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DaCounselor.
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May 10, 2007 at 1:27 PM #52346May 10, 2007 at 1:34 PM #52348
sdrealtor
ParticipantOzman,
Actually I know both properties very, very, very well. In fact, the wife of the seller’s for the one sold last year was a very dear friend of my wife. The price they took was about 75K low at the time and they knew it. The agents overpriced the home by at least $100K out of the gate and by the time an offer came in the sellers were so panicked they just wanted out and took a very low offer unecessarily. Their listing agents begged them not to but they did anyway. Had it been listed around $1.125M out of the gate it would have sold far quicker and for more. It was a nice house but on a fairly well traveled street in LCV. That house should definitely have sold for $1.1M last year. I was in this house several times and can assure you that it did not have superior upgrades, did not have a superior location and had an inferior North facing yard.The house that just sold was on one of the best cul de sac locations in LCV and definitely commanded a premium. That house would have easily sold for $1.125 to $1.15M last year. It had equal or better upgrades, an in ground spa (the other had nothing out back but grass), a cul de sac location and a very desireable southwest facing yard. By my calculations that is about 5% off the top.
The data you brought was fact but without intimate knowledge of the situations it was easy to misinterpret what really happened. Unfortunately, you just lobbed a softball down the middle of my strike zone.
May 10, 2007 at 1:42 PM #52353DaCounselor
ParticipantWho are you when you are up and dressed, anyway? What type of counsel do you provide? Are we talking social worker, here, or what?
_________________________I provide legal counsel.
NLTSD Guy – I am neither a buyer or seller, but an owner. Regarding consumer credit, I really don’t know enough about the input data to draw any conclusions. I do know that many financially savvy folks take on debt when and where it makes sense and reduce debt when and where it makes sense, for whatever that’s worth.
May 10, 2007 at 1:59 PM #52356Ozzie
ParticipantSDR and SD R
As for condos, I don’t follow them at all so I have no idea what they are doing and frankly I don’t care.
As for those two comps I know them much better than you think since I’m a neighbor. The one that just sold could have easily gotten over $1.1 if they would have listed it at that price in the beginning rather than $1,250,000 or whatever they listed it for. The one on Serbal is far nicer IMO both inside and out so maybe they could have also gotten over $1.1mm but they didn’t because buyer sentiment was so bad last summer.
Also the cul de sac location yeilding a premium is very misleading as the one on Camino Serbal is directly across the street from the Cul De Sac so their kids can and do play on that Cul De Sac, and any noise or traffic concerns are also present on Sitio Mirto and Sitio Olmo since those are tiny Cul De Sacs that only go 3 houses deep so they are literally 30 yards from Camino Serbal.
The peak for LCV was summer 2004 and prices have been stagnant to down 10% since then with a huge drop off in demand peaking last summer. LC Oaks had a lot to do with that. That excess supply where the builders are actually mandated to sell or reduce prices has largely vanished and I’m seeing the market firming.
One reason you will see prices here higher in the coming years is all the new commercial development being done near Bressi in the Carlsbad/Vista business corridor. There’s a huge supply of new buildngs going up and they will lower their prices until they fill them up. The folks with families will want to be in a good school district with an easy commute. I know several large businesses buildng their own buildings who will vacating SD and Sorrento Valley for Carlsbad because of price and also the proximity to Carlsbad airport where they have their private jets. Will CEO’s move their entire companies because they want a 5 minute commute to their jets? Yes, they will.
May 10, 2007 at 2:13 PM #52360HereWeGo
ParticipantOzzie-
Is there much in the way of commercial office/white collar development along the 56 corridor?May 10, 2007 at 2:35 PM #52368ParticipantOzman,
Like I said I was in Serbal many, many times and it was not far nicer. The took less because their agents blew it out of the gate and they panicked. Plain and simple, the agents were hungry for market share and took every overpriced listing in LCV. They actually sold less than half of them and their reputation seems to have suffered a bit.As for the cul de sac premium being misleading, you must live on Serbal. Hundreds of cars drive down Serbal every day while you can count traffic on Mirto on your digits. There is a big difference living on a cul de sac and across from one. We both know it. Sitio Olmo, Mirto, Abeto, the Northwest end of Serbal and Oliva are the prime locations in the LCV. Surely, you cant argue that.
In fact, another realtor last year bought a house on Abeto after living on Serbal across from the cul de sac paying a large premium to do so. Maybe it was you?
The point is while buyer sentiment is defintely up and homes are selling more briskly in the San Dieguito School District-prices are defintely not up from last year and can easily be shown to be down 5%. If you want to look in your home tract, look at the closed sales on Arrayan (both), Annanas, Robledo, Cereza, Coco, Pinon, Ciruela, Tulipero, Castana, Pimentera etc. While each of these homes would have struggled more to sell last year they would have sold for more.
