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AuthorPosts
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SD Realtor
ParticipantIlovecv –
Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.
If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.
In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.
Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.
*******
As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.
Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median
92130
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670ParticipantIlovecv –
Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.
If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.
In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.
Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.
*******
As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.
Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median
92130
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670ParticipantHere you go E
91913
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 259,440
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 22 sales, median price 319,131
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 26 sales, median price 397,519
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 38 sales, median price 468,982
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 37 sales, median price 642,784
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 20 sales, median price 703,650
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 15 sales, median price 655,302
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 20 sales, median price 489,17591915
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 271,190
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 16 sales, median price 312,268
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 14 sales, median price 421,385
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 15 sales, median price 546,240
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 24 sales, median price 630,657
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 19 sales, median price 673,894
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 13 sales, median price 640,060
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 16 sales, median price 511,46891915
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 12 sales, median price 289,416
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 21 sales, median price 320,200
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 17 sales, median price 418,691
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 26 sales, median price 496,542
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 20 sales, median price 603,150
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 18 sales, median price 706,166
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 11 sales, median price 658,138
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 14 sales, median price 441,842corrected
ParticipantHere you go E
91913
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 259,440
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 22 sales, median price 319,131
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 26 sales, median price 397,519
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 38 sales, median price 468,982
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 37 sales, median price 642,784
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 20 sales, median price 703,650
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 15 sales, median price 655,302
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 20 sales, median price 489,17591915
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 271,190
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 16 sales, median price 312,268
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 14 sales, median price 421,385
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 15 sales, median price 546,240
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 24 sales, median price 630,657
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 19 sales, median price 673,894
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 13 sales, median price 640,060
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 16 sales, median price 511,46891915
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 12 sales, median price 289,416
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 21 sales, median price 320,200
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 17 sales, median price 418,691
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 26 sales, median price 496,542
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 20 sales, median price 603,150
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 18 sales, median price 706,166
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 11 sales, median price 658,138
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 14 sales, median price 441,842corrected
ParticipantHere you go E
91913
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 259,440
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 22 sales, median price 319,131
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 26 sales, median price 397,519
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 38 sales, median price 468,982
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 37 sales, median price 642,784
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 20 sales, median price 703,650
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 15 sales, median price 655,302
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 20 sales, median price 489,17591915
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 271,190
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 16 sales, median price 312,268
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 14 sales, median price 421,385
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 15 sales, median price 546,240
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 24 sales, median price 630,657
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 19 sales, median price 673,894
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 13 sales, median price 640,060
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 16 sales, median price 511,46891915
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 12 sales, median price 289,416
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 21 sales, median price 320,200
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 17 sales, median price 418,691
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 26 sales, median price 496,542
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 20 sales, median price 603,150
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 18 sales, median price 706,166
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 11 sales, median price 658,138
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 14 sales, median price 441,842corrected
ParticipantHere you go E
91913
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 259,440
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 22 sales, median price 319,131
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 26 sales, median price 397,519
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 38 sales, median price 468,982
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 37 sales, median price 642,784
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 20 sales, median price 703,650
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 15 sales, median price 655,302
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 20 sales, median price 489,17591915
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 271,190
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 16 sales, median price 312,268
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 14 sales, median price 421,385
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 15 sales, median price 546,240
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 24 sales, median price 630,657
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 19 sales, median price 673,894
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 13 sales, median price 640,060
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 16 sales, median price 511,46891915
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 12 sales, median price 289,416
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 21 sales, median price 320,200
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 17 sales, median price 418,691
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 26 sales, median price 496,542
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 20 sales, median price 603,150
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 18 sales, median price 706,166
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 11 sales, median price 658,138
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 14 sales, median price 441,842corrected
ParticipantHere you go E
91913
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 259,440
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 22 sales, median price 319,131
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 26 sales, median price 397,519
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 38 sales, median price 468,982
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 37 sales, median price 642,784
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 20 sales, median price 703,650
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 15 sales, median price 655,302
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 20 sales, median price 489,17591915
1/1/01 – 2/1/01 10 sales, median price 271,190
1/1/02 – 2/1/02 16 sales, median price 312,268
1/1/03 – 2/1/03 14 sales, median price 421,385
1/1/04 – 2/1/04 15 sales, median price 546,240
1/1/05 – 2/1/05 24 sales, median price 630,657
1/1/06 – 2/1/06 19 sales, median price 673,894
1/1/07 – 2/1/07 13 sales, median price 640,060
1/1/08 – 2/1/08 16 sales, median price 511,46891915
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 12 sales, median price 289,416
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 21 sales, median price 320,200
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 17 sales, median price 418,691
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 26 sales, median price 496,542
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 20 sales, median price 603,150
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 18 sales, median price 706,166
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 11 sales, median price 658,138
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 14 sales, median price 441,842corrected
ParticipantYeah I was gonna recommend the Solana Beach station… I kind of figured that commute would add up.. You pretty much summed it up well.
