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sdrealtor
ParticipantNew listings 2 (7) –
New Pendings of 2 (11)
Thats 0
Closed sales at 2 (11)
Total houses for sale 5 (32) with median of $1.295M (didnt record).
There were 22 on the market 2 years ago with a 875K median.
More of the same with one change. There are now no homes listed under $1.15M here. I think that is an artifact of the lower range selling and the higher stagnating a bit.
The markets feel like they have gotten ahead of themselves a bit and are being held up by low inventory. Seasonality should return this Fall and there should be some give back this Fall. Should be….
ParticipantI definitely like to argue and debate ideas.
No interpretation of data is needed. It is raw data from the MLS database. It doesn’t need me to speak for it. It speaks for itself
You don’t need to ask him to break out his books. I can do it for you all via PM
As for the GtSD thread that one serves a few purposes. It exposes a few myths:
The demise of SD/Coastal CA myth that the media has perpetuated for decades.
It exposes the myth of those who leave under the guise of political reasons but are really motivated by personal reasons which are almost exclusively financial. Some leave for personal reasons related to family. Many either cant afford to stay or more often than not cant afford to live the lifestyle they think they deserve based upon the real estate wealth they were gifted living here. I see this over and over again. There is no shame in any of this but dont throw CA under the bus when you leave. It was good to you!
And the thread is fun!
ParticipantOne last thing. I went on the RDFN site and they display each buyers agent’s production over the last 12 months. I then went to the MLS and ran the actual production for each agent. Every single agents production was inflated by 30 to 50%!
ParticipantIm not overlooking anything. It was white collar crime and appears to be a cover up by the other execs. It is an indictment of leadership of a trade association not the industry.
FWIW there are plenty of problems with the industry as there are all industries. The compensation of agents persists because it is what works.
Ive been doing this for over two decades. Ive made people millions, never gotten so much as an irate call from a past client, never had a single black mark, have kept far more people out of making mistakes by advising against things that personally cost me career earnings that must be close to $1M over those two decades. Someone with my experience, track record and skills would not have a hard time justifying a billing rate of $100/hour. Lets cut that in half to $50/hour
I go out with people all the time for 4 hours. Potential buyers arent going to write me a $200 check each time I do that let alone $400. Most of them end up not buying anything
My clients call/text me all the time. There is NWIH they would pay me each time they call or text for advice or with a question. Most of them end up not buying anything
I spend hours doing research for my clients trying to find them the right thing. they would not react kindly to weekly bills of $200 to $500 just for the work I do behind the scenes. Most of them end up not buying anything
If I could only bill those that actually complete a transaction I would be better off working at In n Out, we all would and the industry could not exist.
The system is what it is because it has evolved over many years with countless disintermediation attempts but nothing else works
If you have a better way Im all ears. Billions have been spent trying to find one by some pretty sharp folks
ParticipantIf you want to be proven wrong you can DM his name. I can prove otherwise and will DM you his actual production not his Pollyanna façade. I dont know where he works but this is an example from your area. There are 4 male RDFN buyers agents who serve San Marcos area. Here is their Summer production this year.
Perhaps your friend is chasing buyers but not producing like the rest and worried about job security as they have already cut 1/3rd nationwide
1 sale this Summer
None Since February
1 sale this Summer
2 Sales this Summer
ParticipantDo I need to remind you this is Piggington. In God we trust everyone else bring data. Here is data from earnings call
transactions down 33%
45% of transactions were done by non-redfin agents. They were referred to independent agents
2022 was already a low volume year and 2023 is far worse.
Lets go with 2022 as base year = 100
100 – 33% of transactions = 67
67 x 55% of transactions by in house agents =37
RDFN agents did 37% the number of transactions as they did in 2022!
That’s scorched earth not doing great!
RDFN is planning to phase out even more and take that to 55% or more referred out next year and transaction counts are still dropping.
Its likely 70% of their in house business is gone next year if not more!
