Masses believe market will rebound, sales flat

[powayseller]

Is nationwide housing activity picking up?

In San Diego, the sales drop has leveled off. Sales were decreasing by 10% in Q1 (quarter 1, January – March), 20% in Q2, and 30% in Q3. I expected this slide to continue, so that this 4th quarter would be down 40% from last year. But that is not happening. The decline has stopped. Sales are holding flat at 30% down year over year.

At a recent auction, my realtor was amazed at all the pentup demand. He was inundated with phone calls from potential buyers, and there were many at the auction. It just goes to show us that the homeownership rate is not satisfied in San Diego, and that there is a lot of pent up demand. Every time the prices drop, more people enter the market.

With unemployment at 3.6% and credit cheap and abundant, and people still eager to buy, there are still plenty of buyers out there.

My theory is that the 30% drop in sales is due to investors leaving the market. However, the Nesting Young Couple is still in the market. They don’t understand housing cycles, and they want to buy. There is so much demand. I bet that a lot of people on this forum want to buy but don’t only because they are priced out. Let’s be honest: how many of us would buy if prices were low enough that we could get a 30 year fixed loan, vs. how many of us would buy when the housing market hits bottom?

The fact is, only a handful of people in this country even understand the housing bubble. The lower sales is thus not a result of people having decided to wait it out, but due to investors leaving. It sure seems like Jane and Joe Smith are still buying. Most people believe this downturn is temporary, maybe until spring, and then prices will turn back up.

Until the reality sets in, that this is a long drawn out housing bust and/or we get higher unemployment, the sales drop will not accelerate. Psychology reversal has not set in yet.

My friend in Phoenix said that sales have really picked up in the last month.

My fried in Encinitas noted that two homes sold within one week this month.

Now I read on Calculated Risk that mortgage applications are up for several weeks in a row.

So there appears to be a temporary rebound. As I wrote before, there is a seasonal component to the rebound. December sales exceed November sales by 2% – 35%, every single year since Dataquick started gathering data in 1988. In the last 3 years, the rebound has been 17%, 11%, and 8% (2005).

However, despite the increased activity, prices are still falling.

Is the market staging a temporary rally before it goes down further? Has anyone else noticed a temporary rally in sales?

When will John and Jane Doe realize this market is down for good, and stop buying homes?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Mortgage rates have dropped considerably in the last several months. This has a positive effect on home sales and supports prices. This has helped dampen the slide.

[sdrealtor]

Prices have fallen to levels in many parts of the county where people had at least some level of belief in the fundamentals behind them and are starting to re-enter the market. Builders have cancelled numerous new projects, slowed down construction and cleared out alot of standing inventory (of course there are some exceptions). This Spring could hold together before we get another healthy price slashing between July 2007 and October 2007.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I found the following to be a bit counterintuitive:

“There is so much demand. I bet that a lot of people on this forum want to buy but don’t only because they are priced out. Let’s be honest: how many of us would buy if prices were low enough that we could get a 30 year fixed loan, vs. how many of us would buy when the housing market hits bottom?
… The fact is, only a handful of people in this country even understand the housing bubble. … ”

When the time comes that a sufficient number of people can afford to buy with 30-year fixed rate loans won’t real estate then be based on solid fundamentals ?

SO, do people who are waiting in the wings to purchase a house that they can afford with conservative financing not understand the bubble. I thought that was the premise of the bubble, that prices are out of line with fundamentals. Maybe I’m one of the ones that doesn’t understand the script for how the bubble plays out ???

[powayseller]

Most people on this forum, (just going by the ones I met) are in the higher earnings category. So they could buy a home at $350K – $500K on a 30 year fixed. The only reason they are not buying now, is because prices are still a little too high.

If the median were at $450K (instead of $535K for a resale single family home), many people on this forum would be buying by now, I think.

So the lack of buyers has more to do with being priced out, rather than believing there is a housing bubble. I think many people here are not wanting to wait 5 years to buy, but that is how long it will take for this market to bottom out. Many people are actively looking at homes, and when the prices come down enough that they can buy with a 30 year fixed rate loan, they will buy. They won’t want to wait 5 years. Especially if they are a nesting couple, or there is a wife who really wants her own house.

