[rocket science]

Had trouble with the graph.
[img_assist|nid=4336|title=Housing Data|desc=Had trouble with the graph|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]
rs

[rocket science]

Had trouble with the graph.
[img_assist|nid=4336|title=Housing Data|desc=Had trouble with the graph|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]
rs

[rocket science]

After seeing Alex’s Graph I couldn’t resist.
BTW, love the log scale to minimize the effect.

First let me admit that I do not know the pedigree of the housing data in the graph but believe it to be accurate as it came from a spreadsheet that I downloaded a while back in May of 2007 from a link from a previous thread.(as best I can remember). THe ‘Alex” data is a few points eyeballed off of his graph and approximated in between but gets the basic shape.

That said, just put together a quick picture of the data and some curves assuming 6.2% (that appears to be what Alex used) and even a generous 5% growth in value and then a 4% growth rate. The anchor point for the ‘growth’ data is the first available point I picked off of the ‘Alex’ data.

Some observations, not to be taken as fact:
Although I think 5% is generous it is curious that it basically intersects the bottom of the last correction in the mid 90s.

So if one were to ASSUME the 5% growth rate is what houses should expect to appreciate over a long period of time, the prices should decrease approximately the following amounts for the “bottom” to occur in the following years.

2008 48%
2009 45%
2010 43%
2011 40%
2012 37%
2013 34%

And if the “growth” is at ~5.5% it matches the 2017 prediction in one of his “A Bubble Primer” post on when per capita income divided by the median-priced home meets the historical average based on prices remaining constant and income increases at an annual rate of 4.6%

Again, just observations but it looks like the fall may be with us a while.
rs

[rocket science]

After seeing Alex’s Graph I couldn’t resist.
BTW, love the log scale to minimize the effect.

First let me admit that I do not know the pedigree of the housing data in the graph but believe it to be accurate as it came from a spreadsheet that I downloaded a while back in May of 2007 from a link from a previous thread.(as best I can remember). THe ‘Alex” data is a few points eyeballed off of his graph and approximated in between but gets the basic shape.

That said, just put together a quick picture of the data and some curves assuming 6.2% (that appears to be what Alex used) and even a generous 5% growth in value and then a 4% growth rate. The anchor point for the ‘growth’ data is the first available point I picked off of the ‘Alex’ data.

Some observations, not to be taken as fact:
Although I think 5% is generous it is curious that it basically intersects the bottom of the last correction in the mid 90s.

So if one were to ASSUME the 5% growth rate is what houses should expect to appreciate over a long period of time, the prices should decrease approximately the following amounts for the “bottom” to occur in the following years.

2008 48%
2009 45%
2010 43%
2011 40%
2012 37%
2013 34%

And if the “growth” is at ~5.5% it matches the 2017 prediction in one of his “A Bubble Primer” post on when per capita income divided by the median-priced home meets the historical average based on prices remaining constant and income increases at an annual rate of 4.6%

Again, just observations but it looks like the fall may be with us a while.
rs

[rocket science]

After seeing Alex’s Graph I couldn’t resist.
BTW, love the log scale to minimize the effect.

First let me admit that I do not know the pedigree of the housing data in the graph but believe it to be accurate as it came from a spreadsheet that I downloaded a while back in May of 2007 from a link from a previous thread.(as best I can remember). THe ‘Alex” data is a few points eyeballed off of his graph and approximated in between but gets the basic shape.

That said, just put together a quick picture of the data and some curves assuming 6.2% (that appears to be what Alex used) and even a generous 5% growth in value and then a 4% growth rate. The anchor point for the ‘growth’ data is the first available point I picked off of the ‘Alex’ data.

Some observations, not to be taken as fact:
Although I think 5% is generous it is curious that it basically intersects the bottom of the last correction in the mid 90s.

So if one were to ASSUME the 5% growth rate is what houses should expect to appreciate over a long period of time, the prices should decrease approximately the following amounts for the “bottom” to occur in the following years.

