[Rich Toscano]

Hi sddude – yes, your memory is very good, this site began in mid-2004. And Big Short was a great movie!

[Rich Toscano]

I for one would love to see an infographic or a walk through of how retiring boomers are either raising rates or keeping them high. I’ve heard the theory and it sounds good, but the mechanics of such things really matter.

The main idea I’ve heard is:

• working people create supply and demand
• retired people create only demand

…therefore an increase in the ratio of retired:working people will increase demand:supply which puts upward pressure on inflation and rates.

My view fwiw is that while it sounds compelling on the surface, in reality there are too many moving parts for this kind of analysis to be useful. But that’s the theory as far as I know.

Edit – forgot the infographic:

 

[Rich Toscano]

“Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year–almost double the number a year ago.”

Gosh, I wonder why.

To escape this thread?

[Rich Toscano]

Not familiar with either but Morningstar is pretty solid in general.

[Rich Toscano]

Also not free either. 🙂 Totally worth it though!

[Rich Toscano]

Not a site but this is by far the best investing book I ever read:

Investing Amid Low Expected Returns
by Antti Ilmanen

[Rich Toscano]

Zero Hedge’s main message is “Please click this link.” (Closely followed by: America is bad, Putin is good, and we are all doomed).

Also they “lean right” the way Emporer Palpatine “leans right.”

Not going to get involved in endless loop San Diego debate… I’m just here to bag on Zero Hedge.

[Rich Toscano]

(via a neat site called Zero Hedge)

Definitely the best word to describe Zero Hedge, a doomer clickbait website that amplifies Kremlin propaganda, is “neat”.

(Source for the Russia thing: AP News “[U.S. intelligence officials] said Zero Hedge, which has 1.2 million Twitter followers, published articles created by Moscow-controlled media”)

(Source for the doomer clickbait thing: spending 10 seconds on Zero Hedge)

As much as I hate to contribute to this, the most tediously bitchy thread on the internet, I’d hate it even more to let praise for Zero Hedge go unanswered.

[Rich Toscano]

I second that!

[Rich Toscano]

I’ve always wondered about this too. FWIW — we had a remodel done on our house, they did a great job and I was shocked at how fast they got it done. So speed doesn’t necessarily rule out quality.

What I always worry about more is: if they are just doing a flip, they probably cut every corner possible, cost-wise. I was always suspicious of quick flips just because the incentive seemed to make things look superficially good but to otherwise keep quality as low as possible.

That’s my semi-useless take; perhaps some more experienced buyers have better info.

[Rich Toscano]

BTW, I said “So, why sell? ” not “there is no reason to sell”.  It might sound the same to you, but not to me.  One is black/white while the other is not.

Yes, I was interpreting those as largely the same statement, sorry if I misunderstood.

[Rich Toscano]

SD home prices are up 27% from 2 years ago. They’re up 60% from 5 years ago. In addition to the appreciation, you also get back your down payment and all the principal you put it. Minus commission, but still: a giant pile of money.

Regarding your other points: the question you asked was, why would you sell? The answer is that if you sell, you get a giant pile of liquid money, which is valuable (especially if you’ve lost your job).

Whether this is the right choice for you or anyone completely depends on the situation; I was just rejecting your premise that there is no reason to sell. There’s a very good one, that may in some cases offset the issues you raised.

(BTW your inflation math is flawed… eg it assumes no return on the pile of money, and also fails to account for all the cash going out the door if you own.)

[Rich Toscano]

Also, if you did lose your job and own a home with a sub 4% interest rate that you bought 2-3 years ago, more likely than not, you can rent it out for more than your mortgage.  So, why sell?

Because you’d get a giant pile of money.

Where would you live?

In a rental paid for from your giant pile of money.

[Rich Toscano]

Sad news… thanks for letting us know.

[Rich Toscano]

buyers out there

[Author]

Posts