[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I must say I’m shocked at all the recent purchases from members of this site, OCRenter, etc. And now another is thinking about pulling the trigger.

It seems like not long ago I was wondering when the general attitude on this forum would start to shift towards pro-buy.

About the ONLY “plus” I see at the moment to pulling the trigger are lower rates. Everything I see and read points to prices going down significantly, the only question is how quickly. Even Forbes is predicting a ~20% decline in San Diego this year.

If you wanted to live in SEH, I would agree it’s probably seen the majority of it’s punishment. But I don’t get the impression that is where you really want to live.

Wage inflation? Anytime in the immediate future? I don’t see it.

I’ve got major wife pressure, and I was thinking to myself Q4 of this year would be the earliest I would even consider it. I think that will probably be early as well for the price range, but will remove hopefully another 10-20% of price decline risk.

[sdnerd]

I must say I’m shocked at all the recent purchases from members of this site, OCRenter, etc. And now another is thinking about pulling the trigger.

It seems like not long ago I was wondering when the general attitude on this forum would start to shift towards pro-buy.

About the ONLY “plus” I see at the moment to pulling the trigger are lower rates. Everything I see and read points to prices going down significantly, the only question is how quickly. Even Forbes is predicting a ~20% decline in San Diego this year.

If you wanted to live in SEH, I would agree it’s probably seen the majority of it’s punishment. But I don’t get the impression that is where you really want to live.

Wage inflation? Anytime in the immediate future? I don’t see it.

I’ve got major wife pressure, and I was thinking to myself Q4 of this year would be the earliest I would even consider it. I think that will probably be early as well for the price range, but will remove hopefully another 10-20% of price decline risk.

[sdnerd]

I must say I’m shocked at all the recent purchases from members of this site, OCRenter, etc. And now another is thinking about pulling the trigger.

It seems like not long ago I was wondering when the general attitude on this forum would start to shift towards pro-buy.

About the ONLY “plus” I see at the moment to pulling the trigger are lower rates. Everything I see and read points to prices going down significantly, the only question is how quickly. Even Forbes is predicting a ~20% decline in San Diego this year.

If you wanted to live in SEH, I would agree it’s probably seen the majority of it’s punishment. But I don’t get the impression that is where you really want to live.

Wage inflation? Anytime in the immediate future? I don’t see it.

I’ve got major wife pressure, and I was thinking to myself Q4 of this year would be the earliest I would even consider it. I think that will probably be early as well for the price range, but will remove hopefully another 10-20% of price decline risk.

[sdnerd]

I must say I’m shocked at all the recent purchases from members of this site, OCRenter, etc. And now another is thinking about pulling the trigger.

It seems like not long ago I was wondering when the general attitude on this forum would start to shift towards pro-buy.

About the ONLY “plus” I see at the moment to pulling the trigger are lower rates. Everything I see and read points to prices going down significantly, the only question is how quickly. Even Forbes is predicting a ~20% decline in San Diego this year.

If you wanted to live in SEH, I would agree it’s probably seen the majority of it’s punishment. But I don’t get the impression that is where you really want to live.

Wage inflation? Anytime in the immediate future? I don’t see it.

I’ve got major wife pressure, and I was thinking to myself Q4 of this year would be the earliest I would even consider it. I think that will probably be early as well for the price range, but will remove hopefully another 10-20% of price decline risk.

[sdnerd]

I must say I’m shocked at all the recent purchases from members of this site, OCRenter, etc. And now another is thinking about pulling the trigger.

It seems like not long ago I was wondering when the general attitude on this forum would start to shift towards pro-buy.

About the ONLY “plus” I see at the moment to pulling the trigger are lower rates. Everything I see and read points to prices going down significantly, the only question is how quickly. Even Forbes is predicting a ~20% decline in San Diego this year.

If you wanted to live in SEH, I would agree it’s probably seen the majority of it’s punishment. But I don’t get the impression that is where you really want to live.

Wage inflation? Anytime in the immediate future? I don’t see it.

I’ve got major wife pressure, and I was thinking to myself Q4 of this year would be the earliest I would even consider it. I think that will probably be early as well for the price range, but will remove hopefully another 10-20% of price decline risk.

[sdnerd]

I’m just going to echo the sentiment that it all depends on unemployment.

The end of the year is coming up, and that’s when many companies make their cuts. And if you take a drive through any of the various tech hubs you’ll see a LOT of vacant office space.

If Qualcomm or some of the other big players start making bigger cuts, it could get ugly.

If unemployment stays somewhat in check into next year, I agree there could be more activity out there.

[sdnerd]

I’m just going to echo the sentiment that it all depends on unemployment.

The end of the year is coming up, and that’s when many companies make their cuts. And if you take a drive through any of the various tech hubs you’ll see a LOT of vacant office space.

If Qualcomm or some of the other big players start making bigger cuts, it could get ugly.

If unemployment stays somewhat in check into next year, I agree there could be more activity out there.

[sdnerd]

I’m just going to echo the sentiment that it all depends on unemployment.

The end of the year is coming up, and that’s when many companies make their cuts. And if you take a drive through any of the various tech hubs you’ll see a LOT of vacant office space.

If Qualcomm or some of the other big players start making bigger cuts, it could get ugly.

If unemployment stays somewhat in check into next year, I agree there could be more activity out there.

[sdnerd]

I’m just going to echo the sentiment that it all depends on unemployment.

The end of the year is coming up, and that’s when many companies make their cuts. And if you take a drive through any of the various tech hubs you’ll see a LOT of vacant office space.

If Qualcomm or some of the other big players start making bigger cuts, it could get ugly.

If unemployment stays somewhat in check into next year, I agree there could be more activity out there.

[sdnerd]

I’m just going to echo the sentiment that it all depends on unemployment.

The end of the year is coming up, and that’s when many companies make their cuts. And if you take a drive through any of the various tech hubs you’ll see a LOT of vacant office space.

If Qualcomm or some of the other big players start making bigger cuts, it could get ugly.

If unemployment stays somewhat in check into next year, I agree there could be more activity out there.

[Author]

Posts