Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
SD Realtor
ParticipantPerry –
I am not sure about the job base down there but I can DEFINITELY tell you that Otay Ranch resales are getting hammered. As I posted just the other day only 3 count them 3 closed escrows since 11/1/06. Looks like we will have more though as there are several pendings.
Also doing a search on the MLS for short, bank, or foreclose and I think you will see that 91914 is amongst the leaders of hits on this type of search..
SD Realtor
December 18, 2006 at 10:03 PM in reply to: Temecula/Murrieta – how bad of a drop is coming??? #42041ParticipantDefinitely sit tight 23109VC. I think the contraction will happen faster and harder in the outlying areas such as Temecula. I would venture to say that a year from now you will see homes in the 400k range with some desperation sales in the high 300’s.
SD Realtor
December 18, 2006 at 9:59 PM in reply to: 3567 Calle Palmito & 3571 Calle Palmito, La Costa Oaks 92009 #42040ParticipantHi Farbet –
No they are not bank owned. Here is the history.
3567 Calle Palmito – Sold 9/22/05, 1.435M
Now here is where the fun begins:
Active for sale on 12/8/06 at 1.875M
Cancelled on 2/21/06 at 1.799 – 1.875M
Active for sale on 2/22/06 for 1.795M
Cancelled on 7/7/06 at 1.65M
Active for sale on 7/11/06 at 1.65M
Current price is 1.45M3571 Calle Palmito – Sold 9/15/05, 1.34M
Active for sale on 11/21/05 at 1.55M
Cancelled on 1/22/06 at 1.409 – 1.449M
Active for sale on 12/1/06 at 1.2M – 1.4MCan you hear the sellers gasping for air?
Participantjg – This is precisely my point, (and to some degree Powaysellers and others point)… In my example there were only 3 sales and then almost 60 homes that came off the market.
So then how DOES the seller price his home correctly? You and Steve Beebo seem to maintain your stance on the median home sale price stats. So if a seller were to rely on that statistic then the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of the fact that that seller would end up NOT selling his home because he did not price correctly.
Even you have stated that the median price indicator is a lagging stat.
So while everyone on the post likes to bag on realtors and sellers about not pricing correctly, it would be a heck of alot easier if there was a MUCH MORE accurate or timely indicator of market performance.
How it is not obvious to people that market conditions are far from accurately portraying the conditions and sentiment continues to amaze me. So time after time I sit there and have to show frustrated sellers the real conditions as opposed to what they read in the monthly fishwrap about the precious median. Then when I show them the expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns they ask me, “why isn’t that reported?”
It frustrates me enough when sellers say things like that because in most cases they are simply not to bright. However to hear people on this site arguing that the median price indicator is an accurate gauge of the market is incredibly frustrating.
I only wish you guys could chat with sellers…
ParticipantYeah Sundance was definitely a family deal. Sales history is as follows:
Date Seller Buyer
12/21/01 Standard Pacific Chula Vista Medical Ents
3/1/05 Chula Vista MedicalEnts Kuta Family Trust
5/25/06 Kuta Family Trust Adrian JafferNote that the only market sale was the one in 2001. The other transfers were quit claim deeds.
Similar thing with Archer. The same entities are involved, Standard Pacific, Chula Vista Medical Ents and of course the Kuta Family Trust.
ParticipantSteve – This is SD Realtor, as opposed to sdrealtor who responded to your post earlier.
So okay here are some statistics I would like you to look up.
Also lets take a look at 91914. Since 11/1/06 there have been 3 solds. Okay those will be used to generate the new median. Yet since that same time over 50 properties are either expired, cancelled or withdrawn.
So how does the median accurately portray that market? How does it even come close?
SD Realtor
ParticipantI want to say that we looked into a similar program for my mother in law and there were some very big concerns we had about exiting as well. Also about how the property gets passed on in the event that the owner passes away.
Personally I do not think 380 a month is a good deal for HOA fees. Especially in North Park.
If you are getting a first and a second it sounds as if you are really pushing yourself financing wise. 5.75% on your first is not exceptional right now. However the 3% second is great. Have you looked into a CALHFA loan. There are some great deals for first timers out there.
