[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R,

Well said. As I posted in response to cooprider the inventory is only half the equation. The problem is that the other side of the equation . . . demand . . . is much harder to measure. The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment. Arguments of impending explosions in inventory due to “phantom inventory” or “ARM reset waves” have been made for over 12 months here and yet the inventory has shrunk. That doesn’t mean that such phenomena won’t bloat the inventory in the future but so far it hasn’t. I’m more of a “show me the money” type when it comes to data. I fully agree that the demand side while hard to quantify is definitely weak. Unfortuneately all you have is either stale hard data (closed sales) or anecedotal current data (broker traffic). I was actually part of the demand last month when I lost out on a lowball bid on a REO in 4S. Even I have since backed off and am continuing to wait for now even as I closely watch and monitor all relevant data. No doubt inventory levels is one dimension but a very important one. Put me in the Pig camp of one who has the money to buy, will buy at some point in the future, and am actively assessing all data in advance of perhaps the most important financial decision I will make in my life. I get the sense that many of these other types are just in the camp of attack even hard data if it suggests anything other than Armageddon is coming to the SD housing market. Their as hapless as the fools that piled in at the top in the sense that this sort of attitude will probably mean the will miss the bottom, assuming they even have the resources to by SD RE at any level and aren’t here just grave dancing

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R,

Well said. As I posted in response to cooprider the inventory is only half the equation. The problem is that the other side of the equation . . . demand . . . is much harder to measure. The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment. Arguments of impending explosions in inventory due to “phantom inventory” or “ARM reset waves” have been made for over 12 months here and yet the inventory has shrunk. That doesn’t mean that such phenomena won’t bloat the inventory in the future but so far it hasn’t. I’m more of a “show me the money” type when it comes to data. I fully agree that the demand side while hard to quantify is definitely weak. Unfortuneately all you have is either stale hard data (closed sales) or anecedotal current data (broker traffic). I was actually part of the demand last month when I lost out on a lowball bid on a REO in 4S. Even I have since backed off and am continuing to wait for now even as I closely watch and monitor all relevant data. No doubt inventory levels is one dimension but a very important one. Put me in the Pig camp of one who has the money to buy, will buy at some point in the future, and am actively assessing all data in advance of perhaps the most important financial decision I will make in my life. I get the sense that many of these other types are just in the camp of attack even hard data if it suggests anything other than Armageddon is coming to the SD housing market. Their as hapless as the fools that piled in at the top in the sense that this sort of attitude will probably mean the will miss the bottom, assuming they even have the resources to by SD RE at any level and aren’t here just grave dancing

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R,

Well said. As I posted in response to cooprider the inventory is only half the equation. The problem is that the other side of the equation . . . demand . . . is much harder to measure. The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment. Arguments of impending explosions in inventory due to “phantom inventory” or “ARM reset waves” have been made for over 12 months here and yet the inventory has shrunk. That doesn’t mean that such phenomena won’t bloat the inventory in the future but so far it hasn’t. I’m more of a “show me the money” type when it comes to data. I fully agree that the demand side while hard to quantify is definitely weak. Unfortuneately all you have is either stale hard data (closed sales) or anecedotal current data (broker traffic). I was actually part of the demand last month when I lost out on a lowball bid on a REO in 4S. Even I have since backed off and am continuing to wait for now even as I closely watch and monitor all relevant data. No doubt inventory levels is one dimension but a very important one. Put me in the Pig camp of one who has the money to buy, will buy at some point in the future, and am actively assessing all data in advance of perhaps the most important financial decision I will make in my life. I get the sense that many of these other types are just in the camp of attack even hard data if it suggests anything other than Armageddon is coming to the SD housing market. Their as hapless as the fools that piled in at the top in the sense that this sort of attitude will probably mean the will miss the bottom, assuming they even have the resources to by SD RE at any level and aren’t here just grave dancing

