[pepsi]

Just did a quick search and our (CA) total debt is about 45 (end of 2006), plus 1.5B as mentioned in the article for 2007. That is about $1300 for each everyone of us (or about $3700 per household).

[pepsi]

It does not make sense, because:

1. It creates moral hazar.

2. On the resale, I supposed the home owner's credit is shut ? Could they still quialify the same loan/terms they had before ? If their credit is still good and sound, then why not "default" again ? If it is shut, would they be able to afford 9 -10% interest rate at 20% off price ?

[pepsi]

It is sad to see when people can not explain it, then dismiss your question and said that number is insignificant. Or even name calling…. that is really sad.
I also see that you are trying to hold your positive attitudes when replying those nasty responses. Good job. (I know it is not easy.) Like some of them said, if you are not happy to see what schizo2buyORnot asked, get off this board. It is a public board, and being a regular does not mean you are the only one that can ask people off this board.

Anyway, I wasn't able to answer your question when I first read this thread, either. But, this morning, Bob Casagrand posted his monthly analysis about the SD market, and he explained why:

The August inventory was 22,989 which gave us an 11 month supply. The months supply is an overall market average, depending on size of home this varies from a low of 8 months supply to a high of 14 months. This will also vary by condo or detached home. In fact condos now have a lower months supply than detached homes. Thru August we have had 55,205 homes listed with an additional 17,198 listed homes that carried over from 2006 giving us a total activity for all list status of 72,403. As high as this number appears it is actually down from 2006 by about 3,000 homes. Clearly fewer people are listing their homes for sale this year. The inventory levels are somewhat caused by the inability to sell due to reduced demand causing homes to stay on the market longer, sort of a piling on effect. The ratio of sold homes to all listing activity this year is 26%, by far the lowest in 5 years, compared to 2003 which had a 72% ratio. This year we have had 30,700 listings expire, cancel or withdraw from the market compared to 3,600 for 2003; this clearly demonstrates the difficulty in selling homes.

So, basically, last year, everyone knew the boom was ending and wanted to cash out and listed their home to give it a shot. This year, they knew the market is terrible, hence, less people listed it, unless they really need to sell. I hope that explain it why the listings in LA or other markets are still increasing (since SD is the leading city into the bear market).

 

So, are we near a bottom ? I think not. This is probably the first year of real decline and I think there are 2 – 3 years of this in our future.

[pepsi]

Compared to 7/2, the listings for both zip codes are about 10% up, and pendings are about 20% down. Quite a dramatic change since the credit crunch started.

 

[pepsi]

There is no way that inflation will come down anytime soon. Just talked to our China supplier and guess what,  since Jun, the price has gone up 10% for the exact same item. This is mainly caused by the exchange rate and the labor cost over there.   China does not make the high end stuff that North America (i.e Canada) makes, but they cover a lot of low end merchandise in Wal Mart.

 And I think those low end stuff collectively have a lot of weight  in our CPI.

[pepsi]

Whenever the price goes up, people who can not afford the new tax bill will forclose and drive the price down.

And, with tax running from 2-4%, no one can not afford to wait out the RE cycle.

[pepsi]

Oh…. I did miss something. The SD lookup mistakenly lists the "nearby" 500K house from 92003.

[pepsi]

Oh…. I did miss something. The SD lookup mistakenly lists the "nearby" 500K house from 92003.

[pepsi]

Oh…. I did miss something. The SD lookup mistakenly lists the "nearby" 500K house from 92003.

[pepsi]

Can anyone delete this thread ?

Can I get some help  to remove it. Thanks ?!

[pepsi]

Can anyone delete this thread ?

Can I get some help  to remove it. Thanks ?!

[pepsi]

Can anyone delete this thread ?

Can I get some help  to remove it. Thanks ?!

[pepsi]

Alex, you are right, but I think you could be "Absolutely Right" if you changed the numbers to $400K. This way, 1.5M dropping to 400K will never happen in LJ, and no piggintonians could flame you for the inaccuracy.

[pepsi]

Alex, you are right, but I think you could be "Absolutely Right" if you changed the numbers to $400K. This way, 1.5M dropping to 400K will never happen in LJ, and no piggintonians could flame you for the inaccuracy.

[pepsi]

Alex, you are right, but I think you could be "Absolutely Right" if you changed the numbers to $400K. This way, 1.5M dropping to 400K will never happen in LJ, and no piggintonians could flame you for the inaccuracy.

[Author]

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