[phaster]

[quote=Otay OG]Out of curiousity, I checked recent sells in 92114 and came across a property, which is in the VP zip code. I think it was good ‘diamond in the rough’ purchase for 1.36 acres, the listing agent gave an excellent description. This place is less than a mile to the freeway or trolley. There’s only one traffic signal and a ramp signal for freeway access.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6300-Scimitar-Dr_San-Diego_CA_92114_M17073-35720

Also, there are plenty of skilled laborers and domestics near these areas. May not sound good to the nimby folks, but good for flippers or rental investors. May be a good place to retire vs leaving SD for lower cost cities…[/quote]

noticed this post, so drove by the place after reading the “copy” in the listing,…

[quote]

Property Overview – This charming ranch home sits at the top of its own hill in Rosemont Heights and boasts 180 degree blue-water views, including the Coronado Islands, the Strand, Coronado, and even Downtown and Mexico!

The million dollar views are unbelievable, so come see this amazing property. It is truly an opportunity to own your own Oasis in the City!

[/quote]

yup, the place does have amazing views! BUT as you mentioned NIMBY leaning folks wouldn’t be able to ignore the lack of various neighborhood infrastructure,… (i.e. local schools not “competitive” AND/OR stuff like no easy walking to “hipster” places to hang out, etc.)

[phaster]

[quote=njtosd]It helps to remind yourself that the world, in many ways, is improving …

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/the-enlightenment-is-working-1518191343
[/quote]

DISCLAIMER:

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly on prof piggington forums, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.

…just sayin’

[phaster]

[quote=harvey]
…Decades ago the NRA was a gun safety organization for hunters. Over time they have morphed into a gun manufacturing lobby that has tremendous influence over many in congress, and the white house.

For a long time the NRA agenda has been to sell guns. Now it seems the NRA message is to encourage Americans to use guns against dissenting opinion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtGOQFf9VCE

[/quote]

ever consider what’s happening is a massive psy-op, where various interests align?

[quote]
Remington’s Bankruptcy May Be the Tip of the Iceberg

Firearms companies face declining sales, falling stock prices and tremendous debt. Gunmaker American Outdoor Brands Corp., formerly known as Smith & Wesson, has seen its stock plummet by almost half from 2017. On Monday, Remington Outdoor Co., an iconic, 200-year-old American firearms manufacturer, announced it’s planning to file for bankruptcy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/remington-s-bankruptcy-may-be-the-tip-of-the-iceberg
[/quote]

in other words, its just geo-political **cough** (“FSB” the initials might have changed from KGB, but its the same mindset/players) “mind games” that corporate gun companies need to boost sales

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKojZcWfnNw

IMHO its a variation of “an economic hit man” theme,…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVsB07CcSNw

or think of it this way, the NRA partisan B$ is no different than CA Renter or BearishGurl partisan actions/mindset toward public pensions,…

http://www.piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy

FWIW on friday was invited to lunch (figured I did have to grab a bite to eat and the food was free) so I went,… turns out it was a get to know a candidate for the 49th (to get feed back, etc.)

http://www.sarajacobsforca.com

anyway one topic discussed is external political influence (where machines don’t have to hacked because the voters/media minds have been hacked long before the actual election day)

PS I don’t live in the 49th district so don’t have a dog in that political fight so to speak,… having said that did find it refreshing that she mentioned that USA has “no cyber doctrine” and that she is very, vary, vary interested in the topic (given qualcomm “tech” background, its actually not too surprising)

along those lines one thing I brought up in a discussion is what happens if a nation-state were to hack SWIFT

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050515/how-swift-system-works.asp

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-heist-warning/swift-warns-banks-on-cyber-heists-as-hack-sophistication-grows-idUSKBN1DT012

sadly if it were to happen, sara mentioned the US political establishment would be clueless

[phaster]

[quote=bewildering]$850/month HOA for that La Jolla house 7656 Caminito Coromandel. Although, as I work at UCSD I would love that location. I wonder what the $850/month is used for?[/quote]

“roads” in the development devoid of pot-holes?

