Mira Mesa Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Im not sure what happened but we seem to have lost some of the past data and posts. Anyway time to move on! Lets see if the same things is happening here as in NCC

Slight change of format for the catch up. First new listings by week as compared to last year.

New Listings Week ended:

Jan 10th 1 (7)
Jan 17th 3 (3)
Jan 24th 2 (3)
Jan 31st 5 (3)

4 week total 11 (16)

Thats also a very big drop over what was anemic data last year. Looks like about 1/3rd less just like the NCC. Last year prices exploded with few listings/ huge demand and this year new supply is far less. If there was any doubt there would be a seller’s strike that has been answered here also.

Unless demand falls off a cliff forget about falling prices this Spring!

Now lets look at the demand side:

New Pendings Week ended:

Jan 10th 2 (4)
Jan 17th 5 (2)
Jan 24th 5 (4)
Jan 31st 2 (2)

4 week total 14 (12)

Thats actually more than last year! There is definitely more to buy this year than last year. Back then there was literally under 5 homes each week on the market so that explains some of it. The numbers are much smaller and more prone to being skewed. So its hard to have as much confidence in what im seeing here but it does align with what is going on in NCC. So Im gonna go with the same here

Demand has NOT fallen off a cliff. Not only dont I expect to see prices keep falling I think we are gonna see them take back some of those second half losses! Buyers are back! This is a bit of surprise. And maybe more than a bit

[sdrealtor]

One additional piece of data to complete the picture which is active inventory by week compared to last year. I only have some of 2 years back here unlike NCC

Jan 10th 14 (4)
Jan 17th 11 (2) (7)
Jan 24th 7 (2) (10)
Jan 31st 11 (4) (8)

This time last year inventory was extraordinarily low but it started trending higher in February. We dont have nearly as low levels here as last year either but they are similar to two years ago also. I dont expect a price explosion but as seen above demand is starting to exceed supply and inventory is trending slightly down.

Net – net is inventory is still very constrained compared with pre-pandemic. While we are in a very balanced market the pricing pressure should be ever so slightly to the upside. I think things will get tougher come Summer and that Fall will be the buying window for those so inclined to catch most of whatever decline we will see in this compressed cycle

• This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by sdrealtor.

[sdrealtor]

Back to the old format but please make sure to read the catch up posts if you have not already

New listings 3 (6) –

New Pendings of 7 (5) –

Thats -4

Closed sales at 5 (5)

Total houses for sale 10 (7) with median of $995k ($900k). There were 13 on the market 2 years ago

New listings down from last week and pendings up. Inventory edging towards where we were last year. These are not conditions conducive to a crash or even declining values.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 3 (6) –

New Pendings of 4 (9) –

Thats -1

Closed sales at 4 (4)

Total houses for sale 11 (7) with median of $1M ($940k). There were 10 on the market 2 years ago with a 770K median.

We’ve gotten a max of 5 new listings in a week this year but 3 or less the other weeks. One of the new listings was bought last Summer so plans changed and not someone settled in with ultra low rate.

Inventory is where it was 2 years ago but prices are holding much higher than back then.

The great dig in and stay put continues

[Bewildered]

Any idea how the homes in 3 roots are selling? There are 1800 homes in the community.

Were many deposits put down when there were lower rates? It will be interesting to see how prices are affected.

[an]

The biggest Alta development is all sold out. While Brio, there’s currently one listed on the MLS @ $1.66m for a plan 1.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (4) –

New Pendings of 5 (10) –

Thats -1

Closed sales at 2 (3)

Total houses for sale 12 (4) with median of $1M ($945k). There were 5 on the market 2 years ago with a 750K median.

MM seems to be settling in with listing counts slightly lower but similar to last and prior years

The homes under $1M are selling while those over are sitting unless special. I could see the market slog along like this for next few months. Not expecting a flood but pricing seems to be holding firm in the sub $1M market. Eventually the higher priced homes should capitulate in Summer/Fall possibly bringing the market down a touch then. But overall this is a stable market and should be for a while to come. People are mostly content to stay put

[Jmw2]

Will 3roots prices every come back to earth?! It’s messing with the data

[an]

This is earth and that is the data. People pay more for new homes in a new community. Those houses are a lot bigger than typical MM houses.

[sdrealtor]

This is also a premium on a new home. People will always pay more to be the first person to use the….

[sdrealtor]

Heading into the weekend in peak season here with one 3BR house on the market below $1M. If there wasnt rain expected there would be a traffic jam there

[an]

Can’t wait to have spring in the rear-view mirror. It’ll be interesting to see how this spring will play out.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 5 (4) –

New Pendings of 3 (5) –

Thats +2

Closed sales at 2 (5)

Total houses for sale 13 (7) with median of $1.075M ($1.075M). There were 7 on the market 2 years ago with a 770K median.

MM starting to get a few more but generally speaking new listings are slightly below last year. Pricing feels about the same as last year this time but should go negative soon as we compare to those peak Spring 22 months soon

• This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by sdrealtor.

[sdrealtor]

Update time w/ last year data in parentheses

New listings 3 (6) –

New Pendings of 5 (7) –

Thats -2

Closed sales at 7 (7)

Total houses for sale 11 (4) with median of $1.05M ($978k). There were 67 on the market 2 years ago with a 762K median. 8 of 11 on the market priced between 900k and 1.1M but most above 1M. Could be a slow pending week ahead as not much of interst below $1M

Much of the same. New inventory comes from those leaving or dying. Market under $1M is stronger but a nice property above will sell also

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (8) – all previously owned for decades. Its becoming a probate/estate sale market

New Pendings of 3 (6) –

Thats +1

Closed sales at 7 (10)

Total houses for sale 12 (8) with median of $1.05M ($972k). There were 6 on the market 2 years ago with a 727K median. As expected slow week of pendings with little under $1M and expect same next week.

[Author]

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