont think we’ll see 30 again and if we do more than once it would be notable
New Pendings of 16 (34) – still dropping and buyer starting to resist prices
Thats +5
Closed sales at 20 (31)
Total houses for sale 120 (69) with median of $2M ($1.8M).
Inventory still climbing slowly but still around 1 1/2 months. No more than 15% have reduced prices so far. thats a sign of seller staying power/resistance. As we head toward end of Summer will be interesting to see if sellers reduce or pull homes off market. In the month of June 12 sellers decided to pull their homes off the market. Another thing i’ll be watching
ParticipantI think we can say we are now pretty much a balanced market despite inventory still being under 1 1/2 months.
New listings 9 (7)
New Pendings of 3 (6)
Closed sales at 9 (15)
Inventory at 34 (20) with median of 1.025M (850K)
A relatively slow week but it was last year also. Inventory continues to build and there are now a handful on the market in the 800’s. Inventory will keep building the next few weeks. If you’re a buyer keep watching this thread to follow direction of the market and think in terms of being ready come mid/late October pending conditions following the current trend.
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