[phaster]

[quote=bewildering][quote=cvmom]Brick is not good in earthquakes, doesn’t flex.[/quote]

Yep. Brick is the worst construction material in earthquake-prone areas.

“California learned the dangers of brick construction when a major earthquake struck Long Beach in 1933, crumbling schools, churches and shops. Some 120 people died. These so-called unreinforced masonry buildings, or URMs, are vulnerable because the mortar essentially crumbles apart during shaking, bringing down the roof and walls.”

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-earthquake-safety-brick-buildings-inland-empire-20180209-htmlstory.html

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/06/11/green.building.material/index.html

[/quote]

FWIW given climate change and hence a longer wild fire season,… one advantage of brick is its “fireproof” WRT a flexible wooden structure

http://www.energy-design-tools.aud.ucla.edu/FIRES.html

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/06/11/green.building.material/index.html

[phaster]

[quote=moneymaker]Ok so maybe not a favorite topic right now.[/quote]

FWIW IMHO we are in a lull before the “perfect” storm given an article/study geared toward bond investors which mentioned there are some big ticket items kept off balance sheet

[quote]
“…Rising pension costs mean the percentage of general fund dollars cities pay to the California Public Employees’ Retirement System will have doubled by fiscal year 2024-25, according to the Retirement System Sustainability Study the league released Thursday.

…The study,… doesn’t include data on retiree healthcare benefits, often called other post-employment benefits, or OPEB…”

http://www.bondbuyer.com/news/how-a-growing-pension-burden-will-press-california-city-budgets

http://www.cacities.org/2018PensionSurvey
[/quote]

My own take on the article/study is there is nothing to prevent more self inflected damage,… or said another way, major problem(s) are caused by politicians and the people that run the bureaucratic system because they are unable to think critically about real world problems (like basic finance)

http://www.TinyURL.com/FinanciallyLiterate

For example in San Diego for three decades plus, the public pension portfolio custodians (i.e. politicians) have allowed giving away (off balance sheet) a 13th pension payment

http://www.TinyURL.com/SanDiegoSpikingPension

Compounding this basic middle school math “error” is public employ leadership (i.e. public pension recipients) who see no problem w/ not requiring fully funding the portfolio (basically this seems akin to only paying a “minimum credit card payment” but happens on a SUPER SIZED scale!!!)

http://www.TinyURL.com/PensionRebuttal

So is it no wonder the “pension debt grows” AND given the “California rule” which implies the tax payers are the designated financial backstop for this whole mess (w/ serious knock on effects)

http://www.TinyURL.com/DifferentDay

Bottom line, this lull before the economic storm is the time one should prepare for TSHTF!!!

[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic]
130k seems so low.

Will be nice when trump dies. Big street parties.

How long before after trumps death does he gets rehabilitated , like Nixon? Will prolly be revered like Reagan in 2060. If there’s still a usa[/quote]

trump’s political reign, and legacy,… akin to the emperor caligula?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_uL1bZii6k

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/jun/01/donald-trump-has-fascinating-parallels-with-caligula-says-historian

[phaster]

[quote=njtosd]To me it

seems as though there hasn’t been any genuine effort to economically address the situation.

The Philadelphia Housing Authority built 88 units for $35 million, or $400,000 per unit.

On the other hand, these 2 bed/ 2 bath units are being sold commercially in Philadelphia (presumably at a profit) for a little over $200,000
[/quote]

that’s my own take on the issue,…

looking at the local homeless issue, seems last weeks media show (like the Philadelphia Housing Authority news report to have built 88 units), is just that,… “a photo-opt” to appease those asking elected officials to have bureaucracy do something about a visible symptom

[quote]
Mayor Kevin Faulconer says San Diego has taken the wrong approach on homelessness and needs to change.

