Would you invest in an S&P500 ETF now?

[phaster]

[quote=harvey]
There’s a gazillion metrics that can be used to predict the market – all of them are correct sometimes and incorrect other times. But ultimately price to earnings must be reconciled. By that measure, the market is expensive.[/quote]

Yeah, the market is expensive,… but what is the alternative (since we are all in the same “metaphorical” boat)?

[quote]
Pension Funds’ Dilemma: What To Buy When Nothing Is Cheap?

…The goal of most pension funds is to pay for future benefits by earning 7% to 8% a year. After the 2008 financial crisis, many funds tried to hit those marks by lowering their holdings of bonds as interest rates dropped, and by turning to real estate, commodities, hedge funds and private-equity holdings.

These so-called alternative investments rose to 26% of holdings at about 150 of the biggest U.S. funds in 2016, according to the Public Plans database, compared with 7% more than a decade earlier.

…The biggest public pension in the U.S., known by its abbreviation Calpers, has been backing away from alternative investments as a way of reducing complexity and fees. In December, directors considered a 34% allocation to equities,…

…No matter which move Calpers made, it faced challenges. Scaling back Calpers’ equity investment would have reduced the fund’s projected 7% return at a time when the fund has just 68% of the assets needed to pay for future benefits. That would have meant higher contribution costs for local governments across California.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pension-funds-dilemma-what-to-buy-when-nothing-is-cheap-1514808000
[/quote]

FWIW IMHO the market averages are high because the average number of shares outstanding is now lower that it was 20 years ago (because of M&A and share buy backs),… then there is the simple fact that various central banks have printed lots of money in the hopes it some how will boost economic activity BUT the unintended consequence is lots of money is out there, chasing fewer shares

just sayin’ it kinda makes sense why the market “averages” are expensive (by recent historical standards)

next,… looking at the history of bucket shops,… the interest in alternative investments like bitcoin, the interest in shorting the VIX, etc. tells me as crazy as it sounds, things mostly likely will continue to surprise people (on the up side),… BUT at the end of the cycle I’d say, only the the paranoid survive (w/ a little bit of “luck” AND “skill”)

http://www.TinyURL.com/DifferentDay

[scaredyclassic]

used possibly iranian rugs might be low.

flea market vendors were saying sales are sluggish in jan., people holding on to money.

[Coronita]

…some say be very very scared when the perma-bears capitulate and go long in the markets….

[ocrenter]

[quote=flu]Buy bitcoin instead.

If you’re trying to get rich quick by timing the market, speculate on bitcoin. It’s so volatile that the price wildly swings by +-1 $1000 almost each day…So it’s perfect for people who try to time the market.

On the other hand, if you plan on doing a long term buy and accumulate and actually invest, drip a few hundred/thousand into an S&P500 index every month for the next 5-10 years and forget about it.[/quote]

20 something medical assistant at work was really gun-ho about bit coin, quieted down some over the last couple of weeks…

[Coronita]

[quote=ocrenter][quote=flu]Buy bitcoin instead.

If you’re trying to get rich quick by timing the market, speculate on bitcoin. It’s so volatile that the price wildly swings by +-1 $1000 almost each day…So it’s perfect for people who try to time the market.

On the other hand, if you plan on doing a long term buy and accumulate and actually invest, drip a few hundred/thousand into an S&P500 index every month for the next 5-10 years and forget about it.[/quote]

20 something medical assistant at work was really gun-ho about bit coin, quieted down some over the last couple of weeks…[/quote]

I am not one to comment about it. I just don’t get bitcoin or crypto currency for that matter. I know the few younger engineers that work for me are crazy about it. the rest of the older engineers are like WTF..The ones talking about it are the ones that were still in college a few years ago when they bought a few coins around $100, not now when it’s $15k… I think for most of them, they are trying to figure out how to sell and pay taxes on it. some are trying to convert into hard money like gold bullion. i think that might be why if you go to eBay these days and look at some of the coin purchases from leading reputable dealers, you’ll suddenly see a lot of block purchases in which some purchases 35 1 ounce coins at once, at $1300ish a piece when prices where such that those coins were $40 above spot prices when gold was still in the $1280ies…some people were in hurry to buy a lot of gold quickly. it didn’t use to happen so frequently I think, and especially not when the spread from spot was that large. I could be wrong, but I swear there is uptick in these larger transactions and I am guessing it’s all the crypto currency holders converting into hard currency…. One of my friends did mention Bitcoin to me back years ago when it appeared in wired magazine. He was very anti-stock market and traditional speculation in the markets. Hopefully, he took advantage of the opportunity.

instant gratification and get rich quick!!!!!

