[masayako]

vrudny,

Hi there, my Piggington friend. There is no misery to the current pricing of The Summit. You can check the pricing at this website. Unfortunately, they only keep track the data for 12 months. So, I can’t tell whether it peak at 2004 or 2005.

http://www.r-e-sale.com/marketupdate.asp?d=The+Summit&m=6

The only data they have concerning 1232 sqft is this:
Address Bed/Bath Sq. Ft. Sale Price Close Date
17161 Alva Road #2212 3/2 1232 $369,000 4/10/2006

No doubt in my mind The Summit will continue to drop. How much? It’s everyone’s guess. But I recall, in sabre spring, we used to be able to get a 2300 sqft new single family home for $335000, at that time. Condo with 1200 sqrt in RB was about $200000 in 2000. So, my guess is, 2/2 condo in RB should return to low $200k price ($225k-$255k) depend on condition/interest rate/location and other factors. That’s just my assumption.

Given that it is a condo conversion. Those, I believe, will drop like rocks from the top of the palomar mountain to the abyss of the pacific ocean. Don’t be surpised those will drop back to $165k to $200k price range. Personally, I wouldn’t even consider buying condo conversion simply because the quality of the house itself — sucks.

In a few years, when the price is adjusted, you should check out Collage, Provenal in Carmel mountain ranch area. Those are good quality townhomes. Good luck.

Masayako

[masayako]

Yes, as a matter of fact, I’m adding more Gold the coming Monday (IAU) to my portfolio. Unlike Mr. Market, I’m bullish in gold and I believe the central banks DO manipulate the gold supply to keep the U.S. dollar up. So, the cheaper the gold, the more I’m buying. That’s just my humble opinion. =) Gold is the way to go in inflation time. I believe Federal reserve has not done enough to fight inflation and, at the same time, they have ‘potential’ recession to worry about (Housing bubble/High oil). So, I don’t have confidence with the USD. They will just keep printing more and more paper bills, getting us higher and higher in debt and, at the same time, try to manipulate Gold market by adding more gold to the pool and keeping supply high. It’s just an illusion to keep USD afloat.

Masayako

[masayako]

The market update did not include the exact address for security reason. But I know they are accurate because my house has been listed in their site as well when I was selling.

[masayako]

PowaySeller,

Thanks, but no thanks. I’m not a speculator, not good at it, and don’t want to speculate with my life saving. I am not good at shorting(guessing) and it does not fit my investment strategy. Like Buffett said, in short term, no body can tell the stock price. It’s more like guessing with wishful thinking.

After getting out from the housing bubble(with big gain), I just don’t plan to jump right into another stock speculation.

Good luck and thanks anyway. =)

Masayako

[masayako]

bgates,

For what it’s worth (also, not much), I want to tell you I appreciate your post. It makes sense to me.

Masayako

[masayako]

If you blindly listen for ‘insider’s info’ without any concrete data, you are surely in ‘bigtrouble’. That’s for sure.

[masayako]

If you blindly listen to ‘insider’s info’ without any concrete data, you are surely in ‘bigtrouble’. That’s for sure.

[masayako]

Welcome to the forum.

Home price:
First, I want to give you my honest opinions. My research (and based on historical data) shows me that housing price has a high chance to decrease at least 30% within 5-7 years timeframe. Some boldly predict 50%. I have reserve about that prediction. I am not saying it’s not possible, just not likely. Given the wage factor, general affordibility of San Diegean, I just don’t see it dropping so much unless we have some kind of nationwide disaster, massive job loss or $200 oil per barrel.

Affordibility
Second, with $64,500 combined annual income is really tough to buy any decent home at this point. My wife and I have a combined income at low 6-figure and we’re still having a hard time buying a decent size newer house in Rancho Bernardo. In San Diego, we are competitive with many other high paid employees from telecom companies, biotech companies, financial companies. I recently talked to my friend from Microsoft in Seattle. They live about 20 minutes drive from Microsoft site and they house is in around $450000. Even they knew about the crazy housing price in San Diego and told me to relocate. =)

My suggestion to your situation: Try to get a better paid job in anyway you can. On average salary get you on average house. The nature of economics do not change.

[masayako]

1. Currently renting
2. Yes
3. Sold May 06 (6% off peak price)
4. Independent analysis, Piggingtons, neighborhood comps. (Can’t trust the news these days)
5. No. Will buy a better and bigger house with 30% discount
6. N/A
7. N/A

[masayako]

asianautica,

I couldn’t agree more. One need to look at their market position and you will know.

3 months back when QCOM stock worth around $50, I estimate the intrinsic value of QCOM stock should be around $15. People call me crazy and told me there is no chance QCOM could go down like that. Oh well…

I still stand by my analysis. QCOM should be worth only about $15 per share.

masayako

[masayako]

JES,

Nokia promise NOT to lay off anymore after this. Well… we never know. But that’s the committment they have right now.

The 500 people that remains will work on GSM/WCDMA cellphone.

Qualcomm got to look out for their shrinking CDMA market. Nokia + GSM in U.S. is a very powerful combination. Look at Asia and Europe, 1/3 of people are Nokia fans, some of them owns more than 1 Nokia phone at a time.

[masayako]

ybc,

“Masayako, I thought of your earlier comments when the news came out yesterday. So do you know what type of jobs got impacted the most? And will Qualcomm and Motorola asborb a lot of these jobs?”

>>> SW developers got impacted the most. Mgmt will retain a total of 500 jobs in SD, the impacted ones are mostly sw engineers, mid mgrs, project mgmt, testing engineers. I know some marketing folks will be gone too.

Qualcomm and Motorola are certainly lurking for talents. But I doubt if they can absorb everyone.

Qualcomm: The CDMA market is shrinking (to roughly 20%). Telecom market is extremely competitive. Unless there’s a need to fill a vacancy, otherwise I don’t think they are adding a lot of headcounts.

Motorola: Some mgmt folks told me that the Motorola site in San Diego is fighting for a big project with another Motorola site. That’s why they are hiring many ppl to get themselves into position to take on the proj. I think in the long term, working for Motorola is not as stable as everyone assume it is, just like Kyocera. That’s just my opinion.

[masayako]

I do make sure that my landlord DO NOT HAVE ARM. =)

I am serious. I did ask them just to make sure.

masayako

[masayako]

Defense companies are quite safe right now. I have quite a few friends there and they are seeing growth from DHS (Dept of Homeland Security).

[masayako]

I told you guys so.

http://piggington.com/up_and_coming_nokia_job_cut_in_san_diego

Only 500 people will be retained. So, roughly a total of 500+ job will be loss by end of Apr.

I believe majority of the people will be gone by Oct 31, 2006. That’s my assumption.

[Author]

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