[patb]

even if it underperforms, it will be awesome as you realize, how things are changing.

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a good panel is environmentally tested. they run it through accelerated aging

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never own a rental you can’t imagine living in and where you can’t get
down easily to meet a plumber or roofer,

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50 MPG hybrids are well within a 3-5 year investment return for reasonable
driving cycles.

100 MPG hybrids are here but the ROI is thin but they are cool

give it another decade and you will either see them at 150 MPG or
pure EV

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They don’t need a lot of batteries in the swap unit, if they recharge them, and say they recharge in say 30 minutes, you just figure you aren’t going to get more then one Model S per 15 minutes, so you need 2 batteries

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but if people pay $80, then it’s an 80K car.

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where i thought the video was deficient is it doesn’t discuss trade deficits.

it’s assuming a closed economy which is true enough for what it says
but it misses what happens when you run big deficits.

say you buy a trillion a year in arab oil, well, if you don’t sell
them finished goods (Jets), then you are sending them cash and either
creating deflation here, or borrowing from them, and paying rents.

[patb]

never said that,

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AN

“I am fully aware of plug-in hybrid tech and I personally think they’re more ready for prime time than 100% EV as it stands today.”

True dat, Right now EVs are at the same place in the Learning curve
Hybrids were in 97-03. Remember the hybrids of that era? Insight,
Prius and GM had recently shutdown the EV-1.

The Prius 1 was ugly, small and underpowered and cost $5K more then
a standard tercel and was losing $10K/unit for toyota.

The Insight 1 was a 2 seater, underpowered and looked like a wind up toy.

Okay, But engineering was pushed, mechanics learned about them,
and now the Prius Synergy drive undergirds the Toyota line from Prius to the Highlander and hybrid sales are now over 50% of Lexus unit volume.

Honda has been pushing the Hybrid up into the Civic, Accord,,,

I got a 2010 insight and it’s a lovely car. A little pricy on maintenance,
but it does just about everything i ever want and drives great.
I average 47 MPG.

The issue for EV’s is the battery price curve won’t be there until 2020, at which
point, EVs will be on the same place on the curve Hybrids were.

You like the Tesla S, right now the High Speed charger is 100 KW, they are working on a 250 KW charger, which will let you put 400 miles into the battery in half an hour. Seems nutty to me, but, then again the 100 KW charger did too.

I think Tesla has set the bar for high end and they are seriously getting traction amongst upscale buyers.

Right now EVs are upscale purchases, same as Solar and other green tech, but, it’s moving along.

[patb]

if you like the volt, realize the volt will likely be a key part of GM’s platform in 5 years. the Cadillac ELR is using the VOLTEC drive train, in 5 years, i suspect
GM will have extended that into escalades, Sierra’s, etc..

Toyota is continuing to grow the Hybrid Synergy drive. I suspect in 5 years
all of Toyota’s platforms will have a hybrid option and many of them will have
a Plug in option with a range of 20 Miles electric.

as for the Tesla, not every car has to use the Tesla battery, so much as they have to have a removable pack that’s mechanically compatible to Tesla.

Or what’s going to happen is you will see little small range extension trailers
for EV’s that have to take the occasional long road trip. When the EV-1 came out the engineers rigged little generators on 2 wheel carts so they could ferry to the test track. I suspect as EV’s get bigger, Level 3 charging, battery swap and the towed trailer will all add to the choice matrix.

I’m not sure why you are so down on Battery, but it would seem you are a better client for a Volt, a C-Max Energi or any of the EREV hybrids, so why not get one of those?

[patb]

pretty decent settlement.

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[quote=AN][quote=patb]To go 500 miles, you probably need a 150 KWH Battery pack. WIth head room for life cycle and protection from “Bricking”, you probably need some 220 KWH.

at $700/KWH, thats a 150K in Battery alone.

a $300/KWH, that’s a 70K battery, plus motors, car, etc. it’s probably a 120K vehicle.

Teslas strategy has been to aim for about 200 Miles range, then stick Superchargers around at nodes and to cut up 400 mile legs.

I have to say Tesla’s strategy has been apparently sound.[/quote]If they can get 300 miles from 85kWh from the Model S, then they only need 140kWh to get 500 miles. 220kWh battery would be an over kill.

But you do bring up a very good point, and that’s the fact that battery is expensive and supply is limited so far.

How can you say Tesla’s strategy is sound when it hasn’t been implemented yet. Also, it’s one thing to convince the to 1% to buy a halo toy. It’s another thing all together to convince your average buyers in the $30-40k range to buy something that’s is as limiting as EV in its current form. I personally thing FCV would be much more likely to replace ICE cars than EV is. I’m not sure about you, but when I do road trip, I like to drive at night and I don’t want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere for at least an hour to charge up my EV. At least w/ FCV, you can refuel in the same amount of time as gasoline. EV has its place, for those who don’t do road trips or those who have a second car to do road trip (300+ miles one, not to LA from SD and back).

Anyways, only time will tell whether Tesla’s strategy is sound or not. It’s way too early to tell.[/quote]

Why don’t you like the Chevy Volt or BMW i3, i8?

Also Tesla’s strategy is rapid battery change.

BTW, even with a standard 100 KW Tesla Charger, in 15 minutes,
you know that will add in 75 miles of range. I don’t know how far you drive at night, but you just need enough range to go home.

[patb]

[quote=joec]What about the concern that replacing all these batteries for ALL these cars would be expensive and a total pain after 5 years?

Like how your cell phone or wireless headphones or pretty much anything won’t keep a charge anymore after a certain amount of time. It could cost 10k to replace the batteries on the Tesla.

That’s one of my biggest concerns with owning one of these EV vehicles, even the cheaper ones.

Even with costs coming down, it’s still so much more than the $50-$100 standard car bat.[/quote]

people said that about Hybrid cars too. It didn’t happen.

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[quote=AN

I wonder if they’ll put more battery in the Model X to greatly extend the range, since they have a lot more space to work with. Imagine a 6000lb Model X tank that can go 500 miles. I think I’ll be totally interested in that.

.[/quote]

To go 500 miles, you probably need a 150 KWH Battery pack. WIth head room for life cycle and protection from “Bricking”, you probably need some 220 KWH.

at $700/KWH, thats a 150K in Battery alone.

a $300/KWH, that’s a 70K battery, plus motors, car, etc. it’s probably a 120K vehicle.

Teslas strategy has been to aim for about 200 Miles range, then stick Superchargers around at nodes and to cut up 400 mile legs.

I have to say Tesla’s strategy has been apparently sound.

[patb]

say you have the 85 KWH.
It’s down at 1%

you have 5 hours in the cheap bracket,

so you need to put in ( 85/5) or 17 KWH/Hour or 17 KW.

Now i would imagine the HPWC is hooked up to 2 Pole 220 Volt.

so P=IV, so 17,000/220 = 77amps. so your figures are correct.

if you have a 100 Amps breaker you are loading it at under 80% continous.
which is NEC load ratings.

not a bad sizing and probably why he has a 100 amp breaker on his main panel.

The author notes he charges at 60 Miles of range/Hour. assume the Tesla is getting about 3.1 Miles/KWH, you need about 19 KW to power that consumption. a little less if he’s doing slightly better or the HPWC is running a little hotter, for a short period of time.

Now FWIW Tesla has these fast chargers on I-5, and they are 100 KW. I don’t think they are running at 350 Amps but they could be running close to 800 Volts, right up around the arc limit.

Now people usually arent

[Author]

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