[Anonymous]

[quote=flu]
I am not one to comment about it. [long paragraph of comments…][/quote]

[Coronita]

[quote=harvey][quote=flu]
I am not one to comment about it. [long paragraph of comments…][/quote][/quote]

whatever.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=flu][quote=harvey][quote=flu]
I am not one to comment about it. [long paragraph of comments…][/quote][/quote]

whatever.[/quote]

Media makes no distinguishment between block-chain technology and bitcoin. My view is that buying bitcoin or any other crypto-currency is like buying dotcom names in the 1990s. Investing in block-chain technology is also like investing in e-commerce companies in 1990s. One of these will be Amazon, others will be like pets.com or webvan.com. But the technology will spread due to this bubble.

[livinincali]

[quote=carlsbadworker]
Media makes no distinguishment between block-chain technology and bitcoin. My view is that buying bitcoin or any other crypto-currency is like buying dotcom names in the 1990s. Investing in block-chain technology is also like investing in e-commerce companies in 1990s. One of these will be Amazon, others will be like pets.com or webvan.com. But the technology will spread due to this bubble.[/quote]

Best case is blockchain tech does get picked up and somebody or a couple somebodies have something of value. Worse case it vanishes into thin air. Bit coin by definition sort of has an end to it. This is exactly like the internet bubble of 2000. It will be easy come easy go for the vast majority of people and a couple lucky/smart ones will get out unscathed. Most will loss their ass and be around in 20 years telling the next generation’s bubble seekers they are stupid for getting involved in X just like the 40 something engineers are telling the 20 something crypto fools they are going to get hammered.

[The-Shoveler]

Bitcoin mining could use more electricity in 2018 than Argentina.

Don’t know seems like a big waste and stress on the environment IMO.

LOL Things we humans do.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, except this time it’s different.

Maybe Piggington should re-brand. Real estate is boring these days. It doesn’t get the clicks.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=harvey]Yeah, except this time it’s different.

Maybe Piggington should re-brand. Real estate is boring these days. It doesn’t get the clicks.[/quote]

This time is different, as we are witnessing the biggest bubble of all in history (although only in scale, not in size of financial assets).

[img_assist|nid=26508|title=bitcoin|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=678|height=329]

Enormous amount of money can be made with a bubble of this size.

[The-Shoveler]

Warren Buffett said on Wednesday the recent craze over bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies won’t end well.
“If I could buy a five-year put on every one of the cryptocurrencies, I’d be glad to do it but I would never short a dime’s worth.”

“Me” IMO the environmental cost of mining/creating these things is too great, the gov should put an end to it as fast as possible.

[ltsddd]

I broke down today and put some money into bitcoin (sort of) – a whole 2 shares of gbtc.

As for the market as a whole, it’s getting scary. I am seriously considering taking some $$ off of the table at the end of this month. Other than a little hiccup (-0.04%) in March 2017, the S&P500 has been up every month since Nov 2016.

After 8 days of trading this year my portfolio has out-gained every month of last year’s. A correction in the stock market would be healthy.

[svelte]

[quote=ltsdd]

As for the market as a whole, it’s getting scary. I am seriously considering taking some $$ off of the table at the end of this month. Other than a little hiccup (-0.04%) in March 2017, the S&P500 has been up every month since Nov 2016.
[/quote]

You said it man.

These two graphs should give anybody pause

[img_assist|nid=26512|title=Jan 2018 DJIA|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=275]

[Author]

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