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partypup
ParticipantI’m just happy that people on this board have stopping yapping about Obama and his “feel good” platform that will do virtually nothing to address what truly ails this country. Aside from Paul (and MAYBE Edwards), there’s no horse in this race that will make one whit of difference in our lives come January 2009. At its core, American politics today is essentially an argument over two flavors of vanilla, regardless of whether the candidate is a white man, a white woman or a black man. By the time any candidate has amassed enough money to appear on the national stage, they have been bought, sold and locked to the Establishment. Deluded Americans are being given the illusion of choice in order to anesthetize them to the real pain around them, much as we root for our favorite team in professional sports. It’s a distraction of enoromous proportions. Unless Paul or Edwards is on the ticket in Nov 2008, I’m not wasting my time voting. It will strictly be a calorie-burning exercise.
ParticipantI’m just happy that people on this board have stopping yapping about Obama and his “feel good” platform that will do virtually nothing to address what truly ails this country. Aside from Paul (and MAYBE Edwards), there’s no horse in this race that will make one whit of difference in our lives come January 2009. At its core, American politics today is essentially an argument over two flavors of vanilla, regardless of whether the candidate is a white man, a white woman or a black man. By the time any candidate has amassed enough money to appear on the national stage, they have been bought, sold and locked to the Establishment. Deluded Americans are being given the illusion of choice in order to anesthetize them to the real pain around them, much as we root for our favorite team in professional sports. It’s a distraction of enoromous proportions. Unless Paul or Edwards is on the ticket in Nov 2008, I’m not wasting my time voting. It will strictly be a calorie-burning exercise.
ParticipantI’m just happy that people on this board have stopping yapping about Obama and his “feel good” platform that will do virtually nothing to address what truly ails this country. Aside from Paul (and MAYBE Edwards), there’s no horse in this race that will make one whit of difference in our lives come January 2009. At its core, American politics today is essentially an argument over two flavors of vanilla, regardless of whether the candidate is a white man, a white woman or a black man. By the time any candidate has amassed enough money to appear on the national stage, they have been bought, sold and locked to the Establishment. Deluded Americans are being given the illusion of choice in order to anesthetize them to the real pain around them, much as we root for our favorite team in professional sports. It’s a distraction of enoromous proportions. Unless Paul or Edwards is on the ticket in Nov 2008, I’m not wasting my time voting. It will strictly be a calorie-burning exercise.
ParticipantI’m just happy that people on this board have stopping yapping about Obama and his “feel good” platform that will do virtually nothing to address what truly ails this country. Aside from Paul (and MAYBE Edwards), there’s no horse in this race that will make one whit of difference in our lives come January 2009. At its core, American politics today is essentially an argument over two flavors of vanilla, regardless of whether the candidate is a white man, a white woman or a black man. By the time any candidate has amassed enough money to appear on the national stage, they have been bought, sold and locked to the Establishment. Deluded Americans are being given the illusion of choice in order to anesthetize them to the real pain around them, much as we root for our favorite team in professional sports. It’s a distraction of enoromous proportions. Unless Paul or Edwards is on the ticket in Nov 2008, I’m not wasting my time voting. It will strictly be a calorie-burning exercise.
Participant“Please believe me when I tell you that I am now very aware of what you refer to as exotic loans. Please understand that I do know the mistakes I made that got me to this point. Please also understand that there are countless people that do not understand real estate as you do. I thank you for reading my request for help.”
Needhelp, I just want to extend my sincere sympathies to you for your plight. It is unfortunate that folks liek you who come to boards such as this, looking for advice and guidance, are persecuted for decisions you have made. While I think you, I and everyone else on this board would agree that your choices were foolhardy, it doesn’t sound like you were a speculator. Rather, I get the sense that you, like millions of other Americans who increasingly feel shut out of the American Dream, simply wanted a bite of the carrot that is dangled before all of us. I’m really sorry that you and your family are experiencing this misfortune right now.
That said, I agree with the majority advice here: it is imperative that you do a short sale, and if you can’t find a loss mitigator or other third party to make that happen, try it yourself. If that doesn’t work, pack your stuff and leave. Your credit score is going to tank more than it alreayd has, but it sounds like you and your family are very close. Hopefully, one of you will keep a decent score that will enable you to pool your money when the time is right and start over again.
Lastly, and this is extremely important: rent as cheaply as you can from here on and save EVERY penny you can find. There is a hard wind coming, and I can’t stress how important it will be to remain liquid. This time next year, housing woes will be the least of your worries.
Participant“Please believe me when I tell you that I am now very aware of what you refer to as exotic loans. Please understand that I do know the mistakes I made that got me to this point. Please also understand that there are countless people that do not understand real estate as you do. I thank you for reading my request for help.”
