[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic]Need a new car for a much longer commute. Just spent 3k for smog repairs on a 10 year old Honda. Want to keep that as a 2nd car as I don’t have faith in it anymore.

Not under consideration:

Tesla: fuck Elon musk
Foreign nightmares: bmw, or anything the dealer wants 400 for an oil change
Pickup trucks
Hummer

Tried to buy a leaf, but can’t find anything less than 3k over sticker.

But maybe now is the contrarian time to buy a gas car, with a move to electric?

Lexus SUV?
Hyundai Tucson?
Toyota Highlander?

I hate being gouged due to low supply . I also feel maybe I need a big safe car to commute a lot.

Advice?[/quote]

toyota/lexus because of fit/finish/reliability

hybrid so it won’t waste gas not really going anywhere very fast in stop/go rush hour traffic jams (or in an urban area)

personally would go for a sedan over a higher stance crossover/SUV which is less fuel efficient

if you are spending lots of time in a vehicle, I’d opt of luxury touches to be “comfortable” (hence less stressed)

so given the above leads me to suggest,…

https://www.lexus.com/models/ES-hybrid

[phaster]

[quote=The-Shoveler]With all this Nuke talk lately (unlikely to happen I know).
But I was thinking what if.

I am thinking Uruguay, probably not too many ICBM’s pointed at Uruguay.

Thoughts?[/quote]

[quote=svelte]I think the further south you go in South America the better you’ll be.

When I discovered that, it kicked off a mini-fascination with South American and I spent lots of time researching the Beagle Channel and the towns that line it like Ushuaia.[/quote]

looking at the physics if there was a nuclear exchange in Ukraine, Russia, or in any of the NATO member countries,… the very Southern tip of South America would receive the least amount of nuclear fall out because it is geographically the furthest away from any of the potential conflict zones

also consider if there were a nuclear exchange, then one will also have to consider that global supply chains will pretty much cease to exist,… so the question becomes what happens to the food supply if one moves way down south,… point being the tip of South America is pretty rocky and cool so not much stuff can grow in the region, sure there is fishing for a food source (but in that part of the world the seas get pretty rough because of open oceans)

a related food source “need” problem anywhere there is a human settlement, there is also going to be a “need” for a clean source of water

thought I’d mention the issue of water because not too long ago I designed a solar distiller because I offered to build/donate one to a local school so the kids can actually learn something useful and related to the topic of man made climate change

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXvaMr6zbKekrcyBiPQnPMVMdcBZ4nrm/view?usp=sharing

[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic]it is quite remarkable to me how a switch can flip and what seemed impossible to me, even when I had gone vegetarian (become a vegan? you gotta be kidding; pizza!); and then suddenly, it is absolutely clear and easy.[/quote]

the inconvenient truth is,… too few people are taught in school or are able to learn on their on there own that there are consequence to the personal choices we make (such as the food we consume)

there was NYT article that caught my eye about the state of the educational system,…

[quote]
What Do Middle Schools Teach About Climate Change? Not Much.

…A decade ago, 26 states and several groups representing teachers and scientists unveiled the Next Generation Science Standards. Since then 45 states and the District of Columbia have adopted the standards or similar ones.

But at the middle school level, even the Next Generation standards include only one standard out of about 60 that explicitly mentions climate change.

…A curriculum doesn’t exist until it enters the classroom. And since so many of the middle school Next Generation Science Standards have connections to climate change but don’t explicitly mention them, it can be a major opportunity for teachers.

But researchers have found that many teachers received little climate education themselves.

…According to teachers, one of the main challenges is a lack of good supplemental materials.

