Seeking the opinion of the buyers out there.

[Reality]

[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=JohnAlt91941]
The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.

If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.
[/quote]

You are mis-interpreting me. I agree those two are mostly independent. I’m just saying that we don’t know what rates will be when/if a 20% decline takes place. If they happen to be 7.5%, I’m in the same place as I was before the 20% happened.[/quote]

I think in most areas there is still much falling to do, and higher interest rates would just accelerate it. I think the threat of higher interest rates is partially responsible for this spring’s “rally”.

I also disagree that you’d be in the same place if your payment was the same. The person who bought at a lower principle and higher interest rate would benefit both by lower property taxes and a higher deducation.

[sunny88]

It looks like home prices are going up again! Look at this one:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090007468-4117_Del_Mar_Trails_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92130

I think it is a little overpriced….

[sunny88]

It looks like home prices are going up again! Look at this one:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090007468-4117_Del_Mar_Trails_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92130

I think it is a little overpriced….

[sunny88]

It looks like home prices are going up again! Look at this one:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090007468-4117_Del_Mar_Trails_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92130

I think it is a little overpriced….

[sunny88]

It looks like home prices are going up again! Look at this one:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090007468-4117_Del_Mar_Trails_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92130

I think it is a little overpriced….

[sunny88]

It looks like home prices are going up again! Look at this one:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090007468-4117_Del_Mar_Trails_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92130

I think it is a little overpriced….

[4plexowner]

“The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line.”

Happened to come across this info – http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/house-prices-long-tail.html

Looks to me like real prices dropped for 7 full years (ie, peak to bottom) and nominal prices (for those of you who enjoy mental masturbation) dropped for 5+ years

Click on the charts for larger images

Nominal prices
[img_assist|nid=11437|title=Case-Shiller nominal|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=186]

Real prices
[img_assist|nid=11438|title=Case-Shiller real|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=180]

[4plexowner]

“The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line.”

Happened to come across this info – http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/house-prices-long-tail.html

Looks to me like real prices dropped for 7 full years (ie, peak to bottom) and nominal prices (for those of you who enjoy mental masturbation) dropped for 5+ years

Click on the charts for larger images

Nominal prices
[img_assist|nid=11437|title=Case-Shiller nominal|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=186]

Real prices
[img_assist|nid=11438|title=Case-Shiller real|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=180]

[4plexowner]

“The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line.”

Happened to come across this info – http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/house-prices-long-tail.html

Looks to me like real prices dropped for 7 full years (ie, peak to bottom) and nominal prices (for those of you who enjoy mental masturbation) dropped for 5+ years

Click on the charts for larger images

Nominal prices
[img_assist|nid=11437|title=Case-Shiller nominal|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=186]

Real prices
[img_assist|nid=11438|title=Case-Shiller real|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=180]

[4plexowner]

“The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line.”

Happened to come across this info – http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/house-prices-long-tail.html

Looks to me like real prices dropped for 7 full years (ie, peak to bottom) and nominal prices (for those of you who enjoy mental masturbation) dropped for 5+ years

Click on the charts for larger images

Nominal prices
[img_assist|nid=11437|title=Case-Shiller nominal|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=186]

Real prices
[img_assist|nid=11438|title=Case-Shiller real|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=180]

[4plexowner]

“The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line.”

Happened to come across this info – http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/house-prices-long-tail.html

Looks to me like real prices dropped for 7 full years (ie, peak to bottom) and nominal prices (for those of you who enjoy mental masturbation) dropped for 5+ years

Click on the charts for larger images

Nominal prices
[img_assist|nid=11437|title=Case-Shiller nominal|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=186]

Real prices
[img_assist|nid=11438|title=Case-Shiller real|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=180]

[Navydoc]

Well, we closed on 6/30, and now all my crap is on a truck on its way to Gaithersburg MD. Did I rationalize? I don’t think so. I can’t even find a rental close to my new house for anything near to what my mortgage payment is. I also won’t have a guy in a little beat-up yellow pickup with a clipboard in front of my house scheduling the trustee sale (this happened 10 days prior to our move, I asked the guy how much time we had and he couldn’t tell me, but he said we still had some time).

Renting was very good to me, and it allowed me to save the nice chunk of change that I could use as a down payment. But renting is not without its problems. While living in LA we had to move twice, once after my first year, and I had to do that one myself. I cannot tell you how stressful that was for my family. I also feel a little better about this money when the inevitable inflation finally hits. What’s the difference if the money is lost due to depreciation of the house, or if its spending power is decreased through inflation? At least now my housing costs are fixed at a price I can very comfortably afford. When inflation comes I’ll be smelling like a rose. If the money was in a CD or other safe investment I would lose by both lost spending power, and having to pay increasing housing costs.

