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sdrealtor
Participantnew renter,
I relie on no one for my opinions, surely not a bunch of Realtors or the REIC. You seem a bit new around here so let me explain. I have an extensive background in market analytics, a couple masters degrees and an inactive CPA to boot. Initially, I expected it to fall faster but I adjust with what I see actually happening as I learn. Also, RE does not put food on the table for me. It is something I do because I genuinely enjoy it. My portfolio as well as the two successful non-RE businesses ensures that my life will be wine and roses for a long time to come.Buying right now is a very personal decision and one that may not be right for you. For others it is. It’s really that simple.
As for the sales volume YOY, I didnt check and dont really care. Prices are set on the margin and it is the imbalance between supply and demand that causes changes in pricing. Sales might be down a little but inventory is way way down. This imbalance is keeping prices relatively stable in the face of all the issues we all know so well. Right or wrong, it is what is occuring today.
I also agree with you that CV wont be insulated. DM I’m not so sure about. The real issue for you is how long you are willing to wait. To put numbers on it, $50k yearly declines for homes currently selling for roughly $1M today would be pretty robust IMHO. If you are looking at homes in that range I’d be prepared to wait 5 years for it to get down to $750K or even $800K. By them you will be looking at nominal declines of 30% over a period of 8 years with another 20 to 30% loss due to inflation. If that is what you are waiting for, I believe you have a fair chance to get it. If you are looking for more, I think you might be left waiting for more.
May 12, 2007 at 5:26 PM in reply to: Here is your motivation TO WAIT!!!!! $200/sqft in Mission Viejo! #52633ParticipantI’m confused about the first one?
“Buyer has bought low and can afford to kill the market”
Contrasts with
“Short sale” and “perhaps he refinanced a few times and now wants to get rid of all his debt problems”
The listing price is irrelevant in a short sale situation. They could be desparate to get out and put it on very very low to create a bidding frenzy to get the highest offer possible on the table in a very short period of time to see whether the bank will go for it. When the house closes for that price you will have a meaningful data point. Right now its meaningless.
ParticipantCmon Perry, you know I’m just ribbing you.
ParticipantPC
You sound like a grumpy old bachelor. You wouldnt want to live next to me. I have kids and even though I have a spectacular backyard my kids like to play out front because thats where the other kids are. Our garage door is open and the kids play in it, in the driveway and out in the street. Tons of kids everywhere, just the way we like it!
SDRParticipantToo much at stake not to go with someone you feel comfortable with. Personally I refer out business in areas I dont know very well, particularly with buyers. I don’t feel like I can represent people’s absolute best interests properly in all areas. Unless you know the area well, you could easily put a client into a property with neighborhood issues that an outsider couldnt know. Thats not something I’m willing to risk for my clients. Life is too short and I am also not willing to spend my time driving to South Bay, East County, Temecula etc. Others feel differently and will go wherever the business is. SD R seems to spread his wings quite a bit and as far as I can see he does a good job for his clients. That probably isnt the case with most realtors. If she isnt up to the task, you need to get better representation.
ParticipantJust ran a quick report on CV ZIP (92130) for the last 4 days.
1 New Listing
2 Fell out of escrow
8 Went into escrow
3 closed escrowDoes that look like a weak market to anyone?
It looks pretty hott to moi!
ParticipantNew renter
You are correct that Carmel Knolls is in the heart of CV and I just happened to miss that post. If you read my f/u, I asked for someone to find one in the heart of CV and you did. I mentioned that I know they are there. I have a client who I spent about 8 months looking in CV. Ultimately, he decided the risk was too high there and that there wasnt anything unique about it other than location for his tastes. We are now looking in DM at much higher priced homes and have been for about 6 months. BTW, the ugly REO on Durango was an ugly house with DM Heights Rd as its backyard. I certainly wouldnt consider that representative of what is happening in Del Mar.As for you comments about weakness in CV, I dont agree. Inventory is close to half of what it was last year and pending are up. Alot of the new construction in CV is finishing up as well minimizing competition for resales. I am not saying that prices are going up in CV because they arent as far as I can see. What I am seeing there is the same thing I see in Encinitas/South Carlsbad. Prices have fallen about 10% off the peak and buyers are coming back more decisively this year due to the new lower prices. Last year, sellers were in denial and buyers were scared. Sellers that priced appropriately last year sold. Sellers that didnt price appropriately last year are facing slightly lower prices if they still want to sell this year but stronger demand from more motivated buyers. I expect, this demand rally will sputter out by mid-August and that we will see a small price decline in Fall/Winter and then healthy demand again next Spring. This will continue on for many years.
ParticipantAN,
A quick geography lesson. City boundaries, School district boundaries and yes even ZIP Code Boundaries are not the same. The house on Moonflower is in Pacific Highlands Ranch (I believe). Technically it might be in the same ZIP and schoold district but ask anyone who lives in CV and they will say it is quastionable as to whether that is part of CV. Its like 92014 (Del Mar) CV neighbor to the west. There are many houses west of 5 that are in the SD City limits. Askthose owners and they live in Del Mar. Ask someone in the village or the colony areas of Del Mar and they would say you live in SD.Rather than arguing semantics, it would be better for someone to come up with an example in the Heart of CV in one of the prime neighborhoods like Sonoma near Ashley Falls Elementary. That would be a real sign of decline in CV. I’m sure there are some there.
sdr
ParticipantI agree that it wsnt just realtors that got caught in the crunch but what struck me is that these were not run of the mill agents. These were relatively top producers that over leveraged themselves, overpromised to clients and tried to do so with a business model that fell apart when the volume dried up. It was almost as if they mini verions of Ipayone.
I doubt 30 to 50% of transactions were serial flippers in SD. I would be surprised if it was even 10%.
ParticipantCritter thats not really CV. It’s closer to PQ than CV.
Participantkev
just me being a smartass as usual re fullerton. I agree that 120K is a top 10% income but Laguna/Dana Point is a top 1 to 3% location. I just dont see an 1800 sq ft home on a 120k income as realistic for a place like that unless you have a nice chunk to put down. the re are lots of other nice places that will be cheaper but I think your initial post didnt pass my reasonableness test.ParticipantI think it is one of several reasonable scenarios. My guess if this were to come to pass is that it would take 5 years rather than 3 for 20% plus rent and 20% minus prices.
ParticipantDelsionary! Laguna Niguel/Dana Point is some of the nicest RE in the country. A 2 earner white collar family with average jobs should earn $150K easily in this area. That is a very middle class situation around here and certainly not one destined to live in LN/DP in a nice size home. I’d put your 120K Household in a townhome in those areas for reasonableness. For a nice size detached home, I’m thinking Fullerton.
ParticipantBugs
Good points and I echo them as well. I love Carlsbad, I live in Carlsbad (not quite as long as you); but I never forget what it is vs. what it isn’t either. It is and will continue to be a wonderful place to live and raise a family. But to think that it will ever be a hot spot for Large Corporations is well, more than a little hopefull and very naive.sdr
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