[sdappraiser]

Here is last weeks Property Ladder which was located in Chula Vista.

MLS #0680552110

Interesting thing about this is it was completed by more ‘professional’ types. According to the show the original purchase price was $455k, which I assume includes some financing costs as public records shows the price as $445k.

This was listed for 60 days, expired, refreshed for 54 days and finally went pending 2 weeks ago. The professional ‘realtor’ on the show recommended a price of 595k. Original list price was actually $649k. Current price shows $549,000-599,000.

One more interesting item, on the show they said they put about $50k into it. The first expired listing states over $80k of upgrades. The current listing states over $110k of upgrades. Hard to figure out the profit/loss on this without knowing the TRUE cost of upgrades and whether or not they are padding this figure to make it look more exceptional.

Will be interesting to see what this actually sells for. My calculations with 6 months of holding costs indicate $8,500 profit with 50k upgrades and 550k selling price.

[sdappraiser]

I agree, going forward they will have serious issues to deal with. I am one of those who will no longer be doing work for WAMU as I refuse to deal with the likes of LSI. I’d rather take the day off than work for sub-standard fees and deal with the phone monkeys.

In my previous post I was speaking directly towards their current loan portfolio which I believe is probably very solid. If standards and quality go down the drain like most believe, I think it will take at least a year or two for that to be reflected as an increase in defaults.

I still don’t think this is a good time to short WM. Countrywide and Wells have been cutting corners on collateral evaluations for years and it shows in the REO and NOD lists.

[sdappraiser]

From my experience, WAMU has been the most vigilant client I’ve had over the last several years as far as qualifying their clients. In addition, very strict appraisal guidelines with an internal appraisal staff department and very selective contract fee appraiser list.

I’m sure there are bad loans on the books, possibly from the many bank purchases they have made, but their main wholesale and retail division, which probably accounts for the majority of their volumn (anyone care to verify this), is probably the most sound loan portfolio in the industry.

From the thousands of REO and NOD properties I’ve noted in the last year, I only recall several from WAMU or Long Beach.

Powayseller, what makes you so sure this is a good short? With a 5% yield I would be consider buying this now.

You DO know that if you short this, you are on the hook and have to pay the person you borrowed the shares from the $2.08/share dividend right?

[sdappraiser]

Whats that smell? Cooked books. Good luck shorting with that possibility hanging over all these companies. Freddie and Fannie did it, you think they are the only ones padding the books to keep the bonuses flowing? Sure, it may come to light eventually, hopefully before you get the margin call or are forced to cover.

[sdappraiser]

There is an agent in Pacific Beach that occasionally places little 12 inch American flags in the grass in front of every house (city property) for blocks. Hundreds of these line the streets, each have her business card taped to the stick.

Looks cool for the first hour until the wind blows them down, people kick them over and dogs have their way with them. The next day it looks like crap and the streets are littered for days. I hope she gets fined big time.

Perry, every city has their own sign ordinances which are easy to find on SDAR’s webpage. It is the real estate agent’s fault for not following the rules.

[sdappraiser]

I believe a straw poll of the form participants would also overwhelmingly indicate most think you are a pompous individual. Does that make it so?

[sdappraiser]

There are 211 pending sales in 92027, 92028 and 92026 right now. Are they all overpriced as well?

I fail to see how a realtor complaining about sign restrictions equates to the house being overpriced.

[sdappraiser]

How do you know the home is overpriced? Where is the data to backup your analysis?

[sdappraiser]

Not statistically significant, but here are my observations for August.

Random sample of several populated zip codes show a 25-50% YOY decline in closed sales for August. Not many pendings in the pipeline, Sept. figures will reflect this.

Certain sub-market areas may have had 40+/- closed sales in the last 12 months, but currently have 40-60 active listings and only several pending sales (inventory glut).

I’ve completed two purchase appraisals this week. Both properties were priced 10-15% below the last model match comparable to induce quick sale. In both cases, they were the ONLY pendings in the entire sub-market.

