[sdrealtor]

I pretty much agree with most of what he said. Excess demand pushed prices up and excess supply will drag them back down. When the market cools most people will stay where they are (albeit some begrudgingly). I do see some parallels to the dot com bubble though.

[sdrealtor]

Not that it matters but I’m in my 40’s already, plan on being exactly where I am today in 20 years (albeit only 6 years from paying off my 30 yr fixed rate mortgage at 5.5%) never stopped thinking about my house as anything other than a place to live and already laugh about the time we spend on these blogs.

[sdrealtor]

Inventory seems about where its been for a while at approx 50 active listings in SEH. Pendings aren’t bad at 20. A year ago there was nothing under 600k there. there are now 2 for sale and 2 in escrow under 600K. personally I’m not a big fan of SEH.

[sdrealtor]

Carlsbad is tricky because it represents 3 different school districts. Based upon what you’ve said about education for your kids, you’ll want to be in Southwest Carlsbad – 92009 in the portion that falls in the Encinitas/San Dieguito School Districts. In 1.5 to 2 years, I beleive you will be looking at homes that are currently in 800 to 850 range. You can see what that will get you on realtor.com. Basically, its a 4BR 2,500 sq ft home built in the late 70’s to mid 80’s. With a little luck and the assistance of a good realtor, hopefully it would be on a nice size lot (10,000 sq ft or more) and be very nicely remodelled/updated. Based upon my assumptions, with a little more luck it could be a 2,300 to 2,800 sq ft home built in the mid to late 90’s on a smaller lot but in a really nice neighborhood with lots of youngsters running around.

I don’t know that much about OC but dont see how there can be that much difference in the path they take even with the stronger job market up there.

[sdrealtor]

It sounds like you are in a rare and great situation for a salesguy. Hold onto to it but don’t forget my warnings. No matter what the situation, the more you give the more they demand from you. Corporate America with perpetual pressure to produce earnings growth can suck the life out of you.

As for the stats you asked about, they are all hogwash. I place very little creedence in any statistics. The data is garbage and every property is unique. Summary statistics are of very questionable value. Here’s what really happened……Prices peaked virtually every where in SD in Spring/Early Summer of 2004. I have seen several homes sold during that period come back on the market recently and sell for less. My best “guestimate” is that there has already been an actual decline of 5% to 10% depending upon location. Sure there are some exceptions but I’d take that as more the rule than the exception.

[sdrealtor]

Blah, blah, blah! Never said any of the things you are trying to ridicule only that the first two weeks of April are traditionally very slow and that the data is not necessarily representative of what’s going on. If you don’t appreciate straight forward and truthful information about what is actually going on in the trenches your missing out on a vital pice of information. Everything I belive tells me this thing is going down but the market continues to be amazing resilient. In the primary area I track, the number of sales of detached homes through 4/18 are essentially equal to last year. Sure there is a lot more inventory but people are still buying and selling homes every day.

[sdrealtor]

Don’t read too much into early April stats. Anyone making decent money has spent the last two weeks shuffling receipts and meeting with their CPA. I have a bunch of listings that were each averaging 5 to 7 showings a week. When I left town, I told my higher priced listings to expect a very quiet week. Last week the low priced listings were shown slightly less than average. Of the two higher priced listings, one was shown once and the other had no showings. Both were shown twice today. Tax season is now behind us. The next 4 to 6 weeks will be very very telling as to the health of the market.

[sdrealtor]

A quick word of advice from my 10 + years of corporate sales experience. Be careful with those 200% of quota years, they’ll often get you fired in a year or two. Here’s the cycle I’ve seen (and personally experienced) over and over again. Young stud sales guy has great 200% of quota year by busting his butt. Get’s rewarded with a nice bonus, lots of kudos, trip to Rome/Austraila/UK and a nice plaque. Next year some financial guy putting the sales plan takes your record year numbers that will be difficult to replicate and gives you a quota of double your previous year production (or 400% of last years quota). You bust your butt and amazing produce a 50% increase over the last year which puts you at 75% of quota. Your thrilled at what you accomplished and management responds by splitting your territory in half and replacing you will two new young studs. I’ve seen it happen more times than I count.

Slow and steady growth will make for a longer happier corporate sales life.

