More Lies from Alan Gin

[powayseller]

Today’s Reuters story covers the falling San Diego condo market, and quotes a bunch of lies from Alan Gin.

First, he doesn’t educate anyone that the median is useless, and uses the 1% drop as evidence that things are still good, and second, he says that we need a recession to get a big drop in prices, omitting that we are seeing big drops already and not mentioning the ARM problem. The guy should be fired for lying to the public!

“I wouldn’t put a lot on that 1 percent drop at this point,” said Alan Gin, an economist with the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego. “There is no panic with people trying to sell their homes.”

Meanwhile, overall home prices across San Diego will plateau, Gin predicted.

“The conditions aren’t there for a big rebound in prices or for a big drop,” he said. “We would need a big drop in interest rates to get any significant movement on prices on the upside. We would need to see some significant job losses, a recession at the national level, to get a big drop in prices.”
ENE QUOTE

Don’t we have big drops in prices already? What do you call a 10% drop in listing prices?

[SD Realtor]

I should pass Alan the phone numbers of my UTC condo owners whose comps are now 40k under thier purchase price. These same people who bought in 2004 are getting squeezed by thier mortgage, have already talked to the lender about a short sale, and have a complex where there are over 20 listings with thier same floorplan on the market.

Yeah nothing to worry about…

[Bugs]

A lot of things you’re complaining about are his stated opinions – kinda hard to know about him being dishonest with his own opinions. Of the others, I don’t see any errors in his facts.

I strongly disagree with him but I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s lying.

Besides, there’s no getting away from the data. Alls he can do at this point is try to spin it and hope the sheeple will take him at his word. As for the rest of us, the trend will prove itself in its own good time.

BTW, $40,000 losses are bad (REALLY bad), but there are people here in SD who have already lost a lot more than that.

[powayseller]

If he’s not lying, he’s stupid. How can he claim to be a real estate researcher, and not know that the median is a 2 year lagging indicator, and know about all the people who are upside down by up to $60K, as written on these forums? He’s spinning the data, and to me, that’s lying.

[an]

I completely agree that he’s lying. He’s definitely not stupid. He has a PhD in economic and is a professor at USD. So I’m sure he knows what’s going on. He has a vested interest so he keep on spinning, just like DL and LAY.

[rankandfile]

We need to call these people out for what they are: liars. You can call it spin, semantics, whatever. The bottom line is that he is propogating “non-truths” aka lies about the current housing situation and we need to call him out on it. These people have had enough free passes over the past decade. It’s time to make them come correct for a change.

[masayako]

The problem is that the interviewer never ask the real question. And the real question is no longer “Do you think there will be a big drop in housing price?”

The real question is:

“… Sir, you’re saying the price is not going to drop significantly, how do you explain the current situation in which some area have already dropped 10% while many other area have dropped as much as 15%!?

Oh, by the way, here is a multiple choice question for you:
Are you:
(A) investigated too much in flipping houses?
(B) simply a liar or
(C) ignorant? …”

[SD Realtor]

My read is that the more educated the person is that is being interviewed, the more educated his answer should be. If he really doesn’t know then he should say that. What irks me is that someone of that degree should have the insight to say that the presentation of the data is what is particularly poor. That the data needs to be organized in a manner that is germaine to real estate.

My suggestions for at least a start:

1 – Organize it by zip codes and by sizes of homes.

2 – Segregate condos and SFRs.

3 – Throw out the highs and lows of the sample sets.

4 – If possible try to identify if the sale was of an owner occupied home or not.

5 – If possible try to identify if the buyer is purchasing it as a rental or not.

6 – Report cancelled, expireds and withdrawns for each category above.

As we have all seen, the way that the statistics are presented one can argue any way they want.

Most of us who argue in favor of a declining market do so based on other stats rather then the median.

[powayseller]

Bugs, why are you defending Alan Gin?

[Bugs]

I wouldn’t say I’m defending Mr. Gin or that I’m some sort of fan because I’m not. I’ve made comments about his comments and his connections here on this forum before.

All I was doing was pointing out the distinction between what amount to opinions and the facts he’s quoting to support them. I happen to think the phrase “liar” is pretty strong for the type of advocacy he’s pursuing. It’s just like when we casually bandy about comments about the market having already declined 10% and 15%. A bull would have no problems finding statistics to contradict that claim – would that entitle them to call the people expressing that opinion “liars”? Of course not.

This all goes back to that civility thing I always whine about. This isn’t a political campaign where the ends justify the means. We’re not here to convert the world to the one true religion upon pain of death. We’re here because we’re trying to figure this out and we’re trying to find the optimum path for ourselves. Toward that end we seek information. I’d like to think we are a question in search of an answer, not a conclusion in search of validation.

If we want to have a serious discussion and solicit information from a wide range of sources it’s not helpful to get into the habit of mistaking the individual for the message. If we’re bugged about the comments we should address those comments and the facts in support for or against them directly.

I don’t agree with the guy, but I’m smart enough to recognize that I don’t know as much as I’d like to know and there is a possibility that he has a couple pearls of information that I might be able to use to my benefit. If I keep an open mind he might accidentally drop one of those pearls in front of me. If I totally blow him off I would miss that opportunity.

