Saturday Night Stats

[SD Realtor]

Here are some very interesting stats for the crew here.

I limited this search to using the MLS and ONLY looking at detached homes. I don’t care about median pricing but to me volume never lies and I think it is the most telling stat of all. Personally I will consider volume or the change in volume as an important factor in determining the bottom of the market. So the first sample of data is the month of February, both volume and average for the past several years. Again, detached homes only using the alsdc string as the search for the MLS. Now February is not a good month to use because solds in February represent escrows that started in January or before. Pretty much closings in February represent winter sales. Still though yoy data does not lie. Also I used median price but it is average not median…

County stats..

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 1487 sales, median price 351,888
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 1970 sales, median price 403,811
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 1650 sales, median price 467,189
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 1781 sales, median price 567,785
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 1593 sales, median price 661,379
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 1322 sales, median price 703,317
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 1223 sales, median price 688,797
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 886 sales, median price 591,218

******

So then I decided to do the same thing for an established zip code. I chose Encinitas

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 37 sales, median price 603,906
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 40 sales, median price 607,744
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 32 sales, median price 618,480
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 42 sales, median price 788,092
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 32 sales, median price 970,516
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 34 sales, median price 1,074,769
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 27 sales, median price 1,074,425
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 20 sales, median price 1,224,292

Then I took Scripps

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 28 sales, median price 470,566
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 42 sales, median price 457,030
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 32 sales, median price 534,232
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 16 sales, median price 732,062
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 29 sales, median price 768,102
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 18 sales, median price 830,661
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 22 sales, median price 768,453
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 12 sales, median price 765,116

Then I took San Carlos 92119
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 16 sales, median price 285,212
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 16 sales, median price 315,999
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 14 sales, median price 411,714
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 19 sales, median price 509,065
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 14 sales, median price 515,392
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 9 sales, median price 608,666
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 14 sales, median price 486,071
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 7 sales, median price 449,142

Then I took Pt Loma 92106
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 16 sales, median price 595,583
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 17 sales, median price 594,252
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 9 sales, median price 681,494
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 10 sales, median price 922,350
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 17 sales, median price 1,081,097
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 9 sales, median price 1,145,888
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 8 sales, median price 939,375
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 5 sales, median price 791,600

Last but not least 91913 Eastlake
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 13 sales, median price 290,684
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 19 sales, median price 333,641
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 23 sales, median price 404,186
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 39 sales, median price 519,235
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 27 sales, median price 651,232
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 19 sales, median price 697,078
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 15 sales, median price 607,487
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 22 sales, median price 457,877

************

[an]

SD R, I agree that sales is a better indicator of a bottom than price. Seems like volume/sales are falling through the floor. Prices may not reflect the sales # yet, but I suspect these sales # will force the must sell people (bank/builders/short sales) to play a little harder.

[an]

SD R, I agree that sales is a better indicator of a bottom than price. Seems like volume/sales are falling through the floor. Prices may not reflect the sales # yet, but I suspect these sales # will force the must sell people (bank/builders/short sales) to play a little harder.

[an]

SD R, I agree that sales is a better indicator of a bottom than price. Seems like volume/sales are falling through the floor. Prices may not reflect the sales # yet, but I suspect these sales # will force the must sell people (bank/builders/short sales) to play a little harder.

[an]

SD R, I agree that sales is a better indicator of a bottom than price. Seems like volume/sales are falling through the floor. Prices may not reflect the sales # yet, but I suspect these sales # will force the must sell people (bank/builders/short sales) to play a little harder.

[an]

SD R, I agree that sales is a better indicator of a bottom than price. Seems like volume/sales are falling through the floor. Prices may not reflect the sales # yet, but I suspect these sales # will force the must sell people (bank/builders/short sales) to play a little harder.

[gdcox]

SD Realtor.
Sympathetic with your viewpoint, but only so far as sales are a pre-requisite to recovery in today’s extraordinary situation.

Is not the situation plausible where deep price cuts finally persuade buyers to emerge and sales rise (stage 1). Maybe the rate of price declines slows a bit but prices could still go down futher but then recover if sales stay at higher levels.

The Eastlake figure may indicate the first stage?

[gdcox]

SD Realtor.
Sympathetic with your viewpoint, but only so far as sales are a pre-requisite to recovery in today’s extraordinary situation.

Is not the situation plausible where deep price cuts finally persuade buyers to emerge and sales rise (stage 1). Maybe the rate of price declines slows a bit but prices could still go down futher but then recover if sales stay at higher levels.

The Eastlake figure may indicate the first stage?

[gdcox]

SD Realtor.
Sympathetic with your viewpoint, but only so far as sales are a pre-requisite to recovery in today’s extraordinary situation.

Is not the situation plausible where deep price cuts finally persuade buyers to emerge and sales rise (stage 1). Maybe the rate of price declines slows a bit but prices could still go down futher but then recover if sales stay at higher levels.

The Eastlake figure may indicate the first stage?

[gdcox]

SD Realtor.
Sympathetic with your viewpoint, but only so far as sales are a pre-requisite to recovery in today’s extraordinary situation.

Is not the situation plausible where deep price cuts finally persuade buyers to emerge and sales rise (stage 1). Maybe the rate of price declines slows a bit but prices could still go down futher but then recover if sales stay at higher levels.

The Eastlake figure may indicate the first stage?

[gdcox]

SD Realtor.
Sympathetic with your viewpoint, but only so far as sales are a pre-requisite to recovery in today’s extraordinary situation.

Is not the situation plausible where deep price cuts finally persuade buyers to emerge and sales rise (stage 1). Maybe the rate of price declines slows a bit but prices could still go down futher but then recover if sales stay at higher levels.

The Eastlake figure may indicate the first stage?

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

very interesting information – wish I could see Valley Center, 92082 🙂

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

very interesting information – wish I could see Valley Center, 92082 🙂

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

very interesting information – wish I could see Valley Center, 92082 🙂

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

very interesting information – wish I could see Valley Center, 92082 🙂

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