[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

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