I believe that it is possible to have a disagreement with someone without taking it personally or making it personal. I don’t always make it but I always try.

[privatebanker]

Alan Gin = Mary Meeker? Sure one’s an economist and the other an analyst but their claims are/were very similar. Pounding the table with their biased views ended up and will end up losing millions for investors willing to believe in their hot air.

One shouldn’t trust the opinions of those who could be speaking with two tongues. We all know “Al” is just trying for job security at this point.

[Bugs]

Let’s just say that teaching at the university isn’t his only gig.

[privatebanker]

C’est possible. Alan could have a second career. I’m sure he could also be a “Consultant” for real estate related services. Don’t get me wrong here, I’m sure Alan is a very intellegent individual however, I think he has let $ signs or some other motivating factor get in the way of him divulging truthful information to the public.

[lindismith]

He does have many careers related to RE.

I took his extension course through UCSD last year on how to convert multi-family units to condos. It was a 1-day seminar, and it cost me $100. The room had 300 people. I don’t know how many times he taught that class.

He started the course talking about his background in Economics, and then his foray into RE. His first personal conversion was +- 200 units in La Mesa in the 80s. He now has a firm that does just conversions. His son came on board last year.

He is a really nice guy. He has a wealth of information, and he personally returned any emails I wrote him.

BUT, he is really savvy, and he does have a vested interest in saying the market is ok.

Lastly, I agree with Bugs. What Gin is saying is just the most positive way of putting it. Of course, we all know better, and see the data for what it really is.

[Anonymous]

Alan Gin replies: First Roger Hedgecock blasts me for being too pessimistic, and now I’m being blasted here for being too optimistic. I’m gettng it from all sides.

It’s unfortunate that I have to use this first post to clear up some misconceptions about me, but there are a lot of them that have been expressed on this site. The first I want to mention is the last post by lindismith. I’ve never taught the course on condo conversions that was mentioned in the post. I’m afraid lindismith has me confused with Alan Nevin of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, who is also the chief economist for the California Building Industry Association. He’s a nice guy, a great speaker, and I’ve been on a couple of panels with him. But if you think I’m over-optimistic, you should hear him.

There seems to be a suspicion here that my connection with the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego has tainted my views of the current housing market. So what is that connection? I am listed as an affiliated faculty member of that center, both on the center’s Website and on my bio. As an affiliated faculty member, I teach a course every two years in my specialty, Urban Economics, that undergraduate students can take if they want to have an emphasis in real estate. That is what it means to be an affiliated faculty member of the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.

On top of that, because I make numerous media appearances and speaking engagements, the center pays me a stipend (less than five percent of my income) to promote the CENTER. That means that I try to drop the center’s name as much as possible in interviews and presentations. I’ve joked that I should get a Burnham-Moores hat and patches for my suits like the NASCAR drivers. But the center and its supporters have never asked me to espouse a particular point of view. Specifically, I have never been asked to paint a positive view of the real estate market. And I personally feel under no obligation to do so. In fact, I have taken a number of positions publically that puts me at odds with both the bulding industry and the general business community. If they said that I needed to take a different position retain my stipend, I would give it up. The sum involved is less than when I take a class of undergraduates to study International Economics in Hong Kong.

What about my outside activities as a consultant to the real estate industry? There are none. Last year, the extent of my outside income was some speaking fees for a local bank that was looking to attract customers, a course on “Executive Economics” for one of UCSD’s extension programs, and as a consultant to a lawyer in a wrongful termination case.

What about my personal involvement in real estate? Am I trying to protect a vast real estate empire with my positive views? Hardly. I own an older home (built in 1986) in Rancho Penasquitos that I bought in 2002. It doesn’t have the bells and whistles or size of newer homes, but we like it. It’s cozy and good enough for us. It’s within walking distance of a pretty good elementary and middle school, so we’re going to be living here probably at least 10 years more, if not retire here. Because of my wife’s assets, I was able to keep the townhouse I bought in 1989 and use it as a rental. Those are the extent of my real estate holdings, and I’m unlikely to try to add any more to it. So no, masayako, I’m not flipping houses. Since I’m planning on holding on to both pieces of property for at least 10 more years, it really doesn’t matter to me what happens in the short or intermediate term. In fact, I would argue that those of you who are trying to trade this market based on a bubble popping scenario have more of a vested interest in talking the market down than I do in talking the market up.

Let me conclude by discussing the issue of civility. Where has it gone in our society? I didn’t know about this site until someone sent me a nasty e-mail yesterday. In searching the site, I found that there have been a number of posts attacking me. I understand that you may disagree with my view, but why the ugliness? powayseller, I’m calling you out in particular. What did I ever do to you to warrant the bitterness that I see in your posts? I would respect a reasoned arugment, but instead you use ad hominem attacks such as “lying,” “stupid,” and “idiot.” Is there something about the anonymity of a site like this, where you can use a phony name, that makes one lose the manners and politeness that I hope you were brought up with? In other words, would you be using the same tone and calling the same names if we knew what your real name was? The same goes for you asianautica (“lying”), rankandfile (“liars”), and masayako (“liar,” “ignorant”). Bugs, you’ve said or implied some negative things, but I do appreciate your call for civility earlier in this thread. Can there be a conversation without name calling and the impugning of the motives of the people you disagree with?

[Author]

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