[sdrealtor]

I come from on of those places back east where “most people never leave” and I’ll never go back for more than a visit. While SD is definitely more transient than many places there is a large and stable population committed to life here. It’s pretty funny but most people experience exactly what you have. The first three years, newcomers are excited to be here, typically renting and running around to all the fun places SD has to offer. They hold onto the identity of where they are from spending weekends at bars rooting for the Sox/Pats/Celtics, Yanks/Knick/Giants, Mets/Nets/Jets, Phils/Eagles/Sixers never truly embracing their new home nor trying to assimilate to life in a more diverse place than they came from. By diverse I mean everyone didnt go to the same school or grow up the same place. It becomes self selecting and most of the people you meet are in the same situation. Hence you think it is more transient than it actually is. After 3 years, people who are committed to staying begin to lay down roots and meet others who are equally committed. After that it becomes alot less transient.

My wife and I went through this ourselves and I have seen newbies go through this over and over again. Some make it and will stay forever….some don’t.

[sdrealtor]

Boston and OC
Just curious as to how old you are and how long you’ve been at the corporate sales gig?

[sdrealtor]

Sorry to jump in but this smacks of the “but it’s different in (fill-in the blank..in this case Boston) here” argument permeated by the permabulls. BTW, I havent checked lately but distinctly remember SD having one of the most highly educated populaces in the USA. We may be underpaid but we sure aren’t stupid. We are willing to make less to live in a better place. It’s sounds like you are resigned to this fact as well with a return planned in a couple years.

BTW, I have two master degrees and a wife that stays home with my kids also.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not one for presenting analysis on data that is inherently flawed in so many respects. Did you read my comments on “How Much did this house sell for?” The data is riddled with examples like this. This sale was reported as a $1M sale when it was actually 10% less. This was a real sale by an agent that wanted to “keep the comps up” in their neighborhood and was willing to pay the extra taxes. Things like this happen all the time and distort the data so as to make much of it meaningless. That is why I don’t give a lot of creedence to “birds eye view” analysis in real estate and why I say the best analysis is from a local agent with the knowledge, skills and experience to do so. Most don’t posses this things, so the laughter I heard when I suggested this is completely understood. As for Bob, I dont have anything personal against him. I just have a hard time when ANYONE sitting behind a desk tries to come off as an expert without wearing out a lot of shoe leather.

[sdrealtor]

I’m Back!

Nice mea culpa! Like I always say…..question everything and assume nothing. He assumed and got egg on his face. It’s interesting that he claims he was led to beleive otherwise….I wonder who if anyone actually led him to beleive this or was he simply cutting corners on his analysis and not really asking the right questions?

The problem with what he does is he breaks down the data on a macro level without really understanding it on a micro level. Without an understanding of the micro level its nearly impossible to present an accurate picture. Here’s an example..I call this

How much did this house sell for?

Joe Realtor lists a house for $1M. The first weekend he holds an open house and decides he loves it himself and wants to buy it. He buys the house with 20% down and it is reported as a sale for $1M. However, he was paid a $50,000 commission (5%- the market average). The seller also paid 1 point on his loan. Through the course of his inspection he found several issues that he requested the seller to address. In lieu of fixing them the seller gave him a $15,000 credit for paint, carpet and repairs. HOW MUCH DID THIS HOUSE REALLY SELL FOR?

BTW, This happens all the time.

Wish me luck…tonite I get the pleasure of presenting my clients offer to a seller and explaining why we beleive his house is worth $100,000 less than he beleives without even accounting for a downturn. I suspect it wont be the first time someone throws me out of their home nor will it be the last. Don’t you wish you had my job?

[sdrealtor]

Sorry folks but I’m on vacation.
Equalizer, Without getting into too much detail I could give your CPA a run for his money on tax issues as well as your financial planner, handyman, pta president or chamber of commerce president. The points you raise are great and probably some of the major reasons my clients use me. While they are great bonuses to my clients, giving tax advice or construction issue (though I often do with a disclaimer) is really best left to personal tax advisors and general contractors.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but that just doesnt happen. It would be extraordinarily difficult. BTW It’s 92011 not 92111. The sales prior to June 2005 for 92011 are in 92009. Even after the switch alot of the realtors still put listings in 92011 in 92009. Some still do today! Similarly, 92008 was split into 92008 and 92010 last year. Two years ago 92083 was split into 92083 and 92081 in Vista. Before that 92069 was split into 92069 and 92078 in San Marcos. These are just a few of the changes that make the data flawed in major ways. There are many many more challenges with the data then you could beleive.

Your statement that if they didnt restate things the MLS reports and statistics would be meaningless is not far from the truth. You really need an indepth knowledge about a specific area to know whats going on. All this analysis is good and fine but as I have said many times…there are numerous flaws in the data collection. The best analysis on what is going on still comes from an experienced, knowledgable local realtor or appraiser.

[Author]

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