The question is, can he?

In his annual State of the City address Thursday, Faulconer took ownership of the homeless crisis, acknowledged attempted solutions haven’t worked and promised a more forceful effort to resolve it.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-smolens-faulconer-20180112-story.html
[/quote]

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
…because he represents the Republican Party and the country, he will always have defenders.

Out of self preservation, our institutions, our country do not want a disgraced president so we will protect Trump.

I’ve also learned that if you live in a nice place and have nice things, it’s perfectly normal and American to consider other places shitholes. That’s how a “normal” guy talks and feels.[/quote]

#SADLY the concept of politically protecting “those of our own kind” is a part of popular political lore,… or simply stated

[quote]
He [Trump] may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch

http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/30107.html
[/quote]

as to the “shithole” perspective,… FWIW on occasion I find myself in some pretty posh places that are exclusive and require one to make it past staff that function as riff raff filter,… anyway from what I’ve seen first hand, ultra fancy surroundings w/ staff in place to filter out those that don’t belong, doesen’t mean there won’t be some really dumb $hit heads present,…just sayin

anyway anyone else take some timeout for “fire and fury”

I was intrigued enough to read the book,… and my own take on the topic is there is nothing really new (just a variation of old themes)

[quote]
…First, most adults have learned to sit still. But mentally, Trump is still a 7-year-old boy who is bouncing around the classroom. Trump’s answers in these interviews are not very long — 200 words at the high end — but he will typically flit through four or five topics before ending up with how unfair the press is to him.

His inability to focus his attention makes it hard for him to learn and master facts. He is ill informed about his own policies and tramples his own talking points. It makes it hard to control his mouth.

…Second, most people of drinking age have achieved some accurate sense of themselves, some internal criteria to measure their own merits and demerits. But Trump seems to need perpetual outside approval to stabilize his sense of self, so he is perpetually desperate for approval, telling heroic fabulist tales about himself.

…Third, by adulthood most people can perceive how others are thinking… But Trump seems to have not yet developed a theory of mind.

[/quote]

As for the latest,…

[quote]
Lawyer paid $130k to silence adult-film star over sexual encounter with Trump: report

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/368779-trump-lawyer-arranged-130k-payment-to-adult-film-star-to-stay-quiet
[/quote]

why go to movies to watch a drama, when there is real world “news” $hit that I would not have believed if it was part of plot line in a low budget soap opera (or comedy)

[phaster]

[quote=cvmom]Neighbors have done this very well with one of those laser light projectors. It looks great and no need to climb up to the top of the tree.[/quote]

ONLY ONE LIGHT SOURCE? Yeah, I realize a laser projector has a beam splitter, but that just seems like it won’t have enough wow factor to get people to stop and take notice 😉

the tree I have is about the size of something that could used @ Rockefeller Center (which upon doing some reading, I found out has 50,000 lights)

…actually started thinking about the logistics of the overall endeavor/folly (only after my initial impulse buy)

found an online christmas tree light calculator and upon entering the approximate size, the suggestion was to use a minimum 18,000+ lights,… so the three thousand feet of LED lights I picked up on sale was just about 2/3 of the suggested minimum,… then also started thinking about the power requirements for 50,000 LED lights,… YIKES

http://www.keyt.com/lifestyle/holidays/chapala-christmas-tree-lit-up-in-downtown-santa-barbara/667955133

http://www.keyt.com/news/santa-barbara-s-county/star-pine-tree-lights-up-downtown-santa-barbara/63424271

next recalled (as a kid) the parish used luminarias as decorations durning a christmas procession

so back I went to various home depot locations gathering stuff to execute my plan B decorating idea for the tree

basically the final idea is to mount (15-20) single color led kaleidoscope christmas lights

positioned at various different levels on the tree as up/down land scape lights to sort of get the tree to be lit up like a BIG luminarias

https://www.voltlighting.com/article-landscape-lighting-techniques/p/article-lighting-techniques

(overall I was able to purchased over 80+ of the single color led kaleidoscope christmas lights in: white, red, green and blue at an average cost much, much, much lower than list price)

yeah I realize this seems kinda out there, but figure its time to upgrade from a commercialistic YET pathetic charlie brown tree!