…it is unsurprising that teachers turn to online materials. But the information they find there may be outdated, inaccurate or simply not suitable for children. The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network, an organization that provides free climate education materials, found that only 700 of the 30,000 free online materials they reviewed were accurate and suitable for use in schools.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/climate/middle-school-education-climate-change.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/podcasts/climate-education-bob-dylan.html

[/quote]

the educational system needs to do away w/ woke influence,… I say this because seems too much emphasis is placed on is placed on idiotic stuff like gender pronouns at the expense of teaching the basic idea of being able to differentiate a “want” vs a “need”

if more people were able to differentiate a “want” vs a “need” then more people would switch and consume less animal protein

[phaster]

[quote=michaelm]These guys are all talking about how to best shield any earnings from tax gains. Once you figure out which account to place what’s currently cash, the next step is what to invest it in.[/quote]

powerball ticket?!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/11/02/powerball-jackpot-winning-numbers-drawn/8252852001/

[phaster]

[quote=carlsbadworker]I think this was gzz’s point a while ago. What worries me that it does not factor in the new “cold-war” which means globalization as we knew it has ended.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/opinion/interest-rates-inflation.html

Krugman noted that rates drifted towards zero over the course of the three decades leading up to the pandemic, but that didn’t result in serious inflation.

He suggested the “natural rate of interest” may have dropped due to lower investment demand, reflecting tepid growth in the US workforce and a dearth of innovations since the 1990s. Those trends potentially weighed on investment in homes, appliances, office space, and new equipment, he said.

Meanwhile, Krugman argued that inflation only spiked during the pandemic because government aid shored up consumers’ purchasing power. Meanwhile, lockdowns and supply-chain disruptions curtailed the economy’s productive capacity, pushing up prices.[/quote]

Krugman is an idiot because he does not consider the role of demographics,… basically because of the population curve (i.e. the number of baby-boomers, the number of gen-x, the number of millennials, etc.) it is possible to somewhat predict trends such as interest rates

said another way looking at global demographics, we can expect much higher interest rates not on here in the USA, but also around the world (which is going to cause lots of interesting economic responses)

FWIW a good tome on the topic of demographics and how it will affect an economy is, “the end of the world is just the beginning” by Peter Zeihan

https://books.apple.com/us/audiobook/the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning/id1590602504

[phaster]

FWIW,… some news about the drought that is having dramatic effects in other regions of the USA

[quote]
Traffic jams and stuck barges are clogging up a critical artery of the U.S. economy, as a prolonged drought pushes the Mississippi River’s water levels to near-record lows.

Around 500 million tons of supplies are ferried along the Mississippi River every year with trade value worth $130 billion, according to the Port of New Orleans, mainly agricultural products, like corn and soybeans, along with fuel products. The Mississippi River Basin produces more than 90% of U.S. agricultural exports, according to the National Park Service, and nearly 80% of the world’s grain exports.

But all that is coming to a standstill amid historic drought conditions that are making the river untraversable for most shipping barges. River levels are now at their lowest level in a decade after historically low rainfall in recent months, becoming the latest supply-chain snag to hit the U.S.

“America is going to shut down if we shut down,” Mike Ellis, CEO of American Commercial Barge Line in Indiana, told the Wall Street Journal this week.

River traffic jams

The low water levels have clogged up entire sections of the Mississippi River in recent weeks, wreaking havoc on the local economy.

At least 2,000 barges were backed up along the river last week, Bloomberg reported, citing data from the U.S. Coast Guard. Also last week, the Coast Guard warned that at least eight heavy barges had become “grounded” in particularly shallow parts of the river.

With fewer barges able to navigate the river and longer wait times, prices are starting to go up.

“It’s definitely having an impact on the local economy, because the commercial use of this river has almost completely stopped,” George Flaggs, mayor of Vicksburg, Miss., told local news channel WAPT earlier this week, adding that the river around Vicksburg is the lowest he’s seen it in nearly 70 years.

“This will actually affect us in a very negative way. We have to have less cargo on our barges and less tonnage moving. It affects our revenues,” Austin Golding, president of Golding Barge Line, told WAPT.