Needhelp, I just want to extend my sincere sympathies to you for your plight. It is unfortunate that folks liek you who come to boards such as this, looking for advice and guidance, are persecuted for decisions you have made. While I think you, I and everyone else on this board would agree that your choices were foolhardy, it doesn’t sound like you were a speculator. Rather, I get the sense that you, like millions of other Americans who increasingly feel shut out of the American Dream, simply wanted a bite of the carrot that is dangled before all of us. I’m really sorry that you and your family are experiencing this misfortune right now.
That said, I agree with the majority advice here: it is imperative that you do a short sale, and if you can’t find a loss mitigator or other third party to make that happen, try it yourself. If that doesn’t work, pack your stuff and leave. Your credit score is going to tank more than it alreayd has, but it sounds like you and your family are very close. Hopefully, one of you will keep a decent score that will enable you to pool your money when the time is right and start over again.
Lastly, and this is extremely important: rent as cheaply as you can from here on and save EVERY penny you can find. There is a hard wind coming, and I can’t stress how important it will be to remain liquid. This time next year, housing woes will be the least of your worries.
Participant“Please believe me when I tell you that I am now very aware of what you refer to as exotic loans. Please understand that I do know the mistakes I made that got me to this point. Please also understand that there are countless people that do not understand real estate as you do. I thank you for reading my request for help.”
Needhelp, I just want to extend my sincere sympathies to you for your plight. It is unfortunate that folks liek you who come to boards such as this, looking for advice and guidance, are persecuted for decisions you have made. While I think you, I and everyone else on this board would agree that your choices were foolhardy, it doesn’t sound like you were a speculator. Rather, I get the sense that you, like millions of other Americans who increasingly feel shut out of the American Dream, simply wanted a bite of the carrot that is dangled before all of us. I’m really sorry that you and your family are experiencing this misfortune right now.
That said, I agree with the majority advice here: it is imperative that you do a short sale, and if you can’t find a loss mitigator or other third party to make that happen, try it yourself. If that doesn’t work, pack your stuff and leave. Your credit score is going to tank more than it alreayd has, but it sounds like you and your family are very close. Hopefully, one of you will keep a decent score that will enable you to pool your money when the time is right and start over again.
Lastly, and this is extremely important: rent as cheaply as you can from here on and save EVERY penny you can find. There is a hard wind coming, and I can’t stress how important it will be to remain liquid. This time next year, housing woes will be the least of your worries.
ParticipantCome on, are you kidding? The dollar is now hitting another new low every other week! It’s losing ground at an astonishing pace against every major currency, including the Mexican peso.
“Fairly stable against most major currencies”? Let’s see… I opened up an offshore account in early Sept. In a mere 30 days, I’ve earned almost USD $2000 on $50K invested in Euros and Swiss francs. That’s money earned in another currency, NOT paying any interest, just simply going up as the dollar tanks.
If you think that’s “stable”, then you probably won’t mind the hair-raising hyper-inflation that is clearly just around the corner.
ParticipantCome on, are you kidding? The dollar is now hitting another new low every other week! It’s losing ground at an astonishing pace against every major currency, including the Mexican peso.
“Fairly stable against most major currencies”? Let’s see… I opened up an offshore account in early Sept. In a mere 30 days, I’ve earned almost USD $2000 on $50K invested in Euros and Swiss francs. That’s money earned in another currency, NOT paying any interest, just simply going up as the dollar tanks.
If you think that’s “stable”, then you probably won’t mind the hair-raising hyper-inflation that is clearly just around the corner.
Participant“that they may never be able to buy their own hope again or keep the one they have;”
Sorry for the typo: meant “house”, not “hope”.
ParticipantBloat, I agree with you on one point: things do run in cycles, and history does repeat itself. But I think you are being overly-optimistic in focusing only on doom and gloom periods of the past 50 years. I think we need to dig a little further back to find a parallel to what’s going on today. The Perfect Storm of a crashing housing market, a volatile stock market and a credit crisis have happened only once before in American History: in 1929.
What makes the crisis especially frightening in this go round is that the dollar has never been weaker. During the Great Depression, the dollar was a safe haven, which allowed us to weather the storm better and help us get back on our feet more quickly. This is primarily because we lacked staggering levels of debt, and our currency was tied to gold.
And don’t fool yourself: the ugliness that is about to be unleashed will not be worse for China, 3/4 of its 1 billion people having never owned a car, a house, an iPod or a pair of designer shoes. The standard of living of the average Chinese citizen has not risen so far during this boom that they will be completely devastated when the crash comes.
No, the real pain will come to the indulgent, self-entitled, complacent American who has never experienced real pain, suffering, shortages or severe unemployment; the American who will have trouble adjusting to the fact that they may not be able to afford gas to get to work — and may have to walk or bike; that they may not have money to indulge in Christmas shopping or eating out; that they may not be able to buy a new car simply because they are bored with the 4-year old model in their garage; who won’t be able to take a trip every year or two to “get away from it all: that they may never be able to buy their own hope again or keep the one they have; that they may never be able to afford to send their child to college, because that is already becoming a luxury reserved for the upper middle and upper classes. Make no mistake, the coming “adjustment” will be much worse for people who are used to having it all.