This is just a guess, so I am interested in the feedback from lurkers/posters who have never bought a home. Are you renting because you cannot afford to buy now (or would need an exotic loan or 100% financing to buy now), or are you renting with the expectation that you will buy in 3-5 years when prices hit a bottom?

I am in the second group. But I think there are few with my plan.

There are so many people waiting in the wings, and they don’t really understand the bubble, or they read this stuff and think it can’t really happen, or they will be happy to buy a house at $400K and not worry if it falls to $250K later. They so badly want a house, that they don’t care if they end up upside down on a mortgage.

However, by the time the spring rebound doesn’t materialize, the reverse psychology will set in, and then people will be afraid to buy, worried that prices can fall even lower. We’re just not there yet. Most of the people I speak with believe prices will turn up again in the spring, or next year sometime,because in California prices go up in the long run.

When I ask, “Don’t you rememher the last downturn, and that prices dropped up to 30%”? The answer is, “Yes, they dropped 30% but they went so much higher. Prices will drop now for 1-2 years but then they will go much higher. It always happens that way in California”.

So the perception is that even if prices drop, they will soon enough go up, and go up much higher than our recent peak. So some people will just ride out this temporary downturn, hoping their house will just grow to the sun…

[SD Realtor]

PS –

I haven’t been posting as much but I have stated exactly what you posted. I see that demand is still out there and we have kind of hit an equilibrium that unfortunately will stall the deterioration. The market will need another kick before it rachets down again. I don’t see that kick being long term rates, so the only hope is for a massive jump in defaults. Again even this is pesky as the banks are not pricing as aggressively as I would have hoped.

As sdrealtor noted in his area he has seen an increase in pendings. I noted that as well several weeks back.

It is discouraging but I suppose it is part of the natural cycle.

SD Realtor

[an]

Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. If you follow something close enough, you’ll see dead cat bounce. That’s my theory. In regards to demand, I think buyer demand will always be there. The big question is, how much of those demand is from ABLE buyers. Right now, lending is still very relaxed, so the # of ABLE buyers are still high. But what if bank start to tighten lending requirement to the level it was in the early 90s. I think that will decrease # of ABLE buyers dramatically. Fed is still worry about inflation, hence the hold on rate instead of cutting. I think there are two things that will kick the decline into high gears: 1 is the jump in defaults. Which will then cause #2, the tightening of lending standard because of high default.

[ibjames]

I think I am one of the poorer on this forums 🙂

I am the younger couple looking to buy a home with my wife, but will not let myself sign a crazy loan to get one. I just read the happenings on this site and try to keep up with everything to the best of my abilites, and answer questions to other people that might have them.

My wife and I used to be the ones that couldn’t wait to get a place, but now are content with sitting on the fence without even looking at RE until 2008. Even then might be too soon, but I admit it would be hard to wait till 2010.

I’m hoping something happens that swings things back in our favor on the housing side that doesn’t damage everything at the same time

[Bugs]

I’ll bet you won’t find it so hard to wait if the prices take another drop during Q1 2007.

[Steve Beebo]

No one knows for sure how long the downturn will last. It could be 5 more years, but it could only be 1-2 years. Just because the last downturn lasted 5-6 years, and just because the run-up in prices was sharper this time, doesn’t necessarily mean that this time will be 5-6 years or longer.

Median resale prices have dropped 5-6% so far. There are a lot of people that think they won’t go lower, (which is wrong), and there are a lot of people that think they won’t drop more than another 3, 5, 7, or 10%. They may or may not be correct, but they still want to take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates and are buying as we speak. Not everyone wants to live in a rental for another 3-5 years.

My theory is, if you can afford to buy a home now with a 30 year fixed rate, and if you sincerely believe that you will be able to stay in the house or condo for 10 years or more, you really can’t go wrong by buying in the near future, start paying down your mortgage, posssibly improve your property, and in 20 or 30 years you can live with no house payment.