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R,

Well said. As I posted in response to cooprider the inventory is only half the equation. The problem is that the other side of the equation . . . demand . . . is much harder to measure. The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment. Arguments of impending explosions in inventory due to “phantom inventory” or “ARM reset waves” have been made for over 12 months here and yet the inventory has shrunk. That doesn’t mean that such phenomena won’t bloat the inventory in the future but so far it hasn’t. I’m more of a “show me the money” type when it comes to data. I fully agree that the demand side while hard to quantify is definitely weak. Unfortuneately all you have is either stale hard data (closed sales) or anecedotal current data (broker traffic). I was actually part of the demand last month when I lost out on a lowball bid on a REO in 4S. Even I have since backed off and am continuing to wait for now even as I closely watch and monitor all relevant data. No doubt inventory levels is one dimension but a very important one. Put me in the Pig camp of one who has the money to buy, will buy at some point in the future, and am actively assessing all data in advance of perhaps the most important financial decision I will make in my life. I get the sense that many of these other types are just in the camp of attack even hard data if it suggests anything other than Armageddon is coming to the SD housing market. Their as hapless as the fools that piled in at the top in the sense that this sort of attitude will probably mean the will miss the bottom, assuming they even have the resources to by SD RE at any level and aren’t here just grave dancing

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R,

Well said. As I posted in response to cooprider the inventory is only half the equation. The problem is that the other side of the equation . . . demand . . . is much harder to measure. The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment. Arguments of impending explosions in inventory due to “phantom inventory” or “ARM reset waves” have been made for over 12 months here and yet the inventory has shrunk. That doesn’t mean that such phenomena won’t bloat the inventory in the future but so far it hasn’t. I’m more of a “show me the money” type when it comes to data. I fully agree that the demand side while hard to quantify is definitely weak. Unfortuneately all you have is either stale hard data (closed sales) or anecedotal current data (broker traffic). I was actually part of the demand last month when I lost out on a lowball bid on a REO in 4S. Even I have since backed off and am continuing to wait for now even as I closely watch and monitor all relevant data. No doubt inventory levels is one dimension but a very important one. Put me in the Pig camp of one who has the money to buy, will buy at some point in the future, and am actively assessing all data in advance of perhaps the most important financial decision I will make in my life. I get the sense that many of these other types are just in the camp of attack even hard data if it suggests anything other than Armageddon is coming to the SD housing market. Their as hapless as the fools that piled in at the top in the sense that this sort of attitude will probably mean the will miss the bottom, assuming they even have the resources to by SD RE at any level and aren’t here just grave dancing

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

cooperider14,

Do you have a problem with reading simple English . . . . In this post I said exactly nothing of my own opinion. I simply brought facts from the MLS to the table. Exactly how has ocrenter proved anything wrong in terms of what the actual numbers of listed homes for sale on the MLS this year versus last year are???? It may be a challenge for you but re-read the original post in this thread. I only bring the facts. The facts speak for themselves. As Rich’s motto says . . . “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.” I’m just bringing you the data.

Here ya go coop . . . just in case you missed the first day of Econ 101. There is this little phenomena called Supply and Demand which affects the price of a given commodity, in this case housing. Well the best available hard data on the Supply side of the equation comes from . . . the MLS. Now of course this is only half the equation. Unfortunately there is no hard repository of data indicating exactly how many buyers their are out in the market actively looking to purchase (uh . . . that would be the “Demand”) one of the homes in the “Supply.” All you have is anecdotal evidence in the form of realtors who post here and comment on the current level of traffic and interest. Median Price, Case-Shiller, etc. are all somewhat stale data in that the arms length purchase agreement event of a buyer agreeing to a price with a given seller represented in those numbers is stale by at least 2-3 months. The MLS data is current however. Thus while being only half the equation it is important data.

