[LookoutBelow]

I would like to chime in here also and make a few statements too:
first off Doc, you said you’ve lived here for 50 something years and NEVER saw a “Coastal Living Correction of 50%” or anywhere near that high, well, good news for you!.. you shouldnt feel like you missed it then, because it has NEVER happened, in fact, this current economic climate and govt strategies have never been seen before either. The closest was wayyyyy back in 1929, and whatever the heck the govt has planned, we havent a clue and it might be possible that they dont either! They might just be “reacting” daily. It kinda looks that way from here. The world changes VERY fast now.

As far as home ownership goes, you and SDrealtor have far different “Midwestern American” idea’s than my generation (45 yrs. old) and including the generations behind me too.

I did NOT want to live in my parents house anymore than I wanted to wear my Dad’s old shoes, I want what I want, not be satisfied with what HE wanted or thinks I want. I was and still am capable of deciding what it is that I want for myself.

Is your child not capable of finding his own way ? Is your confidence in him already so low that you think the only way he’ll ever own a home and amount to anything is if YOU give it to him ?
Are you going to saddle him or brain wash your 16 yr old child into thinking he will inherit the “best house in all the world” from your good fortune and or benevolence ?
Im sure you guys will try to use it as leverage with statements like, “Do you want a free house ?” well maybe “IF” you get good grades? Then are going to be picking his future wife for him, telling him what color car he “should” have ? Well…SURPRISE ! ..He wont want it, his cohorts will tell hm how lame that idea of yours is and he will learn to hate that house that YOU’VE grown so attached to.

At what point do you turn him loose in the world and see how far in life and how successful his own good judgement takes him ? Apparently for you and SDRealtor, that point will never get reached for your children.

Your plan of him “raising his family” there needs revision also, I think he’ll be changing diapers in the very same room you did, except he’ll be changing YOURS this time around not his baby’s !

Is that your secret plan ?

My father tried that similar type crap on me too and it backfired, I left at 17 yrs old, I paid for my own college, got started in a completely different career path, got extremely lucky, (but was prepared to recognize the opportunity) and very comfortably retired in my mid to late 30’s. Hell, I retired BEFORE he did and spent more on taxes in each year for the last 8 years than he has EVER seen. I retired from my profession and sold 2 very successful small companies that I started plus sold all of my real estate 2 years ago because my common sense told me it was topped out and get out NOW.

I am digressing…my apologies.

Are you trying to “rationalize” your real estate purchase by citing all of these fantasies of “giving” your home to your son ?
A person can be inundated by too much superfulous data, at some point he’s going to have to use his own good judgement (if possessed) and make a move, win, lose or draw. Nothing worse than paralysis from analysis, or brain cramps.

Why do you visit this site ? It seems pretty rosy in your world, this must seem all doom and gloom….

If you believe SD/SoCal real estate will experience no more than a 10% decline over the next couple of years, despite all the data, history and trends, well, I believe thats being blinded by what Greenspan calls “Irrational Exuberance” and my opinion counts for exactly nothing. But I felt it needed to be said.

I have absolutely NO intentions of insult or snideness, if it at all it appears that way, my apologies now, it was NOT ever intended.

[LookoutBelow]

Oh my……..PowaySeller your the love of my mind’s life.

In all seriousness, your a VERY clear, well informed thinker and see things for what they really are. EVERYTHING said can be documented, verified and proven, its not PowaySeller’s speculation, its pure, cold unemotional facts.

THATS what smart investing is all about, not emotional hype, media slant or “personal feelings”.

Will you marry me PowaySeller ?

[LookoutBelow]

Hahaaa ! It must the “aluminum foil hat” I wear in public ! The realtors leave me alone thinking im as weird as I look. Hahaaa !

[LookoutBelow]

I think people need to reevaluate their desires to own ANYTHING especially as expensive as a house. the question is “why” ?

The tax savings are ridiculous,theres no reason to own for tax benefits. Spend 3 to save 1 dollar?, not a very wise investment in my mind.

Because you just want to “own” ? ..What is the logic of that? its not logical, its emotional and stems from decades of programming that people feel this way. You can literally ONLY own what you can physically defend in wary times, and homes are usually not one of them. Unless you possess an army or at least a well manned well stocked arsenal.

When SD real estate, and all of SoCal for that matter start their slide into oblivion, then all bets are off on how low they will go. Whether you subscribe to “Keynesian” or “Von Mises” (Austrian) economics, the “Race to the Bottom” will be the key as both disciplines describe it. It could and I believe, WILL go very, very low.
Im 80% certain that we will experience a “unveiled” world wide depression soon, in fact we are already in it, and have been since 2003 or so. Its been hidden from view for 2-3 years now by tricks of the Fed and the Govt’s “plunge protection team”

Iam not an alarmist, but this is decidely an “Alarmists” point of view. When people started filling the lifeboats on the Titanic, even then the most optimistic “rose colored glasses” passengers and crew could no longer Poo-Poo the idea that they were sinking and ignoring those few overreactionary, doom and gloom people as only “Alarmists”, no! Not anymore, now these so called “alarmists” were called “Realists” and some of the very few ones that survived, were then called “Survivalists”

The coming economic times will be no different. Dollar/currency collapses, wars, runaway inflation or deflation, oil shortages, multi national corporations, crooked book keeping, corruption, unbridled greed, it all adds up to dire straits for not only the USA, but the world at large, to believe otherwise would be sillyness while wearing those rose colored glasses. Cognitive dissonance reigns supreme, people dont listen to bad news. These times will be no different than 1929, and it will be worse this time.

