[sdappraiser]

Per MLS, 43 detached SFRs in San Diego have closed escrow in the last 2 days.

Of the 43, 20 were listed with no value range. Of the 20, 13 sold BELOW the list price. 2 sold AT list price and 5 sold ABOVE list price. Of the 5 that sold above list price, it appears the sales price was probably increased so the buyer could wrap in closing costs into the purchase price (seller paid concession, thus final net sales price was either list or below list).

23 were listed with a value range and all but 4 of these sold for a value greater than the low end of the value range.

What does this mean? Value range pricing WORKS for the seller. Even in a buyer’s market with decreasing sales activity, sellers were able to get MORE than the low end of their list price in over 80% of this sample set.

How many of the 20 sellers who chose to not use variable price range left money on the table? Most of them is my guess.

Most of you are so biased in your opinions you refuse to open your eyes and TRY to understand how the business really works.

[sdappraiser]

BTW – the zoning for this particular property is RM-1-1 which allows 1 unit per 3,000 sq. ft. lot size. Cannot build a duplex without a zoning variance and with setbacks and parking restrictions I would doubt its possible in any case.

[sdappraiser]

sdrealtor, are you aware that the zoning designations in public records are incorrect. R3 is an outdated zoning designation. Lots of agents rely on public records for zoning and I’ve seen many listings that misrepresent the zoning (i.e. zoned R4 – can build additional units!)

Here is a link to the San Diego County official zoning site:

http://apps.sandiego.gov/siteinfoweb/begin.do

This link defines all zoning designations:

http://clerkdoc.sannet.gov/legtrain/mc/MuniCodeChapter13/Ch13Art01Division04

These links are valid for San Diego County only. All incorporated cities (Chula Vista, Lemon Grove, El Cajon etc) have different zoning designations – most cities have zoning maps or similar zoning queries on their local web page you just have to dig around for them.

[sdappraiser]

My guess is the developer reported gross building area which includes thickness of exterior wall areas and some interior open to below areas.

Someone took a look at the appraisal and saw it didn’t match because the appraiser is supposed to measure interior wall to wall floor space, excluding exterior walls and some stairwells. This can easily account for a 8-10% difference.

This is very common. I have, however, run into a couple projects where it appeared the developer also included patio or balcony space which is definatly misleading.

[sdappraiser]

Wait and see how well these buildings hold up during the next big earthquake. More importantly (maybe), how people’s desire to live on the 14th floor is affected.

[sdappraiser]

Selling is not ALWAYS the answer, though some here would like you to believe it is. Need more facts, but if she sells a 2M+ house she is going to get hammered with capital gains. She doesnt need to look at bubble primer graphs, she needs to talk to an estate planner and an accountant.

[sdappraiser]

When I run my CMAs, I put the MOST weight on active and pending listings. I try to price the listings based on how the competition is priced and how long they have been on market. In the end its all about the principle of substitution.

Even with years of experience as an appraiser, I’m not good enough to come up with a single point of value as a sales price (mortgage work is a different topic). Buyers are emotional and don’t always make logical decisions. As a broker, I believe single point values leave too much room for leaving money on the table.

Like you said, its all about educating and manageing the seller’s expectations. I won’t accept listings that are unreasonably priced and I won’t promise the moon if I can’t deliver. I think an appraisal class should be mandatory for all R/E agents.

[sdappraiser]

I’m an appraiser and broker. I get a few listings a year from clients who call for ‘pre-listing’ appraisals that I’m able to convert into actual listings.

Even in this soft market, I think there are some advantages to value ranges. Most agents I speak to are shooting for a mid value when using a range. When I use a range, I’m shooting for the low end. I’ll price the range with the bottem end being what my client indicates is their bottom line. If we get an offer somewhere in the middle, that’s a bonus. If we get an offer on the low end, which is what we want, the buyer feels like they got a deal because they ‘low balled’.

As an appraiser, I see comps all the time that were obviously mis-priced using a single value point. Sellers sometimes leave money on the table, even in a soft market. Many real estate agents simply don’t understand how to run an accurate CMA.

[sdappraiser]

Dont forget as a renter, you are still entitled to $10,000 Standard Deduction ($5,000 if your single). Many rent vs. buy calculations I’ve seem do not include the tax benefit that exists even if you don’t itemize.

You also need to factor in your opportunity cost. The $120k down payment could be earning around $5,400 @ 4.5% pre-tax every year (2 months of rent).

[sdappraiser]

All true. Many people are trying to refi, but they can’t with zero or negative equity.

“But my original loan officer PROMISED me I could refi in a year or two into a fixed loan”.

[sdappraiser]

I get the weekly NOD list from the local title company every Thursday. Number of local NODs range between 80-130 per week over the last few month, I’m not sure if the list I receive is exclusive though.

Countrywide was the lender on 20 of the 99 that came out this week. I’ve noticed this trend in the past, A LOT of Countrywide loans appear to go into default. I used to do some work for their local offices (retail) but was fired for not pushing values. It will catch up to them in the long run.

[sdappraiser]

A thought. If investors/flippers were credited with making 30% of the purchases over the last couple years wouldn’t it make sense that current sales numbers are down 30% YOY?

I know there are still flippers out there, I’m watching a few deals implode. But for the most part, maybe this decline in YOY sales is just the froth coming off the top.

I too believe that many listings will come off the market in the next few months as many sellers are just testing the market and trying to get unreasonable top dollar. I’ve made several informal calls to listing agents regarding high priced listings that have been stagnant, there is a lot of frustration out there. Lot of vacant houses though too.

[sdappraiser]

Poway Seller – June 23rd

“I am nosy, too. I checked the tax assessor site to find out how many late tax filers exist on my street, and I regularly check foreclosure.com for NOD and auctions on Poway homes. When I still had my Realtytrac.com membership, I snooped even more: I looked at the lien history of the NODs (foreclosure.com doesn’t provide it).”

“We should spread this out for everyone to see, so people can learn and not make the same mistakes. This should be used to help other people, not hidden from the world, Please, I beg you, spread the word on these people. Personal stories are so much more powerful than charts or surveys.”

[sdappraiser]

Zillow is useless as an analytical tool – kinda cool, but should not be considered accurate. It’s a computer driven algorithm that does not accurately quantify view, lot, location or condition amenities.

I’ve lost (paying jobs – sorry rankanfile – don’t vomit again) to AVMs similar to this. The lender preferred to save $300 on a $600,000 loan and rely on a computer model instead of having a pair of eyes and ears view the property to verify.

Their loss.

[sdappraiser]

Perhaps its the advertising revenue they are receiving that is driving the price changes.

You’ll never figure out how their AVM is calculating these changes when no new ‘real’ market data is available. But it appears they have found a way to bring you back and check every week.

At least I get paid for estimating values (just joking rankandfile, please don’t vomit).

Curious, has anyone clicked an advert?

[Author]

Posts