[sdnerd]

It’ll be curious to see what ends up happening.

We have an election year, and the fact that nobody wants the economy to completely fail. I just can’t see the government letting this ship go over the cliff, at least without trying every possible last ditch effort to prevent it.

As much as many of us would like homes to be half priced over the next few years – the consequences of that could be drastic.

If they cut the rates again and allow some people to lock their rate for 7 years. That might stop a wave of foreclosures, and keep people in their homes paying their bills. Fewer banks go under, etc. Maybe prices won’t fall of the cliff, but dip a bit and then stay stagnant 10 years letting inflation ‘lower housing prices’.

A percentage of people who made stupid financial decisions aren’t punished, and get to free pass out of financial ruin. Nobody said life was fair – pretty sure that is rule #1 or 2 in the book of life as much as it may suck.

[sdnerd]

Thanks for the input.

I have a 5 year IO loan in the 4.x range – with a little over a year left before it adjusts, that’s why my current monthly is low.

I had considered dumping (should have last year). What’s always stopped me is if we move out and rent we are going to be spending ~20k/yr on rent. Effectively it’s depreciating at nearly the same amount my rent cost would be elsewhere.

I’m guessing I could dump the place today for $225-230k (maybe?). After fees, I’d basically walk away from the table not owing anything, but not leaving with anything either. Decent hit, but not too bad considering I’ve livered here ~4 years which helps ease the down payment loss pain.

If I live here another 2 years before buying (Dec ’09), that’s ~40k in rent. If 2 years turns to 3, that’s $60k… etc. If my bottom here is $180k, and I am going to live here at least another 1-2 years would it really make sense to bail now if I can only sell for $220k? Especially if I don’t need to sell to buy a new home. I can ride the market out on this 1 bedroom. (Part of the reason I bought a 1 bedroom to begin with)

There’s also a cost in moving out, then buying and having to move again should I buy a year or two later.

Also I agree that Dec ’08 will probably be early, so I’m leaning towards early ’09. But even then I do not expect that to be the bottom by any means. At the same time, after a few years into marriage it’d be nice to settle in a nice home. Especially if kids come into the picture in the next couple of years. Even if there is still another 10-15% correction left to go at that point – again there is cost in waiting, renting, etc.

Not an easy decision, and it’s been racking my brain.

[sdnerd]

Thanks for the input.

I have a 5 year IO loan in the 4.x range – with a little over a year left before it adjusts, that’s why my current monthly is low.

I had considered dumping (should have last year). What’s always stopped me is if we move out and rent we are going to be spending ~20k/yr on rent. Effectively it’s depreciating at nearly the same amount my rent cost would be elsewhere.

I’m guessing I could dump the place today for $225-230k (maybe?). After fees, I’d basically walk away from the table not owing anything, but not leaving with anything either. Decent hit, but not too bad considering I’ve livered here ~4 years which helps ease the down payment loss pain.

If I live here another 2 years before buying (Dec ’09), that’s ~40k in rent. If 2 years turns to 3, that’s $60k… etc. If my bottom here is $180k, and I am going to live here at least another 1-2 years would it really make sense to bail now if I can only sell for $220k? Especially if I don’t need to sell to buy a new home. I can ride the market out on this 1 bedroom. (Part of the reason I bought a 1 bedroom to begin with)

There’s also a cost in moving out, then buying and having to move again should I buy a year or two later.

Also I agree that Dec ’08 will probably be early, so I’m leaning towards early ’09. But even then I do not expect that to be the bottom by any means. At the same time, after a few years into marriage it’d be nice to settle in a nice home. Especially if kids come into the picture in the next couple of years. Even if there is still another 10-15% correction left to go at that point – again there is cost in waiting, renting, etc.

Not an easy decision, and it’s been racking my brain.

[sdnerd]

Thanks for the input.

I have a 5 year IO loan in the 4.x range – with a little over a year left before it adjusts, that’s why my current monthly is low.

I had considered dumping (should have last year). What’s always stopped me is if we move out and rent we are going to be spending ~20k/yr on rent. Effectively it’s depreciating at nearly the same amount my rent cost would be elsewhere.