[phaster]

I know christmas just happened OR perhaps it might be really, really, really early,… so was wondering if anyone else consider decorating a tree in their yard?

Was down at home depot, just after xmas and noticed lots of lights on SALE!!!

So on a whim bought a huge quantity, thinking it would be neat to light up a really tall tree that is in the front yard

[phaster]

[quote=harvey]
There’s a gazillion metrics that can be used to predict the market – all of them are correct sometimes and incorrect other times. But ultimately price to earnings must be reconciled. By that measure, the market is expensive.[/quote]

Yeah, the market is expensive,… but what is the alternative (since we are all in the same “metaphorical” boat)?

[quote]
Pension Funds’ Dilemma: What To Buy When Nothing Is Cheap?

…The goal of most pension funds is to pay for future benefits by earning 7% to 8% a year. After the 2008 financial crisis, many funds tried to hit those marks by lowering their holdings of bonds as interest rates dropped, and by turning to real estate, commodities, hedge funds and private-equity holdings.

These so-called alternative investments rose to 26% of holdings at about 150 of the biggest U.S. funds in 2016, according to the Public Plans database, compared with 7% more than a decade earlier.

…The biggest public pension in the U.S., known by its abbreviation Calpers, has been backing away from alternative investments as a way of reducing complexity and fees. In December, directors considered a 34% allocation to equities,…

…No matter which move Calpers made, it faced challenges. Scaling back Calpers’ equity investment would have reduced the fund’s projected 7% return at a time when the fund has just 68% of the assets needed to pay for future benefits. That would have meant higher contribution costs for local governments across California.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pension-funds-dilemma-what-to-buy-when-nothing-is-cheap-1514808000
[/quote]

FWIW IMHO the market averages are high because the average number of shares outstanding is now lower that it was 20 years ago (because of M&A and share buy backs),… then there is the simple fact that various central banks have printed lots of money in the hopes it some how will boost economic activity BUT the unintended consequence is lots of money is out there, chasing fewer shares

just sayin’ it kinda makes sense why the market “averages” are expensive (by recent historical standards)

next,… looking at the history of bucket shops,… the interest in alternative investments like bitcoin, the interest in shorting the VIX, etc. tells me as crazy as it sounds, things mostly likely will continue to surprise people (on the up side),… BUT at the end of the cycle I’d say, only the the paranoid survive (w/ a little bit of “luck” AND “skill”)

http://www.TinyURL.com/DifferentDay

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Of course. Climate change.
[/quote]

[quote]
Where’s the rain? California could suffer an unusually dry winter,…

“…The situation is even more grim in Southern California.

…It’s part of a larger weather trend for Southern California: Over the last seven years, maximum temperatures during the fall have gotten hotter and there has been less rain.”

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-rainy-season-20171225-story.html
[/quote]

Looking at the over-all system, there is an assumption tax payers, etc. are resilient (which in fact is a potential point of failure in the grand scheme of things) as implied by a moodys report,…

[quote]
Environmental Risks — Evaluating the impact of climate change on US state and local issuers

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Climate-change-is-forecast-to-heighten-US-exposure-to–PR_376056
[/quote]

[phaster]

[quote=ucodegen]
[quote=phaster]
[quote]
ON HYPERWAR
…
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-07/hyperwar
[/quote]

whats the old proverb, may you live in interesting times

the pragmatic goal for anyone w/ or w/out a tinfoil hat being,… “may you live thru interesting times”[/quote]
Can’t agree more. This is one of the things that I think banning won’t prevent. The knowledge is already out there. It might be better to think of how to defend against it. I like the link you provided. Did a read on your quote, and bookmarked the link to get back to it for a more thorough read. Here are two more links – one to the effect that putting a ban in place really won’t stop development.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/military-robots/lethal-microdrones-dystopian-futures-and-the-autonomous-weapons-debate

https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intelligence/we-should-not-ban-killer-robots

[/quote]

The rest of the article is mostly about two near future military scenarios, I just included the tech stuff that seemed applicable to topic at hand!