History does and will repeat itself, yes. But just which bit of history we are about to repeat is the question. Personally, I believe that we will know by January 2008 whether this is crisis is one that most of us have lived through before, or whether we’re about to see something that only our grandparetns and great-grandparents have had the misfortune of experiencing.
Moreover, there’s not a damn thing that the next administration — Republican or Democrat — can do to reverse this crisis, unless they somehow harness the power to turn back the hands of time, maybe 30 years or so, before we accumulated massive debt, entitlement programs we no longer have the ability to pay for, and before we decided to import 70% of the goods we consume. I fear that the damage that has been done is irreversible, at this point, and that the 2008 elections will be largely about peddling a sense of false hope and denial. Denial is largely what got us into this mess. How long have we known about the looming deficit crisis and entitlement crisis and thought, “Well, things are still fine. So there must not be a problem, right?”
The wise American is one who will be prepared to accept the fact that their standard of living is about to be lowered (unless they take action and make investments now to prevent that from happening to them), as has happened to populations of formerly powerful civilizations through world history. As Americans, we are neither special or unique in this regard.
Again, I truly hope that my predictions are wrong. But we will know soon enough. Let’s return to this thread in 4 months…
PS — I’m sorry if this is perceived as too much “doom and gloom” for most, but it just seems to me that “this time it IS different”, fundamental changes to our world are happening, we need to be honest and recognize this instead of hoping and praying that this will be just a blip in a cycle that will end in continued prosperity for the US.
I don’t think there is any harm in being prepared for the worst.
ParticipantB-man, I sincerely hope you are right. And until 18 mos ago, I had been living my life under the assumption that the US would experience a slow, steady decline — certainly not something that I would witness in my lifetime. I’ve invested too much of my life and finances in this country and its institutions; it’s certainly not my preference to see it all go to crap.
But just consider how rapidly our decline has been developing lately: the price of oil ($22 in 2002); gold ($250 in 2002); the dollar’s decline (enough said – it’s dropped most 5% in the past 3 months alone!) The scope and pace of these changes simply do not indicate that we have 20-30 more years of “power” left. More frightening: the pace is not slowing. If anything, it is ACCELERATING.
And correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the Soviet Union collapsed in 20 years. Wasn’t it more along the lines of 10? I distinctly recall growing up with the threat of a nuclear Soviet when I was in high school in 1982, and by the time I graduated from law school in 1991, Russia had become a toothless tiger — irrelevant in world affairs. And what do you know? 20 years later, they are making a bid to re-establish themselves as a political and economic force. Let’s see: 1984 to 2007: power to decline to rising power again.
Change can happen — quickly.
Unlike Russia, however, the US has virtually stripped itself of oil, the natural resource that has re-ignited Russia’s wealth. I’m not sure what would re-ignite our growth, especially give the domestic demands like retirement and social security that you cited.
Also, the fact that others (i.e. those other than Americans) will be hurt severely when the US collapses does not preclude a swift collapse. Resistance is inevitably futile to the laws of economics.
Recall that prior to the Great Depression, the US was playing the role of China today, attempting to prop up an ailing UK with exports and cash. The US most certainly didn’t want the UK to tumble from power; we were not ready to assume the help of world empire. And when the UK tumbled and the Great Depression was triggered, EVERYONE suffered. Despite our valiant attempts to forestall the inevitable, the inevitable happened. And out of the ashes of the Great Depression the US rose to power and began to establish the dollar as the world’s new reserve currency over the Pound. It doesn’t matter what the players want; in the end, no matter how hard we may try to forestall the inevitable, we must reckon with the forces of economics.l And the longer we put off the inevitable, I believe harder or faster the fall. Much like pressure that builds up in a water hose when the neck is crimped. The longer the pressure builds up, the faster it all comes out.
Bottom line, no one thinks the US is going to vanish from the face of the Earth. Civilizations usually don’t disappear (with the exception fo the Mayans and those unfortunate folks on Easter Island). But I think we have to be mindful as JWM noted, that the rate of collapse may be actually be different than what we have experienced in the past, particularly since we now have a global economy and a chain reaction of events can be set off in a matter of days, weeks or months. Hundreds or thousands of years ago, countries gradually lost power over decades or longer because it took so much longer for them to amass the manpower necedssary to conquer and settle a territory, or to communicate information, or to feel the effects of changes to their economy throughout their country. And economies were relatively independent of one another.