Lets talk about using the home as a rental. Not a bad idea at all if you make a few assumptions. First off, if you turn the home into a rental, I would make the assumption that you will indeed be keeping the home for a long time. I honestly don’t believe, (and this is ONLY AN OPINION, very speculative and not backed by any facts) that the market in CV will NOT be higher in 5 years from now as it is today. So that would presume that you would rent the home and it would continue to be a rental for you 5 years from now.
Also if you do rent the home out, you may want to use a property manager that gives you some options. Some PMs have a full service approach where they find a tenant from you, then they also maintain the home for you as well by taking a cut of the rent. Some of them have options where they just find a qualified tenant for you and put them under contract. Then you take over from there. You only get charged once which is nice. Depending on the quality of the tenant and the condition of your home, you may not need to give up so much of the rent to your PM. It is your call to make. Personally I don’t need or use a PM with my properties but that is me. Again, you need to measure your own capability.
As far as the tax liability goes, yeah I know that pain. Having rented the past few years I get killed on taxes and I hate it. However I think by only looking at taxes you may be missing out on the big picture. If you are going to do a correct calculation, you need to figure out how much you would be saving if you did sell your home. So no more property tax, no more HOA/MR fees, and you whatever cash you get back, you would be making a return (albeit a low one) on the money from the sale. Meanwhile, your cash is gaining interest, and it while it may be losing ground due to inflation, it will be gaining ground on housing. That is housing depreciation will be occurring faster then inflation, (hopefully). Otherwise those of us who are sitting on cash are indeed fools.
So the point is that in order for you to make a “fair” assessment of the sell now or not sell now decision, you need to run some numbers INCLUDING some possible future tax returns.
********
So here is a question… let’s say you kept this home as a rental and moved up there. Then let’s say you started to just stock up on cash. Save save save and keep saving. In a couple of years do you think you could afford to buy up there without selling your home?
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah I was gonna recommend the Solana Beach station… I kind of figured that commute would add up.. You pretty much summed it up well.
Lets talk about using the home as a rental. Not a bad idea at all if you make a few assumptions. First off, if you turn the home into a rental, I would make the assumption that you will indeed be keeping the home for a long time. I honestly don’t believe, (and this is ONLY AN OPINION, very speculative and not backed by any facts) that the market in CV will NOT be higher in 5 years from now as it is today. So that would presume that you would rent the home and it would continue to be a rental for you 5 years from now.
Also if you do rent the home out, you may want to use a property manager that gives you some options. Some PMs have a full service approach where they find a tenant from you, then they also maintain the home for you as well by taking a cut of the rent. Some of them have options where they just find a qualified tenant for you and put them under contract. Then you take over from there. You only get charged once which is nice. Depending on the quality of the tenant and the condition of your home, you may not need to give up so much of the rent to your PM. It is your call to make. Personally I don’t need or use a PM with my properties but that is me. Again, you need to measure your own capability.
As far as the tax liability goes, yeah I know that pain. Having rented the past few years I get killed on taxes and I hate it. However I think by only looking at taxes you may be missing out on the big picture. If you are going to do a correct calculation, you need to figure out how much you would be saving if you did sell your home. So no more property tax, no more HOA/MR fees, and you whatever cash you get back, you would be making a return (albeit a low one) on the money from the sale. Meanwhile, your cash is gaining interest, and it while it may be losing ground due to inflation, it will be gaining ground on housing. That is housing depreciation will be occurring faster then inflation, (hopefully). Otherwise those of us who are sitting on cash are indeed fools.
So the point is that in order for you to make a “fair” assessment of the sell now or not sell now decision, you need to run some numbers INCLUDING some possible future tax returns.
********
So here is a question… let’s say you kept this home as a rental and moved up there. Then let’s say you started to just stock up on cash. Save save save and keep saving. In a couple of years do you think you could afford to buy up there without selling your home?
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah I was gonna recommend the Solana Beach station… I kind of figured that commute would add up.. You pretty much summed it up well.
Lets talk about using the home as a rental. Not a bad idea at all if you make a few assumptions. First off, if you turn the home into a rental, I would make the assumption that you will indeed be keeping the home for a long time. I honestly don’t believe, (and this is ONLY AN OPINION, very speculative and not backed by any facts) that the market in CV will NOT be higher in 5 years from now as it is today. So that would presume that you would rent the home and it would continue to be a rental for you 5 years from now.
Also if you do rent the home out, you may want to use a property manager that gives you some options. Some PMs have a full service approach where they find a tenant from you, then they also maintain the home for you as well by taking a cut of the rent. Some of them have options where they just find a qualified tenant for you and put them under contract. Then you take over from there. You only get charged once which is nice. Depending on the quality of the tenant and the condition of your home, you may not need to give up so much of the rent to your PM. It is your call to make. Personally I don’t need or use a PM with my properties but that is me. Again, you need to measure your own capability.
As far as the tax liability goes, yeah I know that pain. Having rented the past few years I get killed on taxes and I hate it. However I think by only looking at taxes you may be missing out on the big picture. If you are going to do a correct calculation, you need to figure out how much you would be saving if you did sell your home. So no more property tax, no more HOA/MR fees, and you whatever cash you get back, you would be making a return (albeit a low one) on the money from the sale. Meanwhile, your cash is gaining interest, and it while it may be losing ground due to inflation, it will be gaining ground on housing. That is housing depreciation will be occurring faster then inflation, (hopefully). Otherwise those of us who are sitting on cash are indeed fools.