The buyer/seller stand off is resolving itself. A few sellers have blinked and values (based on Aug/Sept sales) may end up showing a 10-15% decline YOY. No soft landing in my opinion. Though I do believe we will see a big decline towards the end of this year then moderate declines over the next several.

[sdappraiser]

Are you starting a web blog? I registered a few domain names earlier this year in hopes of selling them off in the future. If you are thinking about starting a R/E webpage, these might interest you. Some of them look like doubles but they are variations in spelling that would be sold together.

homesindefault.com
homeindefault.com
thinkingaboutforeclosure.com
thinkingaboutforclosure.com
throwthekeysin.com
throwinthekeys.com
putsomelipstickonthispig.com
sd-foreclosures.com
sd-forclosures.com
buyashortsalehome.com
sandiegoforeclosurespecialist.com
sandiegoforclosurespecialist.com
sdforeclosurespecialist.com
sdforclosurespecialist.com
sandiegohomesindefault.com
sdhomesindefault.com
sandiegoforeclosureinfo.com
sandiegoforclosureinfo.com
sdforeclosureinfo.com
sdforclosureinfo.com
sandiegoreolist.com
sdreolist.com
sandiegobubbleburst.com
sdbubbleburst.com
thebubbleisbursting.com
victimofpredatorylending.com
homeloanfraud.com

Hope Rich doesn’t mind the plug. If so I will delete.

[sdappraiser]

If you would have purchased a 12 month CD 1 year ago vs. floating in a variable rate account (compounding w/ money market fund), you would have lost yield.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/graphs/graph_trend.asp?tf=360&ct=Line&prods=50&gs=400,220&st=CA&c3d=False&web=brm&cc=1&prodtype=D

If you are convinced rates will continue to rise or remain stable, why would you lock your rate? – Especially with an inverted yield curve.

[sdappraiser]

Collecting Sunday papers for 3 years sounds like a fun hobby and a great way to spend the weekend.

I’ve missed a lot of your previous posts, so I forget why you are so wound up and bitter. Please feel free to remind me why you have such a vested interest in this if you like.

BTW – FBI is not coming fast enough. The state licensing board virtually ignores any complaints that have been filed. Everyone including the bank QC departments have turned a blind eye in the past, even when notified that a loan has funded due to potential fraud. The damage is already done.

I’ve done what I can to clean up my profession and I play by the rules. Don’t hate the player.

[sdappraiser]

Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.

[sdappraiser]

powayseller,

The only way to verify sales concessions is to call the listing agent and ask them to disclose it. Unfortunatly, it is not required that the agent disclose this in MLS (it really should be).

It’s easy to spot them with a single listing price as the sales price will typically be exactly $5k or $10k over list. With market times of 45-90 days its unlikely anyone put a true offer in over list.

With the variable range, there is no way to tell w/o calling. I have no doubt many of the sales in the variable range sample had concessions as well, but the majority had final sales prices significantly higher than the low end price (more than 5-10k).

Why would someone offer a price higher than the low end? Maybe they didn’t, got countered, let emotion take over and accepted the higher counter offer.

In any case, variable range listing is a good way to maximize the final sales price and it appears to still be working for many sellers even in this softer market.

[sdappraiser]

Asianautica, that scenario just doesn’t exist as no 2 properties are EXACTLY alike.

I posted because previous posters have implied the range value is a bogus sales tool and buyers should automatically discount the low end of the range when making an offer. Statistics show that this is not happening in the market place and in most instances units are selling at a higher price than the low end of the range.

Powayseller’s is the only case I’ve heard of where a seller has admited to using a listing range that included a value lower than what they actually wanted. I would say most typically motivated sellers will use a low end price, that at that point in time, is the absolute lowest they would consider.

From the 1000’s of transactions I analyze ever week, I can tell you that the majority of ‘low sales’ that stick out like a sore thumb are usually single price point listings. These are sales that show no other indication of being distressed. Many real estate agents just don’t know how to price a property.

This has been covered before:

http://piggington.com/the_dreaded_value_price_range

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