[pencilneck]

Rich, if not currently, was once probably considered way out on the fringe.

Rather than seek the fringe, look for good analysis. When good analysis becomes the fringe it merely illustrates the imbalanced perceptions of the mainstream.

[pencilneck]

Rich, if not currently, was once probably considered way out on the fringe.

Rather than seek the fringe, look for good analysis. When good analysis becomes the fringe it merely illustrates the imbalanced perceptions of the mainstream.

[pencilneck]

Rich, if not currently, was once probably considered way out on the fringe.

Rather than seek the fringe, look for good analysis. When good analysis becomes the fringe it merely illustrates the imbalanced perceptions of the mainstream.

[pencilneck]

Rich, if not currently, was once probably considered way out on the fringe.

Rather than seek the fringe, look for good analysis. When good analysis becomes the fringe it merely illustrates the imbalanced perceptions of the mainstream.

[pencilneck]

I wonder if the 2% interest rate for 5 years is the actual interest rate or just the payment amount. Is it possible that there is some negative amortization going on in these?

Guess you’d have to see the actual loan docs.

[pencilneck]

I wonder if the 2% interest rate for 5 years is the actual interest rate or just the payment amount. Is it possible that there is some negative amortization going on in these?

Guess you’d have to see the actual loan docs.

[pencilneck]

I wonder if the 2% interest rate for 5 years is the actual interest rate or just the payment amount. Is it possible that there is some negative amortization going on in these?

Guess you’d have to see the actual loan docs.

[pencilneck]

I wonder if the 2% interest rate for 5 years is the actual interest rate or just the payment amount. Is it possible that there is some negative amortization going on in these?

Guess you’d have to see the actual loan docs.

[pencilneck]

I wonder if the 2% interest rate for 5 years is the actual interest rate or just the payment amount. Is it possible that there is some negative amortization going on in these?

Guess you’d have to see the actual loan docs.

[pencilneck]

Case Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/

Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.

Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.

A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.

[pencilneck]

Case Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/

Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.

Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.

A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.

[pencilneck]

Case Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/

Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.

Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.

A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.

[pencilneck]

Case Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/

Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.

Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.

A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.

[pencilneck]

Case Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/

Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.

Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.

A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.

[pencilneck]

Submarkets aside, its pretty clear that nationally housing is currently softening. The plunge in mortgage applications is one telling indicator. Another is the shift from appreciation to depreciation in the case shiller index (in 18 of 20 markets I believe).

I believe San Diego, as a whole, will soon follow suit. The pause in the housing decline appears to be over. I think this will be visible in the San Diego markets by this Fall, but I’m not absolutely sure about this. I’m more confident in the general trend than exact timing.

Best of luck to all.

[Author]

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