So to answer the question: “How low will it go for SD real estate prices?” It will go so low low you wont believe it, when it starts its slide, it will be QUICK….Im referred to as the “Prince of Darkness” in my friendly group, but I will NOT be one of the MANY who will be caught with my pants down in the coming times. Common sense will go a LOT further than graphs, speculation, comparisons etc.

Now I must put my aluminum foil hat back on, the aliens are trying to communicate with me again and I dont want to hear it ! lol hahaaaa !

Google up Mogambo Guru fror more info on this “alarming” forecast, if you can handle the truth.

[LookoutBelow]

Futures trading is dangerous stuff, dont play unless you got a LOT to lose.

Gold is HIGHLY overvalued and speculated up to the point of sillyness, it cost NO MORE to mine that sutff than it did 5 years ago, there is no shortage of it and central banks of the world have been divesting themselves of it for the last couple of years.

Just like oil/fuel. Heavy speculators looking for suckers.

WHats difference between gambling and investing ? I almost forgot ?

[LookoutBelow]

I had no idea Poway seller was a woman ? I am duly impressed by her clear and concise retorts.

You Da (Wo)Man !!

LOL
(PS I want her for her great mind…..)

[LookoutBelow]

EXCELLENT observation by 4plexowner, however you missed one point, the people you have tried to educate WILL NOT suddenyl realize you were right when real estate crashes, NO, they will have completely forgotten about what you said in 2005, to admit to themselves you were in fact right, would go against their bloated self ego’s.

They are FULLY subconsciously aware of their predicament, its called “Cognitive Dissonance” or, in the book “1984” it was referred to as “Doublethink”…the constant mental anguish caused by holding and believing two opposite beliefs at the same time.

One must know thyself before he can trust himself to purchase anything in a bubble atmosphere.

Shit, ? thats pretty snappy! I might have just coined a NEW phrase…..you heard it here first

Cheers,

B

[LookoutBelow]

Pessimistic ? are you serious ?

Its not “pessimism…its REALITY ! The numbers are there, just look.

What your experiencing is “Cognitive Dissonance”.

[LookoutBelow]

Just like a Bad Movie ! The actors take full responsibility for a movie that some hair brained director/producer has put together, but hey, the realtors have no skills, other than lies, talk and bad comps, although they like to refer to themselves as “Brain Surgeons” laughingly they are as necessarry as crotch crabs !

If you have something for sale that is priced fairly, you dont NEED to have anybody “sell” it for you, for the fair price, there are plenty of “buyers”.. only when your trying to gouge a “sucker” do you need some R.E. pimp to hype up your property. as a seller, you also can tell a chiseler to F…..Off if he trys to rip you off with his purchase offer, no silly realtors necessarry.

They all think they’re donald trump, what jerk he is, reality is cruel to those who over value their importance.

C230 MB’s, 2 cell phones, magnetic stickers on their cars, cheesy ads, over whitened teeth, they like to reference themselves as “professionals” Hah ! what ever happened to higher education (college) … Not necessarry for a realtor, hell, I know some that were landscapers before they got their psuedo license….yeah right ! Thats the requirements for a Realtor “professional” !

What a scam industry. Hahaaaa !

[LookoutBelow]

Totally agree. I have personally talked 3 friends of mine out of buying hideously overpriced SD real estate in the last 3-5 weeks. I am proud of myself and they are feeling like they dodged a bullet that had their name on it !

After I pointed out the facts to them, they breathed a heavy sigh of relief and put their checkbooks away when they saw the reality of it all.

Friends dont let friends buy SD real estate.

[LookoutBelow]

This clown cracks me up ! He’s almost as bad as that other idiot Don King at self promotion. I especially “dig” his 1969 haircut, hahaaa. I saw him on TV the other day at some silly golf tournament and he is a COW !! Its a wonder how TV, if camera angles are right, can make even slob blowhards like Trump look acceptable. I knew his late brother and he couldnt stand him, he literally almost got sick at the mention of his name.

He has entered the “Weird Club”…. clubmates are as listed, but not limited to:
Michael Jackson
Boy George (paints his fat underchin black in hopes we dont see it)
Donald Blowhard Trump
Most hollyweird movie stars
PeeWee Herman
etc…. add to the list as you see fit

[LookoutBelow]

This IS EXACTLY how the “race to the bottom” gets started.

I certainly wouldnt put it in your 401K or the market in general, thats a rigged game too, Lots of very smart people are expecting some SERIOUS declines by year end…I mean real serious declines. CD’s if anything.

Did it ever occur to you during the last refi or even during the original purchase, that its WAY over valued ?

I sold everything I owned in SD real Estate in 2003, I happily rent now. In my book and at my age, ANYTHING that seems too good to be true…..Usually IS.

[Author]

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