2008 48%
2009 45%
2010 43%
2011 40%
2012 37%
2013 34%

And if the “growth” is at ~5.5% it matches the 2017 prediction in one of his “A Bubble Primer” post on when per capita income divided by the median-priced home meets the historical average based on prices remaining constant and income increases at an annual rate of 4.6%

Again, just observations but it looks like the fall may be with us a while.
rs

[rocket science]

This was a good article, I am glad someone posted it.

The very end summed it up.

"It's got to get worse before it gets better, said Michael Davin, executive vice president of Catalist Homes in Hermosa Beach, echoing the new mantra of the real estate business.

"We need a shakeout to stabilize the market," he said. "Lenders are going to have to start cutting prices big time."
 

There is another Article today too.

Credit fears may curb home sales

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-escrow13aug13,1,2680054.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

A paragraph that must certainly have an effect.

"Mortgage broker Ruben Perez started seeing lenders change or eliminate their mortgage programs for riskier sub-prime loans about six months ago, and they seemed to do so every quarter. Then lenders started sending brokers notification of changes every month. Within the last week or so, their notices started coming every day and included changes in loan programs affecting even the best borrowers.

rs

[rocket science]

This was a good article, I am glad someone posted it.

The very end summed it up.

"It's got to get worse before it gets better, said Michael Davin, executive vice president of Catalist Homes in Hermosa Beach, echoing the new mantra of the real estate business.

"We need a shakeout to stabilize the market," he said. "Lenders are going to have to start cutting prices big time."
 

There is another Article today too.

Credit fears may curb home sales

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-escrow13aug13,1,2680054.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

A paragraph that must certainly have an effect.

"Mortgage broker Ruben Perez started seeing lenders change or eliminate their mortgage programs for riskier sub-prime loans about six months ago, and they seemed to do so every quarter. Then lenders started sending brokers notification of changes every month. Within the last week or so, their notices started coming every day and included changes in loan programs affecting even the best borrowers.

rs

[rocket science]

This was a good article, I am glad someone posted it.

The very end summed it up.

"It's got to get worse before it gets better, said Michael Davin, executive vice president of Catalist Homes in Hermosa Beach, echoing the new mantra of the real estate business.

"We need a shakeout to stabilize the market," he said. "Lenders are going to have to start cutting prices big time."
 

There is another Article today too.

Credit fears may curb home sales

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-escrow13aug13,1,2680054.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

A paragraph that must certainly have an effect.

"Mortgage broker Ruben Perez started seeing lenders change or eliminate their mortgage programs for riskier sub-prime loans about six months ago, and they seemed to do so every quarter. Then lenders started sending brokers notification of changes every month. Within the last week or so, their notices started coming every day and included changes in loan programs affecting even the best borrowers.

rs

[rocket science]

"..people not wanting to take responsibility for their actions. Period."

I would say that hits the nail on the head…..

And I am sick of it too.

rs

[rocket science]

"..people not wanting to take responsibility for their actions. Period."

I would say that hits the nail on the head…..

And I am sick of it too.

rs

[rocket science]

"..people not wanting to take responsibility for their actions. Period."

I would say that hits the nail on the head…..

And I am sick of it too.

rs

[rocket science]

Related article from LA Times contined a nice quote

Housing is "a slow-moving train wreck," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. But "it just doesn't seem at this point that it's spilling over" into the rest of the economy.

 http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-markets11jul11,0,32243.story?coll=la-home-center

rs

[rocket science]

Related article from LA Times contined a nice quote

Housing is "a slow-moving train wreck," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. But "it just doesn't seem at this point that it's spilling over" into the rest of the economy.

 http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-markets11jul11,0,32243.story?coll=la-home-center

rs

[rocket science]

I love the brown yard syndrom on the repo

rs

[rocket science]

I love the brown yard syndrom on the repo

rs

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