Who knows where mortgage rates will be in 2-5 years.

[sdrealtor]

ARRGGGHHHH! Stop with the median is down only X% so far. Enough already. You know better. You know its a useless measure. If you want an ounce of credibility start posting real examples you are seeing in the field. As an appraiser you see refis in addition to purchases. That is something of real value that you can provide not the same nonsense we get from the industry talking heads. We have enough babbling fools out there. Step up to the plate and truly add something of value. Tell us about how the values are coming in relative to prices paid the two to three years ago.

[powayseller]

I wouldn’t call a flattening of a decline line as a dead cat bounce. Compared to last year, our sales are still down 30% year over year.

My charts from the last downturn mirror this well. A decline of 20% year over year in sales lasted at that level for one year, before dropping further to a 50% decline year over year.

As AN says, nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

sdrealtor, thanks for calling Steve Beebo out to step up to the plate. Both you and SD Realtor, and Bugs have added an invaluable service by sharing what you are seeing in the field. Why is Mr. Beebo out here defending this market – maybe he’s worried his own house is going to lose too much equity? Maybe he joined the refinance boom and can’t afford to lose the equity? Why else would an appraiser be in such a denial?

[Steve Beebo]

Or maybe, just maybe, Powayseller is wondering if by paying 8% in closing costs to sell their home, plus moving expenses twice, (at least twice – maybe more), plus the hassles of moving, and the loss of a tax advantage, that maybe they would have been better off by staying in their house, and continuing to pay down priciple on their loan, unless prices drop by a total of more than 12-15%, which may or may not happen. Also, resale prices on SFRs in Poway have not dropped by much at all up to this point.

Powayseller, I hope that things do work out for you – I think you will be able to tell when the market has bottomed out, whenever that is. But no one knows for sure how far prices will drop. There are too many variables, (strength or weakness of the national and local ecomomy, wars, long-term interest rates, inflation, etc.) But it could be a lot less than you predict.

We have indeed lost equity in our house in the last year, but I don’t care, because we’re not moving. I did cash out of two investment properties in the last two years, and paid the capital gains tax. If prices do drop by more than I think, it’s OK, because I have two daughters in their early to mid-20’s who may want to buy in the next three years or so – so it would be better for them.

sdrealtor – I wonder if you are talking crap about the market to your clients who are interested in buying. Let me guess – probably not. How can you let anyone buy if the future looks so bleak?

[powayseller]

Steve, my closing costs were about half of what you estimate (tisk, tisk, don’t you know what closing costs are?) My moving costs were $1K with the help of a moving company, and my tax deduction is cancelled out by no longer having to pay property taxes. My rent is $800/month less than my mortgage, and I save $500/month no longer shopping at Home Depot. My husband has so much more free time for the family, and we live closer to town saving $250 per month in gas and spending less time driving (6 hours per week for me and the kids) My daughter can walk to her dance class, instead of me driving for 30 minutes each way and waiting for 1 hour for her to finish. My kids ride their bikes now, and couldn’t before because it was too hilly on our street.

My life is so much better since I sold my house! Oh, and I forgot the big bucks I’m earning in interest on my CDs, from the equity I had in my house. Oh, and I have no debts, because I paid off my credit card when I sold my house. But I should stop now – I’m just bragging… meanwhile, you are a debt slave to a rapidly depreciating asset.

By the way, haven’t you learned anything about the cyclical nature of real estate?

[Steve Beebo]

PS – Most people do end up paying 8% to sell their house, (6% commission plus another 2% in other costs) – If you did it in 4% – that’s great. If it is all working out for you, I’m honestly happy for you – I’m not doubting you. But not everyone timed it like you did by selling late in 2005.

If someone owns a condo that has already dropped by 20%, (some have, but not all), I think it’s too late to sell now. You might as well bite the bullet and hope for the best. And also, you have to admit that no one, even you, knows for sure what the market will be like in two years. All we can do is make our best educated guess and do what we think will work best for us.

About the stock market …. well, never mind.

[Author]

Posts