[paranoid]

fat_lazy_union, why do you say Del Sur is a ghost town? can you elaborate on this?

Another related question: which plave is better, Del Sur or 4S? I visited both communities recently, and Del Sur is more expensive than 4S. Do you know why?
thanks.

[paranoid]

Hipmatt, interesting info. do they have any new homes promotion in San Diego?

[paranoid]

you guys still don’t get it.
Do you know why the market keeps rising? that’s because there are too many bears like you out there. Don’t you believe me? look at the short ratio of the NYSE which is now at record high. The margin is also at record high, which is however mis-interpreted by the media as over-the-top bullish sentiment in the market. But such an interpretation is totally wrong, because when you short a stock, that is also counted in the margin account. When there are too many bears, the only way is for the market to continue to go up.

Since early march, I have warned several times over this message board that the chance is higher for Dow to go to 14000 and S&P500 to 1600 before the end of this summer, than going down. Nobody seems to hear my message. I don’t blame you. In fact for my own fortune, the more bears are ther, the better, because I have been FULLY invested. I’ll start to really worry when you bears throw in the towel, and cover all your short positions. That will be the time when I liquidate all my long positions.

BTW I’m bearish on housing since 2005.

[paranoid]

My own analysis shows that:
Dow is going to 14000 and SP500 is going to 1600 before the end of the summer. It may continue to go up or turn around and go down after that.

So if you are shorting the market, be very careful, and have an exit strategy ready, because you can be VERY VERY wrong.

BTW: I have been bearish on Housing since 2005, and I convinced a friend to sell his house in 2005. But I have bought REIT last year and made some good money from it.
I don’t see any contradition between being bearish on housing, and being bullish on stock markets in Short and Intermediate Term.

It’s all about Expectation, and exceeding or falling short of that Expectation.

[paranoid]

Dow at 14000, SP500 at 1600 before the end of this summer!
Guys and gals, be prepared, and get a strategy if you have been shorting the market. don’t get crushed.

[paranoid]

if you watched the fear indicator of the market (^VIX at yahoo), you should have seen the massive spike of fear at the end of february and beginning of march, and you would have known that that usually indicates at least a short term market bottom. The right strategy was thus to long the market, not short it for the short term. Of course the fear indicator does not tell what will happen in long term. For the long-term, the market may go higher or lower, and JG may still prove to be correct.

[paranoid]

VC:
I don’t know how you did your math:

”
$2200-2300 for the mortgage.
$600 property taxes
$150 HOA
$150 insurance
$100 Gardner
Total = $3200-3300.
Tax savings is roughly $700-800/month.
$300/month to principle.

Net costs come out to roughly $2000ish. Rent cost $1800.

so i’m paying an extra $200.
”

Your total Net Cost should be:
Total Gross Cost – Tax Savings =
$3200/3300 – 700/800 = 2400/2600

So compare that to your rent of 1800, I get an extra $600 to 800, that’s much larger than the $200 in your math.
Am I missing something?

Also your tax savings is the highest in the first year, and decreases over the years (because the portion of interest in your overall payment decreases toward 0 over years). So you may be over estimating your tax saving.

[paranoid]

Can somebody explain how to read these data? for example how to interpret NOD? is it the total accumulated NODs as of today, or is it the total number of NODs since beginning of the year or month?

What is meant by AUCTION? same for REO etc.
Thanks for your help.

[paranoid]

Accredited Home Lenders (nasdaq: LEND – news – people ) announced it had agreed to sell about $2.7 billion of its mortgages to an undisclosed buyer. Accredited said it was selling them at a “substantial discount.”

the stock has recovered from $3.77 to 11. can the lenders be saved some how? I’d prefer to see them (immoral) die.

[paranoid]

how many of Accredited Home Lenders will lose their jobs? It is headquatered in San Diego (92128) and has about 4000 employees nationalwide. It’s not clear how many are located in San Diego.

If all of them will lose their jobs, that will be just fine with me. I have not pitty towards those who make liars loans just to earn some commissions.

[paranoid]

I believe Fisher is just a momentum trader, nothing more than that.

I’m a bear of housing market. But I bought REIT ETF a few months ago and I earned +20% in such a short time. I’m still regreting that I didn’t buy home builder stocks in Q4/06 (I hesitated a lot) and I’m still looking for a good entry point to buy.

I know the REIT and home builder stocks may get trashed one day, but I also know that before that I’ll make some real money. If you don’t understand what I’m saying, you need to read about “contrarian thinking”, you need to look at the Short Interests of these stocks, and the trend of them. All these shorts are being squeezed which will only bring the stocks even higher in the near future. Those shorters may very well be proven to be correct in the final end, but for the moment they are lossing their shirt.

Market is smarter than you think. I’m still waiting the housing market to crash to buy a house.

[paranoid]

have you ever heard of “cyclic rally in a secular bear market”? If not, have a look at the stock market index like S&P500 or NASDAQ, between year 2000 and 2003. These cyclic rallys have the purpose to give suckers more chances to get OUT, not IN.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=2003-04-01&id=p82864017716

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=2003-04-01&id=p82864017716

[paranoid]

your english sucks. after reading several times, i still cannot understand who is who and what’s the scam.

[paranoid]

sdcellar,
I’m looking at the lower end of that range.
To narrow down the range, what I’m looking is about 1500 to 2200 feet^2, for a family of 4 including 2 small kids.

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