But all that has changed now. BTW, have you ever seen “Rollover?” I’m not a big fan of Kris Kristofferson or Jane Fonda, but I watched it again recently, and damn! That movie was truly ahead of its time. Economic devastation can occur in the blink of an eye under the right circumstances. In short, the movie depicts what would happen if the Saudis (read: China in 2007) were to sell a fraction of their dollar reserves. The the results are catastrophic and immediate. Of course, it’s just a movie — but food for thought, nonetheless.
I might add that if this administration is foolish enough to go to Iran, the timetable for collapse will certainly accelerate, as we can surely not win militarily, nor do we have the funds to support another war. The last thing we need is for the world to publicly witness another resounding military defeat in the face of an economy that is admittedly now in severe deterioration. At that point, the Emperor will surely have no clothes. The US has remained Top Dog for the past half century because (a) we had a stable currency (b) with no viable alternative and (c) we had the military means to attack or defend anyone to adjust the world order as we saw fit. (a) and (b) are clearly things of the past. Our future as a world power depends on (c). Iraq has called that into serious question; events in Iran will provide a decisive answer.
Participant“Price controls http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_controls have been instituted 3 times in the last 60 years. If sustained inflation crosses 6%, I think it will be back.”
I guess price controls might work to suppress the price of some goods — like corn — and wages. But what about the commodity that drives the world economy: oil? Is it realistic to expect that if a devalued dollar brings the price per barrel to, say, $150, we can “freeze” the price that consumers pay at $4/gallon? That sounds to me like it would require a lot of gov’t subsidization — with money we don’t have.
What’s happening now — which is unique from the 70s and other periods of price controls — is that the U.S. imports the vast majority of its goods. So I wonder how will price controls work when we have no control whatsoever over the sources of production? In that case, it seems to me that the free market would have to set prices for those goods. And for anyone using the American peso, that ain’t good news.
We have placed ourselves in an untenable position, out of sheer arrogance.
The saddest thing to come out of all of this — and the reason that I think we are at greater risk of collapse than ever before — is that for the first time since WWII, the dollar is in grave danger of losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. People mocked the Euro 3 years ago (I wasn’t one of them; I was buying Euros). But now that it is $1.40 to the dollar, it is undeniably a force to be reckoned with. The greenback – *sigh * – is no longer irreplaceable. There is finally a viable alternative. And the Saudis realize this.
I think what would serve all of us right now is to take off our blinders and abandon the wishful thinking, because like it or not, what is happening now in the global economy — and to the US in particular — is simply UNPRECEDENTED. There’s no denying it. Every person on this board only has a memory of the US as the strongest, most powerful country on earth. We’ve spent our entire lives with that memory, so it’s understandable that we would cling to a belief that we will pull through this, we will stay on top, that things will return to the status quo. But at a certain point, I think we all have to come to terms with the fact that the world, and the global economy, is a dynamic, organic entity, and it changes. As it should. The US wasn’t always the King of the Hill. And it won’t always be the King. Right now, we are watching as the King is de-throned…
Our lives are about to change. Better to prepare for the change rather than being blind-sided by it. That’s my advice.
Participant“Definitely, I think we won’t see real loss of value of 50% in just a couple years (like for e.g. $1600 for gold, $200 for oil, $8 for milk, $6 for gas etc.,) unless we go through a Soviet style revolution – which I am not expecting.”
Okay B-man, if both of us are still on this board in September 2009, we’ll see where gold, oil and milk are. I’m not expecting $8 milk (I think the demand for cow juice will drop before we hit that price point), but $200 oil is not out of the question at all. Analysts in Asia and Europe were speculating this week (after the rate cut) that oil could easily be $180 by the end of next year. And if we take on Iran…you’d better hope you have a Huffy or a skateboard in your garage.
I actually think gold will be above $1600 in 3 years. In 1978 inflation-adjusted dollars, it should be about $1800/oz. I think the central banks have done a fine job of suppressing the price of gold to hide the deterioration of their fiat trash, uh…currency.
Here’s the bottom line: I don’t think that the Fed, Congress, the central banks or anyone esle at this point has the power to “slow the fall.” This beast has taken on a life of its own now. No one, least of all China, wants to see the US take a dirt nap. But the ugly truth is that the as soon as someone blinks, and the stampede begins, it’s over. It will happen so fast, there will be no time to think about safety nets.
And let’s face it: if they had any “real” safety nets, they would have used them by now. The only bullet they had was a rate cut. They fired and missed. In FACT, mortgage rates actually JUMPED after the rate cut, as they follow the bond rate: the average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage with no upfront points rose 1/8 of a percentage point on Thursday to 6-1/2 percent, according to BestInfo Inc. Doh!!!
We are in uncharted territory, my friend. “Safe” has no meaning anymore.
In a Depression (and make no mistake, that’s what we are about to enter)everyone does hurt. I guess that’s why they call it a Depression?
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