I’m guessing I could dump the place today for $225-230k (maybe?). After fees, I’d basically walk away from the table not owing anything, but not leaving with anything either. Decent hit, but not too bad considering I’ve livered here ~4 years which helps ease the down payment loss pain.

If I live here another 2 years before buying (Dec ’09), that’s ~40k in rent. If 2 years turns to 3, that’s $60k… etc. If my bottom here is $180k, and I am going to live here at least another 1-2 years would it really make sense to bail now if I can only sell for $220k? Especially if I don’t need to sell to buy a new home. I can ride the market out on this 1 bedroom. (Part of the reason I bought a 1 bedroom to begin with)

There’s also a cost in moving out, then buying and having to move again should I buy a year or two later.

Also I agree that Dec ’08 will probably be early, so I’m leaning towards early ’09. But even then I do not expect that to be the bottom by any means. At the same time, after a few years into marriage it’d be nice to settle in a nice home. Especially if kids come into the picture in the next couple of years. Even if there is still another 10-15% correction left to go at that point – again there is cost in waiting, renting, etc.

Not an easy decision, and it’s been racking my brain.

[sdnerd]

Thanks for the input.

I have a 5 year IO loan in the 4.x range – with a little over a year left before it adjusts, that’s why my current monthly is low.

I had considered dumping (should have last year). What’s always stopped me is if we move out and rent we are going to be spending ~20k/yr on rent. Effectively it’s depreciating at nearly the same amount my rent cost would be elsewhere.

I’m guessing I could dump the place today for $225-230k (maybe?). After fees, I’d basically walk away from the table not owing anything, but not leaving with anything either. Decent hit, but not too bad considering I’ve livered here ~4 years which helps ease the down payment loss pain.

If I live here another 2 years before buying (Dec ’09), that’s ~40k in rent. If 2 years turns to 3, that’s $60k… etc. If my bottom here is $180k, and I am going to live here at least another 1-2 years would it really make sense to bail now if I can only sell for $220k? Especially if I don’t need to sell to buy a new home. I can ride the market out on this 1 bedroom. (Part of the reason I bought a 1 bedroom to begin with)

There’s also a cost in moving out, then buying and having to move again should I buy a year or two later.

Also I agree that Dec ’08 will probably be early, so I’m leaning towards early ’09. But even then I do not expect that to be the bottom by any means. At the same time, after a few years into marriage it’d be nice to settle in a nice home. Especially if kids come into the picture in the next couple of years. Even if there is still another 10-15% correction left to go at that point – again there is cost in waiting, renting, etc.

Not an easy decision, and it’s been racking my brain.

[sdnerd]

Thanks for the input.

I have a 5 year IO loan in the 4.x range – with a little over a year left before it adjusts, that’s why my current monthly is low.

I had considered dumping (should have last year). What’s always stopped me is if we move out and rent we are going to be spending ~20k/yr on rent. Effectively it’s depreciating at nearly the same amount my rent cost would be elsewhere.

I’m guessing I could dump the place today for $225-230k (maybe?). After fees, I’d basically walk away from the table not owing anything, but not leaving with anything either. Decent hit, but not too bad considering I’ve livered here ~4 years which helps ease the down payment loss pain.

If I live here another 2 years before buying (Dec ’09), that’s ~40k in rent. If 2 years turns to 3, that’s $60k… etc. If my bottom here is $180k, and I am going to live here at least another 1-2 years would it really make sense to bail now if I can only sell for $220k? Especially if I don’t need to sell to buy a new home. I can ride the market out on this 1 bedroom. (Part of the reason I bought a 1 bedroom to begin with)

There’s also a cost in moving out, then buying and having to move again should I buy a year or two later.

Also I agree that Dec ’08 will probably be early, so I’m leaning towards early ’09. But even then I do not expect that to be the bottom by any means. At the same time, after a few years into marriage it’d be nice to settle in a nice home. Especially if kids come into the picture in the next couple of years. Even if there is still another 10-15% correction left to go at that point – again there is cost in waiting, renting, etc.

Not an easy decision, and it’s been racking my brain.

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