So the point is that in order for you to make a “fair” assessment of the sell now or not sell now decision, you need to run some numbers INCLUDING some possible future tax returns.
********
So here is a question… let’s say you kept this home as a rental and moved up there. Then let’s say you started to just stock up on cash. Save save save and keep saving. In a couple of years do you think you could afford to buy up there without selling your home?
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah I was gonna recommend the Solana Beach station… I kind of figured that commute would add up.. You pretty much summed it up well.
Lets talk about using the home as a rental. Not a bad idea at all if you make a few assumptions. First off, if you turn the home into a rental, I would make the assumption that you will indeed be keeping the home for a long time. I honestly don’t believe, (and this is ONLY AN OPINION, very speculative and not backed by any facts) that the market in CV will NOT be higher in 5 years from now as it is today. So that would presume that you would rent the home and it would continue to be a rental for you 5 years from now.
Also if you do rent the home out, you may want to use a property manager that gives you some options. Some PMs have a full service approach where they find a tenant from you, then they also maintain the home for you as well by taking a cut of the rent. Some of them have options where they just find a qualified tenant for you and put them under contract. Then you take over from there. You only get charged once which is nice. Depending on the quality of the tenant and the condition of your home, you may not need to give up so much of the rent to your PM. It is your call to make. Personally I don’t need or use a PM with my properties but that is me. Again, you need to measure your own capability.
As far as the tax liability goes, yeah I know that pain. Having rented the past few years I get killed on taxes and I hate it. However I think by only looking at taxes you may be missing out on the big picture. If you are going to do a correct calculation, you need to figure out how much you would be saving if you did sell your home. So no more property tax, no more HOA/MR fees, and you whatever cash you get back, you would be making a return (albeit a low one) on the money from the sale. Meanwhile, your cash is gaining interest, and it while it may be losing ground due to inflation, it will be gaining ground on housing. That is housing depreciation will be occurring faster then inflation, (hopefully). Otherwise those of us who are sitting on cash are indeed fools.
So the point is that in order for you to make a “fair” assessment of the sell now or not sell now decision, you need to run some numbers INCLUDING some possible future tax returns.
********
So here is a question… let’s say you kept this home as a rental and moved up there. Then let’s say you started to just stock up on cash. Save save save and keep saving. In a couple of years do you think you could afford to buy up there without selling your home?
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah I was gonna recommend the Solana Beach station… I kind of figured that commute would add up.. You pretty much summed it up well.
Lets talk about using the home as a rental. Not a bad idea at all if you make a few assumptions. First off, if you turn the home into a rental, I would make the assumption that you will indeed be keeping the home for a long time. I honestly don’t believe, (and this is ONLY AN OPINION, very speculative and not backed by any facts) that the market in CV will NOT be higher in 5 years from now as it is today. So that would presume that you would rent the home and it would continue to be a rental for you 5 years from now.
Also if you do rent the home out, you may want to use a property manager that gives you some options. Some PMs have a full service approach where they find a tenant from you, then they also maintain the home for you as well by taking a cut of the rent. Some of them have options where they just find a qualified tenant for you and put them under contract. Then you take over from there. You only get charged once which is nice. Depending on the quality of the tenant and the condition of your home, you may not need to give up so much of the rent to your PM. It is your call to make. Personally I don’t need or use a PM with my properties but that is me. Again, you need to measure your own capability.
As far as the tax liability goes, yeah I know that pain. Having rented the past few years I get killed on taxes and I hate it. However I think by only looking at taxes you may be missing out on the big picture. If you are going to do a correct calculation, you need to figure out how much you would be saving if you did sell your home. So no more property tax, no more HOA/MR fees, and you whatever cash you get back, you would be making a return (albeit a low one) on the money from the sale. Meanwhile, your cash is gaining interest, and it while it may be losing ground due to inflation, it will be gaining ground on housing. That is housing depreciation will be occurring faster then inflation, (hopefully). Otherwise those of us who are sitting on cash are indeed fools.
So the point is that in order for you to make a “fair” assessment of the sell now or not sell now decision, you need to run some numbers INCLUDING some possible future tax returns.
********
So here is a question… let’s say you kept this home as a rental and moved up there. Then let’s say you started to just stock up on cash. Save save save and keep saving. In a couple of years do you think you could afford to buy up there without selling your home?
SD Realtor
ParticipantYep… I am digging up some research for Coronado for someone but I will after that. If you like I can do Feb and March because March is an important number but I don’t have March 08 so I should not ask dumb questions… I purposely stayed off of 91915 because it built out later then 91913. Lots of new building still went on in 91915 but I will gather then numbers nonetheless.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYep… I am digging up some research for Coronado for someone but I will after that. If you like I can do Feb and March because March is an important number but I don’t have March 08 so I should not ask dumb questions… I purposely stayed off of 91915 because it built out later then 91913. Lots of new building still went on in 91915 but I will gather then numbers nonetheless.
SD Realtor
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