I am now very well situated to ride out anything that comes economically. My job is completely safe. Even if the Navy dumps me, I could find a new job in about 5 minutes. I don’t see procreation dropping off any time soon, and women keep having babies later and later in life, which keeps the high-risk OBs quite busy.

I hope I can keep my PIGG status on the East coast.

[Navydoc]

Well, we closed on 6/30, and now all my crap is on a truck on its way to Gaithersburg MD. Did I rationalize? I don’t think so. I can’t even find a rental close to my new house for anything near to what my mortgage payment is. I also won’t have a guy in a little beat-up yellow pickup with a clipboard in front of my house scheduling the trustee sale (this happened 10 days prior to our move, I asked the guy how much time we had and he couldn’t tell me, but he said we still had some time).

Renting was very good to me, and it allowed me to save the nice chunk of change that I could use as a down payment. But renting is not without its problems. While living in LA we had to move twice, once after my first year, and I had to do that one myself. I cannot tell you how stressful that was for my family. I also feel a little better about this money when the inevitable inflation finally hits. What’s the difference if the money is lost due to depreciation of the house, or if its spending power is decreased through inflation? At least now my housing costs are fixed at a price I can very comfortably afford. When inflation comes I’ll be smelling like a rose. If the money was in a CD or other safe investment I would lose by both lost spending power, and having to pay increasing housing costs.

I am now very well situated to ride out anything that comes economically. My job is completely safe. Even if the Navy dumps me, I could find a new job in about 5 minutes. I don’t see procreation dropping off any time soon, and women keep having babies later and later in life, which keeps the high-risk OBs quite busy.

I hope I can keep my PIGG status on the East coast.

[Navydoc]

Well, we closed on 6/30, and now all my crap is on a truck on its way to Gaithersburg MD. Did I rationalize? I don’t think so. I can’t even find a rental close to my new house for anything near to what my mortgage payment is. I also won’t have a guy in a little beat-up yellow pickup with a clipboard in front of my house scheduling the trustee sale (this happened 10 days prior to our move, I asked the guy how much time we had and he couldn’t tell me, but he said we still had some time).

Renting was very good to me, and it allowed me to save the nice chunk of change that I could use as a down payment. But renting is not without its problems. While living in LA we had to move twice, once after my first year, and I had to do that one myself. I cannot tell you how stressful that was for my family. I also feel a little better about this money when the inevitable inflation finally hits. What’s the difference if the money is lost due to depreciation of the house, or if its spending power is decreased through inflation? At least now my housing costs are fixed at a price I can very comfortably afford. When inflation comes I’ll be smelling like a rose. If the money was in a CD or other safe investment I would lose by both lost spending power, and having to pay increasing housing costs.

I am now very well situated to ride out anything that comes economically. My job is completely safe. Even if the Navy dumps me, I could find a new job in about 5 minutes. I don’t see procreation dropping off any time soon, and women keep having babies later and later in life, which keeps the high-risk OBs quite busy.

I hope I can keep my PIGG status on the East coast.

[Navydoc]

Well, we closed on 6/30, and now all my crap is on a truck on its way to Gaithersburg MD. Did I rationalize? I don’t think so. I can’t even find a rental close to my new house for anything near to what my mortgage payment is. I also won’t have a guy in a little beat-up yellow pickup with a clipboard in front of my house scheduling the trustee sale (this happened 10 days prior to our move, I asked the guy how much time we had and he couldn’t tell me, but he said we still had some time).

Renting was very good to me, and it allowed me to save the nice chunk of change that I could use as a down payment. But renting is not without its problems. While living in LA we had to move twice, once after my first year, and I had to do that one myself. I cannot tell you how stressful that was for my family. I also feel a little better about this money when the inevitable inflation finally hits. What’s the difference if the money is lost due to depreciation of the house, or if its spending power is decreased through inflation? At least now my housing costs are fixed at a price I can very comfortably afford. When inflation comes I’ll be smelling like a rose. If the money was in a CD or other safe investment I would lose by both lost spending power, and having to pay increasing housing costs.

I am now very well situated to ride out anything that comes economically. My job is completely safe. Even if the Navy dumps me, I could find a new job in about 5 minutes. I don’t see procreation dropping off any time soon, and women keep having babies later and later in life, which keeps the high-risk OBs quite busy.

I hope I can keep my PIGG status on the East coast.

[Author]

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