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sdrealtor
ParticipantBack to the old format but please make sure to read the catch up posts if you have not already
New listings 3 (6) –
New Pendings of 7 (5) –
Thats -4
Closed sales at 5 (5)
Total houses for sale 10 (7) with median of $995k ($900k). There were 13 on the market 2 years ago
New listings down from last week and pendings up. Inventory edging towards where we were last year. These are not conditions conducive to a crash or even declining values.
ParticipantIm not sure if it is my personal email but I still use that one. It is the first email a/c I ever signed up for with aol back around 1991 maybe earlier. I still have it and use it every day
ParticipantOne additional piece of data to complete the picture which is active inventory by week compared to last year. I only have some of 2 years back here unlike NCC
Jan 10th 14 (4)
Jan 17th 11 (2) (7)
Jan 24th 7 (2) (10)
Jan 31st 11 (4) (8)This time last year inventory was extraordinarily low but it started trending higher in February. We dont have nearly as low levels here as last year either but they are similar to two years ago also. I dont expect a price explosion but as seen above demand is starting to exceed supply and inventory is trending slightly down.
Net – net is inventory is still very constrained compared with pre-pandemic. While we are in a very balanced market the pricing pressure should be ever so slightly to the upside. I think things will get tougher come Summer and that Fall will be the buying window for those so inclined to catch most of whatever decline we will see in this compressed cycle
ParticipantOne additional piece of data to complete the picture which is active inventory by week compared to last year. I have 2 years back here also so including that as well
Jan 10th 63 (21) (52)
Jan 17th 58 (29) (51)
Jan 24th 55 (21) (50)
Jan 31st 56 (24) (48)This time last year inventory was extraordinarily low but it was trending higher. We dont have nearly as low levels so I dont expect a price explosion but as seen above demand is starting to exceed supply and inventory is trending slightly down. The situation looks very much like it did two years ago. I dont have pre-pandemic numbers but I know they are about 50% higher than where we are now.
Net – net is inventory is still very constrained and while we are in a very balanced market the pricing pressure should be ever so sliughtly to the upside. I think things will get tougher come Summer and that Fall will be the buying window for those so inclined to catch most of whatever decline we will see in this compressed cycle
ParticipantIm not sure what happened but we seem to have lost some of the past data and posts. Anyway time to move on! Lets see if the same things is happening here as in NCC
Slight change of format for the catch up. First new listings by week as compared to last year.
New Listings Week ended:
Jan 10th 1 (7)
Jan 17th 3 (3)
Jan 24th 2 (3)
Jan 31st 5 (3)4 week total 11 (16)
Thats also a very big drop over what was anemic data last year. Looks like about 1/3rd less just like the NCC. Last year prices exploded with few listings/ huge demand and this year new supply is far less. If there was any doubt there would be a seller’s strike that has been answered here also.
Unless demand falls off a cliff forget about falling prices this Spring!
Now lets look at the demand side:
New Pendings Week ended:
Jan 10th 2 (4)
Jan 17th 5 (2)
Jan 24th 5 (4)
Jan 31st 2 (2)4 week total 14 (12)
Thats actually more than last year! There is definitely more to buy this year than last year. Back then there was literally under 5 homes each week on the market so that explains some of it. The numbers are much smaller and more prone to being skewed. So its hard to have as much confidence in what im seeing here but it does align with what is going on in NCC. So Im gonna go with the same here
Demand has NOT fallen off a cliff. Not only dont I expect to see prices keep falling I think we are gonna see them take back some of those second half losses! Buyers are back! This is a bit of surprise. And maybe more than a bit
ParticipantSlight change of format for the catch up. First new listings by week as compared to last year.
New Listings Week ended:
Jan 10th 6 (6)
Jan 17th 8 (17)
Jan 24th 8 (10)
Jan 31st 9 (12)4 week total 31 (45)
Thats a a very big drop over what was anemic data last year. Last year prices exploded with few listings and huge demand and this year new supply is far less. If there was any doubt there would be a seller’s strike that has been answered.
Unless demand falls off a cliff forget about falling prices this Spring!
Anecdotally I’ll add the new listings skew heavily to people leaving the area, people aging out of very long time homes and high end homes. New listings of nice regular homes up here are pretty non-existent.
Now lets look at the demand side:
New Pendings Week ended:
Jan 10th 6 (5)
Jan 17th 13 (13)
Jan 24th 13 (23)
Jan 31st 18 (16)4 week total 50 (57)
Thats not much of a drop off. There is defintely more to buy this year than last so that explains some of it. But rates have come back down and prices are down since last year by a decent amount.
Demand has NOT fallen off a cliff. Not only dont I expect to see prices keep falling I think we are gonna see them take back some of those second half losses! Buyers are back! This is a bit of surprise. And maybe more than a bit
Here are a couple anecdotes. A friend/past client called me about a relative that had been renting in my hood after relocating a couple years ago from Bay Area. The friend/client was nicknamed Dr Doom by our friends and was as bearish as anyone ever was on this site back in the day. Relative had opportunity to buy direct from neighbor a couple doors down from long time owner. My friend told his relative he thought it was probably ok at that price but he should talk to me first. I was surprised my friend wasnt expecting doom. When I heard the price I said that is probably a good 10% below the market in Fall and what I expect prices to be end of year. Its the perfect house for everything they want and would attract lots of attention even in a bad market. He said the seller wanted to stay a few months and close this Summer. My advice was I thought this Fall would be at or near bottom so safe to buy now. But I insisted he should close asap! If it went longer something could happen to get seller to change mind so better to close asap and work out deal for seller to stay a few months and that is what he did. The seller had an agent who would be handling everything so i was just advising the relative.