I know that for most restating the obvious (Econ 101 – Supply/Demand etc) in this way is not necessary. But in your case coop I’ll gladly try to educate you a bit.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

cooperider14,

Do you have a problem with reading simple English . . . . In this post I said exactly nothing of my own opinion. I simply brought facts from the MLS to the table. Exactly how has ocrenter proved anything wrong in terms of what the actual numbers of listed homes for sale on the MLS this year versus last year are???? It may be a challenge for you but re-read the original post in this thread. I only bring the facts. The facts speak for themselves. As Rich’s motto says . . . “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.” I’m just bringing you the data.

Here ya go coop . . . just in case you missed the first day of Econ 101. There is this little phenomena called Supply and Demand which affects the price of a given commodity, in this case housing. Well the best available hard data on the Supply side of the equation comes from . . . the MLS. Now of course this is only half the equation. Unfortunately there is no hard repository of data indicating exactly how many buyers their are out in the market actively looking to purchase (uh . . . that would be the “Demand”) one of the homes in the “Supply.” All you have is anecdotal evidence in the form of realtors who post here and comment on the current level of traffic and interest. Median Price, Case-Shiller, etc. are all somewhat stale data in that the arms length purchase agreement event of a buyer agreeing to a price with a given seller represented in those numbers is stale by at least 2-3 months. The MLS data is current however. Thus while being only half the equation it is important data.

I know that for most restating the obvious (Econ 101 – Supply/Demand etc) in this way is not necessary. But in your case coop I’ll gladly try to educate you a bit.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

cooperider14,

Do you have a problem with reading simple English . . . . In this post I said exactly nothing of my own opinion. I simply brought facts from the MLS to the table. Exactly how has ocrenter proved anything wrong in terms of what the actual numbers of listed homes for sale on the MLS this year versus last year are???? It may be a challenge for you but re-read the original post in this thread. I only bring the facts. The facts speak for themselves. As Rich’s motto says . . . “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.” I’m just bringing you the data.

Here ya go coop . . . just in case you missed the first day of Econ 101. There is this little phenomena called Supply and Demand which affects the price of a given commodity, in this case housing. Well the best available hard data on the Supply side of the equation comes from . . . the MLS. Now of course this is only half the equation. Unfortunately there is no hard repository of data indicating exactly how many buyers their are out in the market actively looking to purchase (uh . . . that would be the “Demand”) one of the homes in the “Supply.” All you have is anecdotal evidence in the form of realtors who post here and comment on the current level of traffic and interest. Median Price, Case-Shiller, etc. are all somewhat stale data in that the arms length purchase agreement event of a buyer agreeing to a price with a given seller represented in those numbers is stale by at least 2-3 months. The MLS data is current however. Thus while being only half the equation it is important data.

I know that for most restating the obvious (Econ 101 – Supply/Demand etc) in this way is not necessary. But in your case coop I’ll gladly try to educate you a bit.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

cooperider14,

Do you have a problem with reading simple English . . . . In this post I said exactly nothing of my own opinion. I simply brought facts from the MLS to the table. Exactly how has ocrenter proved anything wrong in terms of what the actual numbers of listed homes for sale on the MLS this year versus last year are???? It may be a challenge for you but re-read the original post in this thread. I only bring the facts. The facts speak for themselves. As Rich’s motto says . . . “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.” I’m just bringing you the data.

Here ya go coop . . . just in case you missed the first day of Econ 101. There is this little phenomena called Supply and Demand which affects the price of a given commodity, in this case housing. Well the best available hard data on the Supply side of the equation comes from . . . the MLS. Now of course this is only half the equation. Unfortunately there is no hard repository of data indicating exactly how many buyers their are out in the market actively looking to purchase (uh . . . that would be the “Demand”) one of the homes in the “Supply.” All you have is anecdotal evidence in the form of realtors who post here and comment on the current level of traffic and interest. Median Price, Case-Shiller, etc. are all somewhat stale data in that the arms length purchase agreement event of a buyer agreeing to a price with a given seller represented in those numbers is stale by at least 2-3 months. The MLS data is current however. Thus while being only half the equation it is important data.

