[masayako]

“Maybe if gold drops, I’d be willing to take a small position in gold, but nothing significant.”

And that is not speculative?

[masayako]

Tech job market (especially telecom) is no longer good in San Diego. You either work for Qualcomm/Nextwave/Broadcom/TI or head for Texas.

This is nothing like San Jose where one can choose from thousands of small/mid/large size high tech companies.

[masayako]

“Is the entire Nokia San Diego site shutting down?”

No. They will rehire a small percentage of people to do GSM/WCDMA. 50% or less. The rest will be let go.

[masayako]

Also, closing cost (3-4% of the purchase price) when you sell.

[masayako]

technovelist,

Thanks. Please help me with these questions to begin with.
How to buy it?
When to buy it?
Where to buy it?

Regards,

masayako

[masayako]

privatebanker,

I did talk to several finanical planner, most of them are too bullish about the stock market and their privately traded funds. To name a few, I have discussion with UBS and Edward Jones, they sound quite similar to mortgage brokers.

Of course, I’ll continue to search for my long term investment planning. In the short term, keeping money in 5.5% CD is the best I can think of.

powayseller,

Personally, I have become extremely bearish on stock/mutual funds. Most of the once I have keep track of is turning ‘red’, very red. IMO, too many negative components that could trigger a major recession.

To name a few:

– housing burst
– ATM style ARM resets
– Fannie & Freddie becoming Enron
– huge trade deficits
– insane govt budget spending
– American’s spending style
– People not having enough savings in the bank
– inflation and deflation
– war in Mid East
– insane oil price
– Big cap companies job cuts
– Lacking of solid alternative engergy plan (continue to depend on oil)
– “Bush”

I agree that getting into stock at this point may not be a wise decision, that’s why I want to see others’ opinion?

By the way, can you tell me which sites you used to research gold?

masayako

[masayako]

Does it sound like Ess-A-Aye-See?

Also a big project down the 5 from Lockheed Martin.

My answer is “Nooo….”

[masayako]

Zillow:
Sale History
09/30/1998: $225,000

[masayako]

I agree, SD is not such a great boom economy as many people expect.

1. First off -> “Qualcomm”. Though there are 500 jobs in the web, but are they really hiring 500 people?? I doubt it. I know for a fact that, by law, whenever a company has an opening, HR need to post the job openly to the public (Equal opportunity reasons).

A lot of times, the job is really intended for internal transfer or H1 visa holders (cheap SW engineers from India/China). They post the job in the web for 1 or 2 months, and they hardly interview anyone to fill those positions. Once, they fulfill the government’s requirement, they simply hire some H1 folks from another country and claim that they couldn’t find any good candidates; in fact, they simply want somebody cheap.

2. Telecom is simply not as HOT as several years back. True, Qualcomm is #1 in CDMA mobile technology. But, you know what, CDMA is representing less than 20% of the whole pie. The rest (80%) of the market is using GSM or WCDMA. Qualcomm is not the dominant power in GSM/WCDMA. As the CDMA is shrinking, QCOM profit is going to be hurt big time.

3. “Nokia and Qualcomm are in San Diego. The economy MUST BE GOOD in SD!!!”
– Not true. Nokia is ramping down their CDMA business unit in SD. I ‘expect’, 750-1000 people are going to be layoff. In fact, from my source, the big news is going to be announce on 8/8/06.

Also, remember the Sanyo-Nokia mobile phone business merger deal? It did not go through. It’s in the news too. The whole thing just fall apart. When Qualcomm is working too hard to force other competitors out of CDMA competition (ie Nokia) by pricing, IPR rights and monopolizing the chipset business. Nobody wins. Everyone switch to alternative technology (ie GSM/WCDMA) to avoid the bully.
SD loses the business and workforces are moving out.

4. “Motorola is hiring”
– Well, Motorola is always hiring, true. BUT they also frequently laying people off. They hire a bunch of people working for them to rush for big projects. When the project is done, “SEE YA”.

5. Rumors have that a ‘huge’ government contracting deal didn’t go through. I won’t mention company name as this is just rumor and I’m working to get more info on this. Hundreds of people could possibly be affected.

Talk about job loss in the near future. 🙂

With the housing bubble burst and job loss, from my estimation, “50% drop is pretty much IN DA BAG” for the next 7-10 years. What do you think, Mr Watts? How ’bout them apples?

By the end of this 2006, we will all see a MUCH clear picture of the local SD economy. Mark my word.

Regards,

masayako

[masayako]

Vay Ashby,

Why do you think us potential buyer(s) give a ____ what the seller(s) want?

The Market determines the prices, not the sellers.

Go back and take History 101 and talk to the elders what had happened during the Great Depression.

If anyone is stupid enough to buy into the market at the highest, he/she is deemed to pay the price, fool.

The sellers can’t sell their houses because they are greedy. They want the biggest paycheck possible with their property and this guy is blaming us not to buy in????? What the…?!

[masayako]

Powayseller,

You make my day. I have absolutely no doubt you have more knowledge of the current housing situation than Mr. Gin. That’s for sure.

We only need facts, not lies.

By the way, Mr. Gin, in case you don’t know, my true name is Masaya Ko (masayako), smart guy.

[masayako]

I’m considered high income (6 figures) and I simply refuse to buy and pay for other’s retirement. My wife and I will rent as long as it takes. If the market does not drop by 30%, we won’t buy. We are just as happy to rent and use the money to invest.

It’s stupid to buy. Period.

[masayako]

Mr. Gin,

You still did not answer my 2 honest questions:

1. “… Sir, you’re saying the price is not going to drop significantly, how do you explain the current situation in which some area have already dropped 10% while many other area have dropped as much as 15%!?

The second multiple choice question is asked:
2. Are you one of the following:
(A) investigated too much in flipping houses?
(B) simply a liar or
(C) ignorant? …”

Mr. Gin, you cannot accuse people challenging (or questioning you being a liar) simply because you’re giving the wrong impression of the market the general public. Throughout your long reply, you never ONCE defends your optimistic point of view of the housing market.

Once again, I did not call you a liar, I merely ask if you are one. Please get your fact straight and don’t jump to conclusion too far (like your opinions).

[masayako]

I can honestly tell you. The current U.S economy is so shaky to the point I simply don’t dare to invest in any U.S. equity at this point until I see a clearer big picture.

I envision a recession starting end of 2006 to early 2007. I simply don’t see how the economy can hold up when tons and tons of people are trying to cash in with their houses at this point.

Let me tell you one interesting thing I observed. Past Saturday, me and my wife went to check out rental homes. Rental proprties mgmt company now organizing OPEN HOUSE for rental homes because the demand is so high. We visited the house at 2:00pm and there are literally more than 20 people waiting for the agent outside the house!!!

This is not the interesting part. The funny part is that there are 2 OPEN HOUSE for sell (one on the side, one across the street) and have absolutely NO ONE visit.

People already in panic. That’s for sure. Everybody want to cash in including the people who bought way before 1998 housing bubble simply because no one want to see their equity disappeared.

[masayako]

The problem is that the interviewer never ask the real question. And the real question is no longer “Do you think there will be a big drop in housing price?”

The real question is:

“… Sir, you’re saying the price is not going to drop significantly, how do you explain the current situation in which some area have already dropped 10% while many other area have dropped as much as 15%!?

Oh, by the way, here is a multiple choice question for you:
Are you:
(A) investigated too much in flipping houses?
(B) simply a liar or
(C) ignorant? …”

[Author]

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