It’s the worst possible time for a drought in the Mississippi, as early fall is typically when grain is harvested in the Mississippi Basin and sent down the river. Soybeans are the most commonly shipped commodity on the river, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, but the low water levels are throwing the supply chain into chaos.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/america-going-shut-down-shut-204307435.html
[/quote]

bottom line,… “drought” is happening all over and people (in general) are not aware of the the disaster (of biblical proportions) that actually is a self inflected wound (caused by humanity)

https://www.piggington.com/waking_veganism_cholesterol#comment-299912

[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic]beautiful blue dot. the video is awesome. I’m of the opinion lately that we are incapable of changing and deserve to just die out.in fact im certain of it.[/quote]

sigh,… the unfortunate fact of the matter is too many on both sides of the political spectrum worship at the same alter (of money and material goods)

https://www.christianpost.com/news/trump-most-stunning-example-success-prosperity-gospel.html

Trump and the Prosperity Gospel

simply said people in general don’t think about or want to acknowledge the fact that there is a price humanity (as a whole) is going to pay because of worshiping material goods

[quote]
…according to a new study, if you want to know what’s really driving the impact on the planet, you need to look past the obvious primary factors taking a toll on the environment – like industry and agriculture – and instead realise whose needs those things are servicing.

From that perspective, researchers say household consumers are by far the biggest drain on the planet, which makes for a very different picture to purely nation-focused analyses of environmental impact. In other words, before we start blaming whole countries for the state of the planet, we should probably be looking at our own habits and demands.

http://www.sciencealert.com/consumers-have-a-bigger-impact-on-the-environment-than-anything-else-study-finds
[/quote]

[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic]
Radical change is possible in a single moment of awakening.[/quote]

let’s hope more people wake up soon AND fully realize the fact that we live on a blue dot w/ finite resources

[phaster]

[quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Just read an article that over 30% of employment in St George is in construction. What’s that gonna look like next year EP?[/quote]

shees, sdr, you just won’t leave this thread die a natural death.
I guess you are saying the higher interest rates will choke off the St. George economy because we are so dependent on construction jobs.
For starters, people and employers are still flocking to St. George. You could double mortgage rates and a given house will still cost less per month than in any big CA city. Plug in utility rates, property taxes, cost of living, etc. and it’s no contest. Our unemployment rate is 2.1%.
There is no way construction jobs are over 30%. Your source, please.
A little googling revealed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that the category of “mining, logging, and construction” constituted 12.7% of the St. George civilian work force.[/quote]

just a hunch,… seems to me the quickest way to have a thread ignored is to point out subject matter few want to admit to or face head on

for example WRT the St. George area (like the rest of the South Western USA) there is the issue of drought

[quote]
Tourism is sucking Utah dry. Now it faces a choice – growth or survival?

…Just beyond [Zion] park, the once-sleepy city of St George is rapidly expanding. Tucked into one of the hottest and driest cornersof south-west Utah, the gateway community is the fastest growing city in the US. Tourism has driven new residential growth and businesses in an area that could soon see water shortages – and it’s only expected to get worse.

Though there have been recent moves to try to curb consumption, Utah already has the highest per-capita water usage in the country. In Washington county – home to Zion and St George – usage was an alarming 285 gallons a person a day in 2020, more than double what those in Las Vegas, just hours to the south, use.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/11/tourism-utah-drought-zion-economy
[/quote]

[quote]
In America’s fastest-growing metro, a rising fear water will run out

…St. George and surrounding Washington County, two hours northeast of Las Vegas in Utah’s hottest and driest corner, was once known mostly as the gateway to Zion National Park. Now its stunning landscape is drawing droves of retirees and remote workers from northern Utah and beyond. The county’s population of about 180,000 is expected to more than double by 2050 — even though its single water source, the Virgin River basin, is dwindling as the West remains locked in the worst drought in 1,200 years.

…The area’s growth has been dizzying, St. George Mayor Michele Randall said. She expected the city, established in the 1860s by Mormon pioneers deployed by Brigham Young on a failed mission to grow cotton, to calm when covid hit. Instead, it swelled with pandemic-era pilgrims who decided to stay.