A week later a house not as nice listed for $300K more than his contract price. It sold in a few days with 3 Bay Area families bidding for it. My friends relative is gonna close with $300 to 400K of extra equity. Nice win for them and seller has no out. However, seller has over $500K taxable gain so additional purchase price would be heavily taxed. Im sure they arent happy but they will be fine. Call it a win!
The property I am interested in buying would be all or mostly cash. It would require liquidating a large amount of my equity holdings. Its a very special/unique property that meets some future needs to a tee. It is also an opportunity to leave a family real estate legacy beyond my years here. As conservative as I am I was still unsure. Last week I met with my long time (30+ years) very conservative financial advisor. I told him my plans and explained my thinking. Then I said OK talk me out of this crazy idea! I about fell over when he loved the idea. He said I should do it but postpone my ADU plan as I could do that anytime and I now realize he is right. He’s gonna help figure out the optimal mix of leverage while balancing tax repurcussions. Im pretty much all in on the idea. Who would’ve thought it?
Participantx
ParticipantTime to work on catching up. Ive been collecting data and in my mind writing the update as to what I was thinking at the time. But now I think that could be tough to follow and not important. Whats most is important is what is happening.
When we left off the market was really slow on both sides. There were few new sellers and even fewer buyers. Inventory was falling as it does toward the end of each year as sellers take em off for the holidays.
I have long hypothesized that the golden handcuffs of a low rate mortgage would limit the flow of inventory. I also thought that demand would stay very muted enough. I expected prices to keep falling albeit at a much slower pace than the second half of last year.
Alot has stayed the same but some things have definitely changed. Working on getting the data together for you all.
ParticipantTo a large degree it has been on the coast with prop 13 for a long time
ParticipantWelcome back! So now the question is what is gonna happen to inventory? Will there be a race to the exits? Will buyers keep buying?
New listings 3 (6) –
New Pendings of 5 (12) –
Thats -2
Closed sales at 6 (18)
Total houses for sale 57 (18) with median of $1.95M ($2.77M).
Deadsville here also. Even less coming on then last year and of course less selling. Next week should be similar and then the season begins. The slow start does seem to foreshadow whats ahead though.
On personal note, it looks like the homes Im interested in will get released late 2023 and then about a year to build which is what I was hoping for. There is one getting released this Spring that would be hard to pass on though if I get the chance. TBD
ParticipantWelcome back! So now the question is what is gonna happen to inventory? Will there be a race to the exits? Will buyers keep buying?
New listings 0 (1)
New Pendings of 1 (1)
Closed sales at 1 (2)
Inventory at 13 (2) with median of 1.03M (data not recorded last year)
Dead as a door nail. The increase in inventory is due to folks coming back after a holiday break. No one jumping the gun to head for the exit door yet. Little coming on the market. Next week likely similar and then the season begins.
ParticipantLast update of the year! New listings 0 (2) –
New Pendings of 2 (5) –
Thats -2
Closed sales at 7 (6)
Total houses for sale 58 (18) with median of $1.975M ($2.9M).
A few thoughts. Im less confident here than down in MM though I dont see any thing Id consider a crash here. Pricing is currently back around where it was a year ago.
This was the first week Ive ever seen ZERO homes listed. While normally I would chalk it up to the holidays I think its a precursor foreshadowing what will be owners resistance to give up low rate mortgages and sell at now lower prices.
There still isnt a single home for sale below $1M but Id expect we get some this year. Not many but some.
The huge drop in the y-o-y median is due to everything up to around $2M selling last year so it was very skewed a year ago with a top heavy mix at year end.
In the last 4 weeks we put 34 into escrow and we end with 58 on the market. Call it just under 2 months of inventory. We probably had a dozen or so taken off market for holidays so we should get back over 70 pretty quickly.
While we wont get as much new inventory as we typically do, the demand side is the unknown. Potential buyers will be looking at prices around 20% lower year over year this Spring with much higher rates. I see moderate but not big downside ahead. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Ironically Im looking at a purchase this Spring. Its kind of a once in lifetime thing that I wont have another chance at. Despite knowing Id be paying a bit of premium there’s a good chance Im gonna. It would be all or mostly cash. Would be a great place to ride out the string someday while renting my home and a great place for one of the kiddos someday or a great income property for them.
Happy New Year everyone
ParticipantFinal update of the year!
New listings 1 (1)
New Pendings of 5 (2)
Closed sales at 2 (3)
Inventory at 9 (3) with median of 1M (data not recorded last year)
Overall the market here looks pretty stable. In the last month 14 went into escrow and we finish up with 9 on the market. Comparing this to the NCC market I think its closer to finding its bottom and comfortable level. I beleive most sales will remain at 800k+. There should be some in 700’s but Im not seeing the 600’s coming back. I guess time will tell.
Happy New Year all!
ParticipantNew listings 4 (5) –
New Pendings of 12 (16) –
Thats -8
Closed sales at 11 (18)
Total houses for sale 66 (24) with median of $1.975M ($2.51M).
Activity looks much like last year with little coming on but sales still going. Inventory is half what it was at Summer peak level. I expect much the same for next 3 or 4 weeks and then we start to see what 2023 will bring
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