Bubble Sellers

[bubba99]

sold in march – about 5% off peak
living on boat waiting to buy back in a few years.

[ybc]

1) Rent
2) No
3) N/A
4) news, independent analysis, Piggingtons
5) N/A
6) N/A
7) No. But don’t like the price that I see here. I’d leave San Diego if not for my job here, which is a nice one. Moved here in late 2001, no sense of urgency to buy at the time. After two years in apartment, prices were already too high for my taste. Started to rent houses instead.

[socalarm]

in LA, listing this weekend. i know. too late, but i couldn’t do this before for other reasons…i can stay if the offers are too low and keep the property permanently so i’m not that scared (yet)…self-employed

[greekfire]

1. Rent
2. N/A
3. N/A
4. When I saw homes that were once selling for <$200, were selling for over $600K 3-5 years later.
5. I would like to purchase in Carlsbad if/when the price is right
6. N/A
7. I could've easily bought back in 1999, but held out for something more. I had no idea the market was going to increase as much and as fast as it did. I could've easily bought in 2003, but knew the market prices were inflated and decided to wait it out.

1. Me and the Mrs. have said that we'll wait for a couple years to see how things go. If they don't improve much, we will move to Colorado, New York, or Maine.

Mat

[zk]

1)Rent
2)Sold in Dec. ’04 (Closed Feb ’05)
3)Before the peak. Actually between peaks in ’04 and ’05. Similar homes in CV might’ve gotten 3-4% more later in ’05 or earlier in ’04. I’m not sure what the median numbers would say about that, but I followed the market closely, and the numbers above are more accurate than any “published” numbers.
4)I remembered 1990 (I lost a bit on a house then). Uncanny how people my age (45) don’t remember very clearly what happened then. I sold a house in ’02 right before I bought the one in CV, and we actually considered not getting back into the market then, thinking prices were out of whack. Who knew prices would nearly double again! When we sold in ’04, we were going to move down to a smaller house, but decided to stay out of the market this time. Piggington’s was a staple of the voluminous and wide-ranging research I was doing at the time in trying to decide whether to buy or wait.
5)Yes.
6,7)N/A

[SD Realtor]

1) Both. I rent and I own 1 detached home and 2 condos.
2) Tried to sell the home in fall of 05 but didn’t get the price I wanted.
3) Inconclusive. In my opinion the peak varies by neighborhood. In Talmadge where my home is the peak was spring of 04.
4) My own analysis.
5) No… want to get closer to the beach.
6) No
7) I will buy when I think we are closer to the bottom. I need to see inventory level out, and the number of sales start to increase or at least stop decreasing.

[FormerOwner]

1) Currently rent
2) Yes; we sold because we felt that prices had topped out
3) We sold at the peak for our area (Q1 ’06)
4) Independent thought followed by research and reading many blogs/magazines/articles/books to understand what was really going on and why
5) No; I want to be in a more walkable community with less traffic
6) N/A
7) N/A, but prices would have to drop to a point that buying costs no more than renting. Prices would have to drop about 55% if rents stay where they are! I expect *some* increase in rents so I’ll keep re-evaluting everythig that’s going on as time goes on. I’m not in any rush to buy and wouldn’t mind remaining a renter either.

[SellandWait]

1) Renting
2) Sold Feb 06 ( Bought @ 270K sold @ 930K
3) Sold 3%-5% off peak. ( also sold rental in June 05 )
4) Had a gut feeling back in 2003 that we had peaked. Found Piggington in March 06. It has been a great source of comfort reading and learning from others on this site. Also,
love the the data driven, level headed approach!
5) No ( Looking in same general area though )

[smfj]

1) rent
2) No, never owned (27); thought about buying a few times, but never felt comfortable doing it
3) n/a
4) When I realized that it was (significantly) cheaper to rent than to buy; saw resemblance to tech boom starting in 2004, but went through some periods of doubt; fully convinced piggington devotee since summer ’05
5) If I’m still in SD, will buy in Cardiff; love South Park but work in Carlsbad; miss family/friends/certain aspects of lifestyle back east
6) n/a
7) A mortgage broker would say I haven’t been priced out, but I disagree – I’d have to sacrafice a lot to buy. I’m not bitter though- I love my home, I love that I live comfortably and that I’m watching my savings account grow. If and when I see a place that I love and that I can afford, I’ll buy it.

[NotARocketScientist]

1) Own
2) No. We buy low and hold.
3) n/a
4) My folks taught me good. They bought their first rentals in the early 70s slump. We bought our house in the mid 80s slump. We were ready to buy again during the great mid 90s slump but new babies kept us distracted. No matter. Slumps are like buses, if you miss one there’s always another coming. Just sock away the cash and enjoy life in the mean time. And BTW — don’t get sore at the people who deny there’s a bubble. They make the froth that inflates the bubble that causes the collapse that produces overshoot that allows us to buy an affordable property.
5) No, we buy rentals where it’s zoned R2 or higher.
6) Nah, we love this neighborhood. We love this house. I enjoy taking trips to Home Despot to keep it running.
7) I would like to see at least a 30 percent drop but suspect it will go further. Especially if we get any combination of the earthquakes/riots/fires/mudslides/county bankruptcies/recessions we have always had before…

When Newsweek prints a cover with the headline “CALIFORNIA — NO LONGER GOLDEN?” it is usually the right time to buy.