The city is now seeking funding for dozens of additional police officers and firefighters. But Randall said it is water that “keeps me up at night.” Utah has long pushed for a 140-mile pipeline from Lake Powell, the massive Colorado River reservoir, to pump water to the St. George region. But given the lake’s plummeting water, Randall said she has no hope for a pipeline in her lifetime. Water saving and storage must be the plan, she said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/15/st-george-utah-water-crisis/
[/quote]

[phaster]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO time for geo engineering,

I have long advocated for it, even if USA were to completely go green how do you get the rest of the world on board when 80% of the world is living hand to mouth. So IMO geo engineering is only real option.[/quote]

time for geo engineering?!

fact is from 1850 to 2019, human activity has released 2,400 gigatons of CO2,… point being humanity is already “geo engineering”

[quote=Roger Revelle (1957) UCSD “founder”]
“Thus human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years. This experiment, if adequately documented, may yield a far-reaching insight into the processes determining weather and climate. It therefore becomes of prime importance to attempt to determine the way in which carbon dioxide is partitioned between the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere and the lithosphere.”

[/quote]

The Keeling Curve

[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=flyer]You definitely make some very good points, and as a person with degrees from MIT, I definitely could have made other career choices, but flying and real estate investment were in my blood, so, I went with those. Retired early from American Airlines during the pandemic, but will continue in real estate investment until we pass everything along to our kids

Knowing what I know now, my choices would have likely been different wrt aviation. Other than continuing to fly, in both our professional and personal lives, we’ve gone about as green as you can go, but that’s still just a drop in the bucket. Every person and every industry will need to be on board in order to save our planet, and profound changes will be required from each. Only time will tell if our efforts were successful.[/quote]

Unless each person gives up meat, cars, buying shit and having kids, we are screwed, which means we are screwed. I hate cars and I still need to use one next week.

Fuck it, let’s just get on with it and all go to heaven, where the supplies are plentiful. The suckers after us can deal with it.
[/quote]

since you mentioned “heaven” AND given this is a real estate forum FYI as I see things the parable of the vineyard owner,… is a theological way to view the topic of “climate change and drought” mismanagement

[quote]

…a landowner set forth a vineyard with great care and lavish attention

he then entrusted it to tenant farmers

at harvest time, he sought his share of the produce

yet instead of giving the owner what was due him, the tenant farmers refused, ridiculing, beating, and even killing the servants sent to collect his share

they end by killing the owner’s own son

when jesus asks his audience what they thought the owner would do in response, they replied that he would put the men to a wretched death and lease his vineyard to other tenants who would give him the produce at the proper time

obviously, they did not realize that in the parable the landlord was actually describing them,… and that such a judgment would be upon them unless they repented

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+21%3A33-46&version=NCB
[/quote]

PS FWIW here is the mainstream view about environmental stewardship (AND is the reason why we are where we are,…)

[quote]
Californians Explain Why They Oppose Drought Restrictions

Perry Peterson (Construction Worker)

“For reasons I cannot possibly understand, my self-worth is extremely tied up in how well-maintained my lawn appears.”

Jose Harper (Financial Advisor)

“Sacrificing my own petty comforts for the survival of the planet is anti-American.”

https://www.theonion.com/californians-explain-why-they-oppose-drought-restrictio-1849480008

[/quote]

[phaster]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Uncertain times to be sure.

IMO TPTB can’t seem to make up their minds, do they want to reduce inflation or increase it?

Now they want $22 hour min wage for fast food (45K/year for high school kids LOL not bad money to start).