Me thinks your friend has adopted the realtor Pollyanna façade
As for SDAR that was embezzlement by management of a trade association plain and simple. That individual should be in jail and likely will be once things shake out over time. It has nothing to do with the realtors or the profession. Its white collar crime which exists in every industry
ParticipantWith all due respect this is complete and utter BS. Lets start here with my post earlier today
July 2023 housing data (charts only but the short version is more standoff)
I have no personal stake in what happens. I have created a financial picture that does not depend upon income from selling real estate. I still stay engaged in the business but it really doesnt impact my personal finances
Now onto Redfin. They had a business model which couldnt make money in the best of times and I knew that because I understand the economics of real estate brokerage. Now we are in a very tough market and they are tossing out their business model and stepping into the traditional model. It was never gonna work.
How about your Redfin buddy? How is he doing? Still with them? Still in the business? Of course not!
Onto econprof who i have no issue with moving to Utah. What I have an issue with is him playing politics and throwing CA under the bus. he claims to have been an expert economist, contractor and investor. he was here long enough to be set for life along with future generations of his family yet he made one bad decision with SD real estate after another. I rib him because he just wants to blame CA rather than taking personal responsibility for his own decisions.
As for SDAR, I was never a member and never a fan of that organization. I have always stayed with the better run Board up in North County (NSDCAR). Even still they are all trying to hold onto their personal fifedoms across the country and Id rather see the whole thing consolidated nationally. But again SDAR? Not my problem
ParticipantTemperatures finally cooling with highs not reaching 100 for the first time this Summer. Real estate market continuing to cool here.
Companies are calling workers back. I understand the airport in San Diego has been extraordinarily busy of late on Mondays with some formerly remote workers being told to show up in the office or you have two weeks notice and no severance. One more headwind the zoom cities are gonna battle
ParticipantNew 14 (9) –
Pending 16(12) –
Thats -2
Closed 13 (120) –
Total houses on the market 83 (132 last year) with a median of 2.3M (1.99M). Two years ago 86 with median of $1.985M
Peak inventory behind us and should decline from here to y/e. We hit 93 in mid July and never reached 100 this year.
ParticipantNew listings 6 (7) –
New Pendings of 6 (10)
Thats 0
Closed sales at 3 (4)
Total houses for sale 5 (38) with median of $1.2M ($985K).
There were 20 on the market 2 years ago with a 875K median.
Inventory getting worse. Market here stable as they come and should continue to prosper. The only thing holding it back IMO is low turnover. There are still lots of older homes in need of attention that are not turning over and slowing the pace of gentrification. Nonetheless the long term future looks great here
ParticipantIts all here in the conference call transcript from yesterday if you understand how to read between the lines
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6eb760bc-4efa-34e4-94ab-4c064193880a/redfin-rdfn-q2-2023.html
I knew this was coming based upon the falling transaction volume and bought puts two days.
Just closed them out for a 5X profit this morning.
Put a fork in that model.
ParticipantNew 14 (16) –
Pending 20(21) –
Thats -6
Closed 20 (16) –
Total houses on the market 87 (129 last year) with a median of 2.395M (1.95M). Two years ago 91 with median of $2M
Something I starting to see is an increase in homes getting delisted. Folks that realized they missed the peak season and either staying put or renting it out. Just a few so far but expect to see more ahead
ParticipantNew listings 3 (7) –
New Pendings of 5 (7)
Thats -2
Closed sales at 5 (6)
Total houses for sale 7 (41) with median of $1.15M ($979K).
There were 18 on the market 2 years ago with a 875K median.
Inventory is muddling along in this range and doesnt look like it will get better anytime soon
ParticipantAbsolutely to each his own. Go where you love or where it meets your needs. That is not the issue. It’s trashing the place you left because you couldn’t have the life you want there. That’s on you, not here. This place is doing just fine and will continue to prosper even more over time. Everything is in place here for that
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