BTW, I do agree that the Mirto house could have gotten a little more if they werent so overpriced out of the gate.
If you want take a look at the 12 homes that closed between 1/1/06 and 5/10/06 and let me know which one would sell for the same or more today? I can’t think of one.
May 10, 2007 at 2:37 PM #52373Bugs
ParticipantI like Carlsbad, I live in Carlsbad (15 years now); but I never forget what it is vs. what it isn’t.
The CEOs of companies large enough to own jets don’t live in Carlsbad and won’t live in Carlsbad. They probably won’t live in Encinitas, either. They’re in Del Mar, La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, etc.. There’s no part of Carlsbad that will even directly compete with those areas for the high rollers.
And since I prefer to use numbers to back my opinions, here’s a couple numbers for you:
The MLS reports that in 2006 there were a total of 7 sales above $2,000,000 in all of Carlsbad. Of these, 2 were oceanfront properties that back to the water (one was purchased for development of a hotel, not as a residence). Excluding those sales, the other 5 sales sold between $2,000,000 – $2,650,000.
Neighboring Encinitas is a little different: In 2006 Encinitas had 34 sales in excess of $2,000,000; of those, there were 8 sales in excess of $2,650,000.
Going back farther, the MLS reports a total of 129 sales in Encinitas in excess of $2,000,000; Carlsbad has a total of 39 such sales.
If Carlsbad isn’t even equal to Encinitas, it’s not even close to Rancho Santa Fe, which is where your jet setting CEOs are more likely to reside. RSF showed 627 sales total, and 97 such sales in 2006 alone. Not 39/7.
I think you’re looking way into the future with those forecasts. There are already a lot of vacant industrial and office properties within a 5-minute drive of So. Carlsbad and so far the N.SD companies haven’t been relocating.
So. Carlsbad will eventually mature and stabilize, at which point it will act less like a boomtown and more like a Scripps or Pt. Loma; areas where listings only come up occasionally. But before that happens they have to get done with building out all the little infil subdivisions fist, and that isn’t going to happen any time soon. It may happen by the end of the next cycle, but it certainly isn’t going to happen in the next 12 months.
May 10, 2007 at 2:45 PM #52375ParticipantHerewego,
Your question wasn’t directed to me but I can answer it any way. Hwy 56 links up the I-5 and I-15 corridors, and there are ample office and industrial projects on either end. In addition, there are office projects and areas zoned for office projects all along the freeway. It’s going to take a while before much development occurs there because we’re not done with the other areas like Poway, Rancho Bernardo or even Sorrento yet. But I’m sure Hwy-56 will eventually end up looking a lot like Hwy-78 (only newer) before its all over.
May 10, 2007 at 2:52 PM #52376ParticipantBugs
Good points and I echo them as well. I love Carlsbad, I live in Carlsbad (not quite as long as you); but I never forget what it is vs. what it isn’t either. It is and will continue to be a wonderful place to live and raise a family. But to think that it will ever be a hot spot for Large Corporations is well, more than a little hopefull and very naive.sdr
May 10, 2007 at 3:01 PM #52377El Jefe
ParticipantLong live Elm Avenue…
May 10, 2007 at 3:02 PM #52378The-Shoveler
ParticipantNor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy
DaCounselor
One last question,
Would you buy your home now (at current market rate) if you did not already own it ??
I would not buy my current one now (at current market rate) but I don’t plan to sell it either (just for the record).
May 10, 2007 at 4:01 PM #52388an
ParticipantCompanies don’t usually relocate just because it’s a little cheaper to rent/buy. If that’s the case, they all would move to the mid-west already. QCOM is well established in Sorrento Valley. They’re not going anywhere. As we speak, they’re taking over other company’s building in Sorrento Valley and make it their own as well as building more in Sorrento Valley. Other companies who are in CDMA business won’t be moving to far from QCOM either. Also, when a large corp move, they will have to consider the cost of the move as well as the possibility of losing some key employees if the new place will be too far from where they live.
May 10, 2007 at 4:41 PM #52393ParticipantWasn’t Qualcomm’s choice of locations heavily influenced by its proximity to UCSD?
May 10, 2007 at 4:45 PM #52394ParticipantI think so. Considering the founder of QCOM taught at UCSD and donated a huge amount of money to UCSD.
May 10, 2007 at 4:50 PM #52395ParticipantI’m no techie, so forgive the question: I was under the impression that Qualcomm’s technology was an offshoot of work done at UCSD, and that the wireless and biotech research that goes on at the University has a lot to do with Sorrento Valley’s status as a tech hub.
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