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Reality
Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]As for this X shaped recovery theory ,
I would say yes we won’t be getting back to 2005 anytime soon, but I don’t know many people driving 26 year old cars either.
Just replacement buying and population growth would get us 70% of the way back at this point.[/quote]
Replacement of what? And population doesn’t increase when jobs are scarce.
Where is the purchasing power coming from? Nothing I see except for inventory manipulation points to higher prices.
Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]As for this X shaped recovery theory ,
I would say yes we won’t be getting back to 2005 anytime soon, but I don’t know many people driving 26 year old cars either.
Just replacement buying and population growth would get us 70% of the way back at this point.[/quote]
Replacement of what? And population doesn’t increase when jobs are scarce.
Where is the purchasing power coming from? Nothing I see except for inventory manipulation points to higher prices.
ParticipantIt looks in the areas I track like banks are putting only 1-2 forclosures on the market per week, keeping the supply low. Simple supply and demand.
Who knows what the supply would be if homes weren’t being kept off the market.
How long this game can last is anyone’s guess.
ParticipantIt looks in the areas I track like banks are putting only 1-2 forclosures on the market per week, keeping the supply low. Simple supply and demand.
Who knows what the supply would be if homes weren’t being kept off the market.
How long this game can last is anyone’s guess.
ParticipantIt looks in the areas I track like banks are putting only 1-2 forclosures on the market per week, keeping the supply low. Simple supply and demand.
Who knows what the supply would be if homes weren’t being kept off the market.
How long this game can last is anyone’s guess.
ParticipantIt looks in the areas I track like banks are putting only 1-2 forclosures on the market per week, keeping the supply low. Simple supply and demand.
Who knows what the supply would be if homes weren’t being kept off the market.
How long this game can last is anyone’s guess.
ParticipantIt looks in the areas I track like banks are putting only 1-2 forclosures on the market per week, keeping the supply low. Simple supply and demand.
Who knows what the supply would be if homes weren’t being kept off the market.
How long this game can last is anyone’s guess.
Participant[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=JohnAlt91941]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
[/quote]You are mis-interpreting me. I agree those two are mostly independent. I’m just saying that we don’t know what rates will be when/if a 20% decline takes place. If they happen to be 7.5%, I’m in the same place as I was before the 20% happened.[/quote]
I think in most areas there is still much falling to do, and higher interest rates would just accelerate it. I think the threat of higher interest rates is partially responsible for this spring’s “rally”.
I also disagree that you’d be in the same place if your payment was the same. The person who bought at a lower principle and higher interest rate would benefit both by lower property taxes and a higher deducation.
Participant[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=JohnAlt91941]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
[/quote]You are mis-interpreting me. I agree those two are mostly independent. I’m just saying that we don’t know what rates will be when/if a 20% decline takes place. If they happen to be 7.5%, I’m in the same place as I was before the 20% happened.[/quote]
I think in most areas there is still much falling to do, and higher interest rates would just accelerate it. I think the threat of higher interest rates is partially responsible for this spring’s “rally”.
I also disagree that you’d be in the same place if your payment was the same. The person who bought at a lower principle and higher interest rate would benefit both by lower property taxes and a higher deducation.
Participant[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=JohnAlt91941]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
[/quote]You are mis-interpreting me. I agree those two are mostly independent. I’m just saying that we don’t know what rates will be when/if a 20% decline takes place. If they happen to be 7.5%, I’m in the same place as I was before the 20% happened.[/quote]
I think in most areas there is still much falling to do, and higher interest rates would just accelerate it. I think the threat of higher interest rates is partially responsible for this spring’s “rally”.
I also disagree that you’d be in the same place if your payment was the same. The person who bought at a lower principle and higher interest rate would benefit both by lower property taxes and a higher deducation.
Participant[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=JohnAlt91941]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
[/quote]You are mis-interpreting me. I agree those two are mostly independent. I’m just saying that we don’t know what rates will be when/if a 20% decline takes place. If they happen to be 7.5%, I’m in the same place as I was before the 20% happened.[/quote]
I think in most areas there is still much falling to do, and higher interest rates would just accelerate it. I think the threat of higher interest rates is partially responsible for this spring’s “rally”.
I also disagree that you’d be in the same place if your payment was the same. The person who bought at a lower principle and higher interest rate would benefit both by lower property taxes and a higher deducation.
Participant[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=JohnAlt91941]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
[/quote]You are mis-interpreting me. I agree those two are mostly independent. I’m just saying that we don’t know what rates will be when/if a 20% decline takes place. If they happen to be 7.5%, I’m in the same place as I was before the 20% happened.[/quote]
I think in most areas there is still much falling to do, and higher interest rates would just accelerate it. I think the threat of higher interest rates is partially responsible for this spring’s “rally”.
I also disagree that you’d be in the same place if your payment was the same. The person who bought at a lower principle and higher interest rate would benefit both by lower property taxes and a higher deducation.
Participant[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=sdcellar]yep. lots of rationalization. i almost feel like i’m at the car dealer and he’s trying to scam me with the old ‘what can you spend a month’ routine…[/quote]
If rationalization is “I bought a house I like with the payment I can afford” then, yes, I have rationalized.
Seriously, you guys think there is no risk to timing the bottom? What do you think rates will do between now and then? I’ll give you a hint, not down.
Again – if my recent purchase falls 20% but rates go to 7.5%, I will have the same payment. There is equal – at best for your argument – chance of these happening. From my POV, 7.5% is a certainty, 20% down is not.[/quote]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.
If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
Participant[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=sdcellar]yep. lots of rationalization. i almost feel like i’m at the car dealer and he’s trying to scam me with the old ‘what can you spend a month’ routine…[/quote]
If rationalization is “I bought a house I like with the payment I can afford” then, yes, I have rationalized.
Seriously, you guys think there is no risk to timing the bottom? What do you think rates will do between now and then? I’ll give you a hint, not down.
Again – if my recent purchase falls 20% but rates go to 7.5%, I will have the same payment. There is equal – at best for your argument – chance of these happening. From my POV, 7.5% is a certainty, 20% down is not.[/quote]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.
If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
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