My concern is that you guys sound like first time buyers. This home will not be your last home. So if you are going to be a first time buyer make sure that your exit strategy is not hindered. Also I think the program you are in prohibits you from using the property as a rental as well…
Seriously, if there is one segment of the market that has taken a beating and is continuing to get hammered, it is the condo market. I think with a little patience you guys can do really well in the next year or so…
SD Realtor
ParticipantBikeRider I really agree with your post. I think we have all seen that the builders were the most nimble over the past decline this year. They slashed prices radically and offered incentives that prudent buyers, and the astute first time buyers took advantage of. I somewhat less, agree with your points about sellers. I only say this because I have a few of them who are NOT trapped by a lack of equity and they are simply not budging for whatever reason…I do agree with you that there are many sellers who have become financially trapped…however many have not…
ParticipantBikeRider I really agree with your post. I think we have all seen that the builders were the most nimble over the past decline this year. They slashed prices radically and offered incentives that prudent buyers, and the astute first time buyers took advantage of. I somewhat less, agree with your points about sellers. I only say this because I have a few of them who are NOT trapped by a lack of equity and they are simply not budging for whatever reason…I do agree with you that there are many sellers who have become financially trapped…however many have not…
ParticipantPS –
Yeah I remember emailing you about this couple as well. Pretty ironic. Hard to answer alot of your questions…. Plus I am kind of sleepy so I don’t have much energy to write…I think that people who believe real estate will go up in the long run are CORRECT. However they should be prepared that the long run may be a VERY long run. I think it is nearly impossible to pick out a residential property that didn’t appreciate in the long run. It is the hold and hope strategy… (anyone listen to Mo Ansari?)
However those that make money in real estate investments do it in a more prudent manner. They are nimble and they identify emerging markets as well as divest out of deteriorating markets or markets that are peaking…
Anyways surveyor and Counselor may very well do okay in the long run..
You already know my strategy though… renting until I feel the market has become more stable.
December 15, 2006 at 11:34 PM in reply to: La Costa Oaks Starboard writes out buyers agent on 3% commission #41858ParticipantHang in there D & O…I think I have been treated worse (as a realtor) by those closer to me then by total strangers.
I am at the point now where I don’t really even talk about real estate with friends anymore.
ParticipantSo nsr the optimal way to handle it is to sell today and wait to buy. It would not be fair to doc the seller the cost of renting the home he would live in for a few years as long as his rent was not appreciably larger then his current mortgage.
I also service mainly sellers but also a few buyers as well. I always tell them my opinion with how I feel the market will perform in both the short term and the long run. I work for them and they benefit from my experience and expertise. If they still want a home to live in or rent out after I give them my opinions then it is my duty to find them a home. As much as I try to make sure they can afford the home, that they have a good mortgage that will not drown them in the future, it is ultimately thier own choice.
I had some clients just this spring/summer who wanted to buy in Eastlake. We looked at places for months and months and I tried to tone down thier tastes to a more affordable level then what they wanted. I knew thier income and I knew what they could afford… We lowballed people on 4 different offers over 8 weeks. I went to thier credit union with them, recommended a host of different mortgage brokers… on and on and on… So I don’t hear from them for a week after talking with them almost daily for like 2 months…. Turns out they scorched me and went to an open house and worked directly with the listing agent….They bought a home at full price after it was on the market for only a few days!!! Hey getting scorched is part of my job right? The point is that I was looking out for thier best interest even to the point of possibly being to much of a financial nag to them… So they call me last week saying they need to sell cuz they are to stressed out on thier payments…
What can you do…
December 14, 2006 at 6:11 PM in reply to: La Costa Oaks Starboard writes out buyers agent on 3% commission #41745ParticipantPowayseller you can on fast!!!
Down and out, I feel bad for you as a fellow realtor. On boards such as these you will not get any sympathy for getting scorched except from your brethren.
I would proceed as follows:
1 – Go immediately to my broker and tell him/her what is going on. I would imagine that your brokerage has a legal staff because they also lost potential income with the commission ommission. I would think that there are legal resources you can draw on to help you out. It seems like perhaps you have already done this.
2 – Did you have a buyers representation agreement in place with your clients? At the very least an agency disclosure signed by them?
Have you had any contact with these good friends at all lately? It is unfortunate that they went through the purchase knowing that you were getting shafted. What was most likely unknown to them, and most everyone who buys from a builder directly, is that having a savy realtor with you usually results in a much better deal then when you are on your own.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPS (IMO) yeah that was my point. That crap inventory (as a percentage of the total) should remain fairly consistent. Again though in the hot market the crap inventory will sell, however in our market it doesn’t. Yet it is still crappy…
sdr thanks for the tip!
-
AuthorPosts
