[sdappraiser]

There is a big difference between a professional or matter of fact analysis (which Rich does so well) and the ‘armchair’ analysis many on this forum attempt to perform. Just because information is in the public domain doesn’t mean it should be spread around for your amusement.

I met a girl once, we hit it off and she gave me her email address. I googled her address and found a posting she had recently made on an anonymous forum. She was looking for information on laser hair removal because she had severe and uncontrollable black nipple hair growth – it sounded pretty bad. Suffice to say, I could never look at her the same way again (not that there is anything wrong with nipple hair if any of you are also afflicted with this).

Should that information be spread around so people can learn from her experience? Powayseller, what is your email address or full name? I bet there is something out there you wouldn’t want spread around. Tell us about your biggest and most embarrassing mistakes in life so we can all learn.

Too many of you find great joy and satisfaction in other’s ill fortune. You attempt to come off like your just educating yourself and trying to teach others, but it’s obvious you are desperately trying to validate your own choices in life. It’s too bad you find so much amusement from other’s misfortune or bad timing. You just can’t wait to say “I told you so.” Hope it makes you feel better. I see the bad stuff every day, and let me tell you it’s a bummer. We are talking about people’s lives – and their kids. Maybe they all deserve it for being so greedy eh?

Please don’t take any of this as a personal attack, just my own armchair analysis. Like I said, at least I get paid to do this. Imagine the good that could be done if a few of you applied the same energy and focus into something more tangible than an internet forum.

JMHO

[sdappraiser]

“Check out 1**7 WHITE BIRCH DRIVE, Vista, CA 92081. The seller bought for $60,000 (that’s right no typo), about 5 years back.”

Wrong. It was a partial transfer between husband and wife. Not a purchase price.

“The seller seems to have squandered away his equity if you believe zillow (on Hummers?).”

Gotta love the arm chair analysis from experts with incomplete data. You should become an appraiser, at least then you could get paid for being so nosey.

[sdappraiser]

How is this ‘market manipulation’? What is being manipulated and what’s wrong with switching brokers if the job is not getting done or your listing agreement expires?

You obviously have incomplete information using zip realty. You are correct, this has been on and off the market several times over the last year and brokers have been switched. It was tenant occupied the first 7 months, which should also be taken into consideration. As far as the price is concerned, the seller may be delusinal but that is their right.

Any serious buyer would be working with a R/E professional who would give them the correct scoop on this. What gets manipulated?

[sdappraiser]

“Take the emotion out, people.” Direct quote from Powayseller.

I’ve followed your logic for awhile. You are very emotional about the path and decisions you’ve made. To the point where you spend hours on a blog trying to convince others that you’ve made the right decision for you and your family. From what I have read, it really appears that you are desperately seeking validation.

“Personally, this is probably the easiest money my husband and I ever made.”

Now you are an investment guru? It is one thing to discuss and debate new ideas, but now your starting threads titled “Advice to San Diego: Sell now and rent”

Seriously, take some of that easy money you made and spend some time with the family. Only time will tell if you have made the right decision.

What IS your motive?

[sdappraiser]

Bush, George W.

[sdappraiser]

Lostkitty,

Were you singing the same tune 2-3 years ago when values were increasing 2-3% per month, almost every month, in almost every area in San Diego?

Were those agents then low balling their listing clients by pricing and selling their homes well below what they knew they would sell for in just a few weeks time?

Its econ 101 people, supply and demand. Do you also blame those darn stock brokers, they keep pushing the market up. How can they sleep at night knowing the market might correct next week?

I’ve never actually seen an agent holding a gun to a buyer’s head. If its that common, I’m sure Rich has a chart somewhere.

[sdappraiser]

It is an interesting idea, but there are too many confidentiality issues involved. We can’t just release specific data like that for public consumption. I could go into great detail, but its not very interesting reading. Suffice to say, its not feasible in this form.

Just a side point, if your pool of appraisers willing to do this are the ‘out of work’ type, your results will most likely be suspect. Good appraisers are never out of work, there are usually good reasons why others are.

What would probably be more realistic and feasible would be an appraiser economic indictor. A formal survey given to a group of pre-screened appraisers (experience, education, license level, etc) that would somehow measure their perception as to what is happening in their market at or during a specific time. Similar to the consumer confidence index perhaps.

I’m not sure how useful it would be. Most of us would have been wrong for several years if asked to predict the top of this market. We are not fortune tellers and as sdrealtor pointed out, our opinions are only as good as the data we pour through and our ability to properly analyze it.

[sdappraiser]

Maybe red apples vs. green apples.

[sdappraiser]

An elevated 180 degree panoramic view makes a property superior and command a higher price. You were comparing two properties that were not as similar as they appeared.

Consider this, during periods of rapidly increasing prices and limited supply (like the last 3-5 years), issues like traffic noise and less than perfect location were not serious deal breakers to typical buyer. They just ‘wanted in’.

A couple years ago, it was not uncommon to see a condo that backed to a freeway sell for the same price, or more, than the last sale which was a similar unit in a location with no traffic noise. In many cases, paired sales analysis showed minimal price impact on properties with external obsolescence like traffic noise. Of course, there are always exceptions.

During periods of price declines and massive supply, the typical buyer has many more choices and the same property that backs to the freeway is going to have a much harder time competing with a similar property with no noise. Location premium spreads will increase and the properties with negative external influences will sell for significantly less as compared to similar properties with no negative influences.

Make sense?

[sdappraiser]

Here is a much better example in an adjacent neighborhood.

3xx2 Rancho Famosa
Last Sale 7/13/2005 $700,000 (off market date 6/6/05)

Currently listed for $699,000-739,000 (DOM 58).

If they receive an offer on the high end, they break even after commissions. Anything lower and they have a net loss. Fortunatley, the original purchase was not 100% financing.

This example (depending on final sales price) might leave one to believe price levels in this neighborhood have been fairly stable over the last 11 months.

[sdappraiser]

First issue, you can’t compare the two original purchase prices unless you know when each owner put down their original deposit/reservation. 3xx3 Paseo Estribo may have been resereved many months before the other property, therefore locking in a lower phase purchase price.

First phase releases have typically been priced lower to generate interest and to reflect the added risk of buying into an undeveloped project. You must also have data relating to original builder upgrades that may have been added into the purchase price. Even though they are model matches with similar upgrades today, one unit may have been sold with inferior upgrades 6 years ago and subsequently upgraded by the owner. Although rare in this day and age, some upgrades may have been paid with cash or outside of escrow and would not be reflected in the final sales price. In this case, I don’t believe you should place much weight, if any, on the original sales price comparison.

Second issue, 3xx3 Paseo Estribo has an overall superior panoramic view from the rear. Sometimes AVM programs like zillow.com do not factor in view or location premiums correctly. Public records do not typically list these characteristics which is what is usually fed into these AVMs.

Based on a brief glimps at both properties in MLS, the 3xx3 Paseo Estribo property looks to be superior and all things being equal should command a higher sales price. This is a clear case of apples to oranges and I don’t think this example shows ample evidence of a trend in sales prices.

[sdappraiser]

Off Topic. Bugs, are you a silver surfer? Your writing style seems familiar. Love your insight and contribution, as always.

[sdappraiser]

Bingo.

[sdappraiser]

Sandicor, the local MLS issued a warning to all local agents last week to ‘check’ their listings and change any pending sales that have closed to ‘closed’. There are typically a large number of pending sales that never register as closed either due to lazy agents or oversight. Sandicor tries to clean house every 6 months or so. The drop you saw last week may have been due to this.

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