FWIW if you want a related scary BOT SoCal specific scenario consider the nuke waste @ san onofre being breached,…

(SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK) of a PDF was sent to me by a neighbor of sorts who has been very active trying to stop unsafe nuke power (especially after what happened in japan),… as a matter of fact, he organized a conference here in San Diego and played chauffeur to the mayor of fukushima who was here to discuss the “issue”

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B66GMOho0KtxNlowWm5RRlcwQl9CQjkyem1xNzNGa0cwY0VJ/view

as related to the OP a threat might come from a swarm of off the shelf commercial drones (or perhaps something homebuilt)

http://www.interestingprojects.com/cruisemissile/

w/ improvised frag devices that punches holes in the 5/8″ thick containment vessels, and due to its geographic location this creates chock point on a major transportation corridor,…

OR considering Murphy’s law,… in the long run the waste (in thin walled tin cans so to speak) the end result of a spent nuclear reaction which is far more dangerous than the input fuel or said another way “bad” byproducts as a result of power generation produce decay elements which are not as easily controlled as the purified uranium fuel (for a reactor),… just leaks out!!!

thus far it seems more like a real life halloween horror story WRT management of this and other stuff because as long as stupid $hit like this goes on…

https://piggington.com/commentary_why_full_funding_pensions_waste_money#comment-279052

https://piggington.com/nobel_economics#comment-279237

we are on a down ward trend!… basically as I see things the root cause/solution is money (which right now keeps the system working, but eventually as I see things it will blow things apart because there are not enough reserve$ to address issue that arise when shit happens)

[quote]
Pension Math: Public Pension Spending and Service Crowd Out in California, 2003-2030

As budgets are squeezed, what are state and local governments cutting? Core services, including higher education, social services, public assistance, welfare, recreation and libraries, health, public works, and in some cases, public safety.

https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/pension-math-public-pension-spending-and-service-crowd-out-california-2003
[/quote]

[phaster]

[quote=ucodegen]

…This scenario is not as far fetched as you may think. In many cases it is just the further miniaturization of what we already have. Maybe a little more on my background to emphasize that I am not a tinfoil hat nut…

[/quote]

interesting video presentation,… was waiting for the punch line “making the world a better place!”

perhaps adding that bit of gallows humor might have been just a bit over the top,… anyway given Moore’s law, asymmetric “autonomous-information” warfare is inevitable

[quote]
ON HYPERWAR

“…Technologies such as computer vision aided by machine-learning algorithms, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered autonomous decision making, advanced sensors, miniaturized high-powered computing capacity deployed at the ‘edge,’ high-speed networks, offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, and a host of AI-enabled techniques such as autonomous swarming and cognitive analysis of sensor data will be at the heart of this revolution … [which will minimize] human decision making in the vast majority of processes traditionally required to wage war.

…What makes this new form of warfare unique is the unparalleled speed enabled by automating decision making and the concurrency of action that become possible by leveraging artificial intelligence and machine cognition. … In military terms, hyperwar may be redefined as a type of conflict where human decision making is almost entirely absent from the observe-orient-decide-act (OODA) loop. As a consequence, the time associated with an OODA cycle will be reduced to near-instantaneous responses. The implications of these developments are many and game changing.”

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-07/hyperwar
[/quote]

whats the old proverb, may you live in interesting times

the pragmatic goal for anyone w/ or w/out a tinfoil hat being,… “may you live thru interesting times”

[Author]

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