I know that for most restating the obvious (Econ 101 – Supply/Demand etc) in this way is not necessary. But in your case coop I’ll gladly try to educate you a bit.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

cooperider14,

Do you have a problem with reading simple English . . . . In this post I said exactly nothing of my own opinion. I simply brought facts from the MLS to the table. Exactly how has ocrenter proved anything wrong in terms of what the actual numbers of listed homes for sale on the MLS this year versus last year are???? It may be a challenge for you but re-read the original post in this thread. I only bring the facts. The facts speak for themselves. As Rich’s motto says . . . “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.” I’m just bringing you the data.

Here ya go coop . . . just in case you missed the first day of Econ 101. There is this little phenomena called Supply and Demand which affects the price of a given commodity, in this case housing. Well the best available hard data on the Supply side of the equation comes from . . . the MLS. Now of course this is only half the equation. Unfortunately there is no hard repository of data indicating exactly how many buyers their are out in the market actively looking to purchase (uh . . . that would be the “Demand”) one of the homes in the “Supply.” All you have is anecdotal evidence in the form of realtors who post here and comment on the current level of traffic and interest. Median Price, Case-Shiller, etc. are all somewhat stale data in that the arms length purchase agreement event of a buyer agreeing to a price with a given seller represented in those numbers is stale by at least 2-3 months. The MLS data is current however. Thus while being only half the equation it is important data.

I know that for most restating the obvious (Econ 101 – Supply/Demand etc) in this way is not necessary. But in your case coop I’ll gladly try to educate you a bit.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

It appears YOY inventory in all of the major “bubble” markets has peaked and is now down on a YOY, not just San Deigo.

RE Inventory levels YOY:

Riverside: -8.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/

Orange County: -4.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine

Sacramento: -13.7% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville/

It appears San Diego’s shrinking inventories are not an anomally. The SD, OC, Sacramento, Riverside RE markets have led the rest of the nation through the various stages of the RE cycle both up and down. This collective group of market leaders now all have declining inventories.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

It appears YOY inventory in all of the major “bubble” markets has peaked and is now down on a YOY, not just San Deigo.

RE Inventory levels YOY:

Riverside: -8.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/

Orange County: -4.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine

Sacramento: -13.7% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville/

It appears San Diego’s shrinking inventories are not an anomally. The SD, OC, Sacramento, Riverside RE markets have led the rest of the nation through the various stages of the RE cycle both up and down. This collective group of market leaders now all have declining inventories.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

It appears YOY inventory in all of the major “bubble” markets has peaked and is now down on a YOY, not just San Deigo.

RE Inventory levels YOY:

Riverside: -8.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/

Orange County: -4.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine

Sacramento: -13.7% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville/

It appears San Diego’s shrinking inventories are not an anomally. The SD, OC, Sacramento, Riverside RE markets have led the rest of the nation through the various stages of the RE cycle both up and down. This collective group of market leaders now all have declining inventories.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

It appears YOY inventory in all of the major “bubble” markets has peaked and is now down on a YOY, not just San Deigo.

RE Inventory levels YOY:

Riverside: -8.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/

Orange County: -4.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine

Sacramento: -13.7% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville/

It appears San Diego’s shrinking inventories are not an anomally. The SD, OC, Sacramento, Riverside RE markets have led the rest of the nation through the various stages of the RE cycle both up and down. This collective group of market leaders now all have declining inventories.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

It appears YOY inventory in all of the major “bubble” markets has peaked and is now down on a YOY, not just San Deigo.

RE Inventory levels YOY:

Riverside: -8.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/

Orange County: -4.0% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine

Sacramento: -13.7% http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville/

It appears San Diego’s shrinking inventories are not an anomally. The SD, OC, Sacramento, Riverside RE markets have led the rest of the nation through the various stages of the RE cycle both up and down. This collective group of market leaders now all have declining inventories.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

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