[masayako]

1. Currently renting
2. Yes
3. Sold May 06 (6% off peak price)
4. Independent analysis, Piggingtons, neighborhood comps. (Can’t trust the news these days)
5. No. Will buy a better and bigger house with 30% discount
6. N/A
7. N/A

[Chris Johnston]

Chris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.com

Great Post

1)Renting
2) Sold Aug 2005
3) Sold at the peak in OC almost exactly bought for 700k sold for 1.9M
4) Independent analysis – mostly due to cyclical research as well as realizing I had to high a % of my assets in one place. I had also determined that I did not want to live there the rest of my life.
5) Probably will not move back to Newport Coast – looking for horse property with an ocean view, so I will go wherever that leads me, once I get back into the market. SD Realtor, I will enlist your services once the time is right.

[mydogsarelazy]

1) Do you currently rent or own your residence?

Own

2) Did you sell your residence in the last two years because you thought prices had topped out?

We put a deposit on our new home in November 2003. By the time we closed escrow on in in August 2004, our existing home had appreciated more than 100k over what we had expected to sell it for, and our new home had appreciated — at least on paper — about the same amount.

We sold our existing home for triple what my wife had paid for it in 1996, and used the proceeds towards the down payment on our new home, new furnishings and a new car for which we paid cash.

In July of 2005 I sold my vacation home and acreage in the High Desert for six times what I had paid for it in 2001.

3) Did you sell before the peak, at the peak or after the peak (give percentages)?

I would say that we sold our home for about 90-95% of peak value, and our vacation place sale was perfectly timed.

4) How did you come the conclusion there was a bubble (from a friend, news, independent analysis, Piggingtons)?

I had been through the cycle of prices going down in the early 90’s and always felt that this boom would have a bust sooner or later.

5) Will you buy back into your former neighborhood?

We bought our house because it is in an area with great schools and only 15 minutes from where I work. We plan to live here at least until my retirement in another 15 years and very likely longer.

6) If you have not sold, are considering doing so?

No plans to sell. We have a small 15 year fixed mortgage — which we may pay off in ten years — and love the house. Because of the appreciation we captured during the boom years, we live in a McMansion on a Love Shack mortgage.

7) If you have not owned in the last ten years (or ever) is it because you were priced out? How far would prices have to drop for you to be able to buy?

[La Jolla Renter]

1. Rent
2. Have yet to buy primary residence although own some nice investment property that cashflows and I am not planning to sell.
3. N/A
4. My bubble conclusion was based off of fundamentals and always being a contrarian to the average Joe(s). When I purchased a car in 2003 with cash and the salesman said I should take the 2.9% financing and invest in a couple of new construction flippers, I sensed the nasdaq in 2000 all over again. When a friend, 47, with no retirement savings, sold his home in 2003 to buy 4 more to paint carpet and flip, I sensed a bubble. (He is now under water and has lost the 200k in equity he would have had by staying put.) I could go on and on but you get the point.
5. N/A
6. N/A
7. I plan to buy a $2M (peak bubble price) home in La Jolla for about 1.3M in about a year. I am the epitome of the “Millionaire Next Door Type” who just happens to rent. If the La Jolla bubble never pops, I may rent until I can pay mostly cash for a house. I actually like renting, it’s nice to only go to home depot about once a year. I do have to put up with a lot of sh!t from my buddies who enjoy mocking the renter.

[speedingpullet]

1) Renting – a nice 2b/2b SFR in Van Nuys. Despite it being the The Valley, we feel lucky in comparison with friends trying to find rentals in L.A at the moment – few and expensive.

2) Never owned here. Technically I now ‘own’ my mother’s flat in London, but am in the process of selling it as the Executrix of her will. And, after 6 offers in two weeks, hoping to exchange contracts before the UK housing bubble pops…

3) Judging from what I’ve read, UK prices are still going up, so have no idea what the peak will be over there. In any case I’m more interested in selling it, whatever the market conditions, as I want to use the money to invest/buy over here next year.

4) I’m a long time internet junkie, so came across Patrick’s blog sort of by mistake (back when it wasn’t subscription). From there I followed links to other HB blogs, and discovered the splendid Piggingtons!

5) Would love to buy something over on the Westside – Van Nuys summers are brutal – but now have a financial cushion. So, we’re looking for something a bit less built up than Santa Monica/West L.A. Until my mother’s passing, it looked like the only things we could afford would be condos.

6) see 2)

7) Since returning to the US in 2000 we’ve steadily been priced out.
Had we the money,we should have bought in 2000, but were dealing with relocation expenses (and culture shock) and didn’t have enough for a downpayment (always will be a 20% down, 15/30 yr fixed kinda gal 😉 ).

Every time we thought we’d saved enough, prices would leap up again. Last year we thought long and hard about buying a condo, using the husband’s 401(K) money, and all the perks we could find for first-time buyers, and ARMs, but decided to rent and think about it a little longer. There but for the grace of god, etc….
Now, with a nest egg from my mum’s will and dropping prices, we can actually afford to buy something nice that we want to live in!
We’ll be looking up to a max of about 750K, as that’s what we can realistically afford, and want a place in the hills that is cooler that the San Fernando Valley.

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