Not sure maybe part of some plan I can’t figure it out or maybe TPTB can’t seem to stick to a theme LOL.[/quote]

TPTB (i.e. politicians and their partisan supporters, lobbyist, etc.) are basically people (i.e. “idiots”) who just want their “fair share” of the economic pie

truth is, times are not all that uncertain,…simple fact of the matter is global organized society is going to face a harsh population contraction because DEMANDS > SUPPLY (andl this fact is something people do not want to acknowledge)

FYI on the natural resources side there was a study started back in the 1970s which forecast “the limits to growth” (so I’d argue the strategic “big picture” trends were actually looked AND pretty well understood decades ago)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

as far as rising interests rates, this uptick also is somewhat expected if one looks to demographics,… again this isn’t anything new because understanding what happens to a society can be roughly forecast by the demographic distribution (AND this concept is something I picked up as an undergrad)

FWIW Peter Zeihan is a geo-political analyst and he looks at the world and gives thought provoking presentations looking at issues from a demographic distribution POV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGvsHqvtJfA

PS a $22 min wage proposed by woke politicians for essentially talentless workers shouldn’t be all that surprising given the idea they are spending other people money in order to try and buy political good will (i.e. “votes”),… what I’m trying to point out is politicians on both sides of the political spectrum spend government money in an effort to buy support from the public at large, for example TRUMP and his CARES ACT letter/checks

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-stimulus-check-letter-130-million-americans/

[phaster]

[quote=flyer]
The airlines are definitely polluters, but, like most, we still fly, and hope to see the new supersonics around 2030, which “may” be carbon neutral. Used to fly on the Concorde, and, although not climate friendly, definitely fantastic experiences. American Airlines, from which I retired early in my 50’s a couple of years ago, offered great pilot retirement packages during the pandemic, and have now just ordered 20 supersonics this week.

Will new N.C.-made supersonic jets really be carbon-neutral? It depends, experts say

[/quote]

IMHO new supersonic transports around 2030 won’t happen AND the technical reason being before an airframe can be built, one needs a suitable power plant from a manufacturer such as GE, rolls-royce or pratt & whitney

long story short none of these companies is going to bet the farm on developing a suitable power plant for a supersonic transport so dreams of mach 1+ travel,… is just more wishful thinking

sure flying is fun but ever stop and realize that the majority of humanity has never traveled in an airplane???

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/how-much-worlds-population-has-flown-airplane-180957719/

actually started flying myself (as a pilot) while still in high school, and have always been interested in flying (starting off as a toddler) because basically one of my uncles had an aircraft charter service (and the family lived on an airfield)

then there is the fact my dad and his friends were aero space engineers,… so I grew up listening to stories of how the j58 was tested to destruction in a pratt & whitney test cell so “operational” data could be obtained

FYI the j58 was used on something people might have heard of,… the YF12 and its more famous relative the SR71 “blackbird”

anyway years ago had an epiphany that that my flying hobby is pretty environmentally destructive when I was in a yak 52 and just for shits and giggle did a quick chemical combustion calculation

basically the yak @ takeoff power settings burns 35 GPH,… so since burning one gal of gasoline releases about 20 lbs of CO2,… just flying round the pattern for touch & go’s releases large amounts of CO2 (that will stay in the atmosphere for upwards of a thousand years “trapping infrared” radiation)

bottom line,… because of humanity releasing thousands of gigatons of CO2 which traps “infrared” radiation,… this is causing,…

[quote=flyer]
Yes, nothing and no one lasts forever. We can also add this scenario to our possible apocalyptic future, but there is still some hope:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/weather/california-megaflood-study/index.html
[/quote]

as a pilot calculating fuel burn becomes second nature because if an aircraft runs out of gas, it no longer is able to stay aloft

same idea should be applied to “water”

in other words if we burn up our supply of water,… organized society “crashes”

https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/water-wars/arizona-farmers-struggle-to-find-solutions-after-unprecedented-colorado-river-water-cuts/75-d677a202-8687-480c-94b4-63784044002f

PS a megaflood (in california) due to atmospheric rivers causing all kinds of damage is just another example of people in general not considering (or preparing for) systemic failures,… said another way, as a pilot you have trained to deal w/ various emergencies,… point being people have not trained to deal w/ climatic emergencies so at some point “shit will hit the fan” and create an avoidable catastrophe

[phaster]

[quote=flyer]The federal government is now stepping in to regulate water cuts. For now, only AZ and NV are effected, but CA may also eventually be on the chopping block.

I know San Diego is in a better position than most areas of the state, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out for us, locally.

https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/08/colorado-river-water-california/
[/quote]

actually what most do not realize is the global magnitude of the “drought” problem,…

CHINA

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-takes-action-alleviate-drought-record-heatwave-continues-2022-08-17/

https://apnews.com/article/china-asia-droughts-chongqing-a6b831a3e718f5fb5f46ee5f63cf331d

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-16/china-joins-europe-in-facing-threats-from-worsening-drought

INDIA

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/india-monsoon-rainfall-deficit-uttar-pradesh-jharkhand-bihar-farmers-drought-8087529/

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/drought-hit-bihar-gets-free-seeds/cid/1880771

EUROPE

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2022/08/photos-europe-drought/671143/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2333938-europes-extreme-drought-is-exacerbating-food-and-energy-crises/

LATINA AMERICA

Latin America and the Caribbean 2021: ‘mega-drought, extreme rainfall, heatwaves, glacier melt’

AFRICA

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/environment/1660485429-africa-s-drought-sees-the-masai-way-of-life-evaporate

basically “drought” is happening on a global scale and sad fact of the matter is looking at the trends being reported in the “news” the odds are billions of people will feel the adverse knock on effects of water resource mismanagement

the question I wonder about is how long will the public at large remain blind to the scientific fact(s)

yeah I know there is the expression “ignorance is bliss,…” BUT as I see things, this only compounds the overall suffering

[phaster]

[quote=evolusd]Given the drop in water level at Lake Mead, started reading a bit and came across this:

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/spring-2019/a-map-of-the-future-of-water

Wondering if it might be smart to buy some land in one of those blue areas with groundwater well potential to promote water security for my family if the current trend in So Cal continues to accelerate. The northwest has always been interesting to me as a mountain biker and lover of forests.[/quote]

real estate in the northwest could be an interesting play (if you are actually serious about moving there),… BUT as I read the tea leaves San Diego real estate “price appreciation” will still out perform many other global regions (including the USA market,… even given the thus far unresolved “political” drought issue in the SW USA)

https://www.piggington.com/east_county_sd_v_st_george_gzz’s_budget_mcmansion_lifestyle?page=1#comment-299601

the reason I think the SD area is going to be a safer long term “bet” even w/ $hit for brains political leadership like Gavin Newsom

[quote]
In his time at the California State Water Resources Control Board, Max Gomberg has witnessed the state grapple with two devastating droughts and the accelerating effects of climate change.

Now, after 10 years of recommending strategies for making California more water resilient, the board’s climate and conservation manager is calling it quits. The reason: He no longer believes Gov. Gavin Newsom and his administration are willing to pursue the sorts of transformational changes necessary in an age of growing aridification.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-07-28/california-drought-official-blasts-newsom-administration
[/quote]

…is because of the various “local” military bases that protect the US southern border (on the coast) along w/ the higher level education university schools (in particular UCSD)

Bottom line given climate change, the severe drought in the SW region AND high global debt levels

is going to all combine and result in de-globalization,… so interior SW cities in the USA like “lost wages” and phoenix are going to decline as time goes forward

https://www.piggington.com/california_real_estate_international_store_value

PS sadly one other environmental “water” issue is,…

[quote]
Rainwater everywhere on the planet is unsafe to drink due to levels of toxic chemicals known as PFAS that exceed the latest guidelines, according to a new study by Stockholm University scientists.

Commonly known as ‘forever chemicals’ because they disintegrate extremely slowly, PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) were initially found in packaging, shampoo or makeup but have spread to our entire environment, including water and air.

“There is nowhere on Earth where the rain would be safe to drink, according to the measurements that we have taken,” Ian Cousins, a professor at the university and the lead author of the study published in Environmental Science and Technology

https://phys.org/news/2022-08-rainwater-unsafe-due-chemicals.html
[/quote]

[Author]

Posts