May 16, 2006 at 8:10 PM #6606
The other threads were getting too long, so I thought whenever a thread becomes wieldy, we could post replies on a new thread. This is a continuation of my assertion that housing prices in SD will fall 50%.
Per Shiller’s research as explained on OfTwoMinds.com, San Francisco prices must correct by 56%, from $715K to $315K. Expect the same for San Diego.May 16, 2006 at 9:28 PM #25500KingKongParticipant
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“May 17, 2006 at 9:24 AM #25511
Could it be more than that?
When there is a downturn, the prices often go below the historical mean.
When housing crashed in LA in the late 80s, I knew a person who paid 850,000 (they had a lot of $) and when it was all over, the house sold for 400,000.
BTW, Powayseller, maybe we ARE twins.May 17, 2006 at 10:27 AM #25513AnonymousGuest
The book Sell Now has some interesting points in it. I am reading it right now. He focuses on inflation adjusting in everything. When doing this, it makes things even more out of whack than they appear on the surface.
I have thought about a 30% drop would occur. The info in this book makes me consider that it might be more than that.May 17, 2006 at 10:51 AM #25516
I think there could easily be some markets that drop 50% and others that may only drop 20%. Some areas were much hotter than others in SD. The highs also took place at different times. I had a house in Ramona. It looks like the peak there might have been late spring 2005. We have friends in Rancho Bernardo and their house peaked in late spring and has fallen from 650k to 590K already. Prices in Coronado peaked August/September while it looks like prices in Imperial Beach peaked later than that.
I know of a guy in Coronado who is trying to sell his house for 2.6M. I know for a fact that he had an offer in August that was only 20K away from his asking price. He walked away. His house has been empty since last summer and he has had to pay mortgage and prop taxes for an additional 9 months because of 20K difference. His house has been for sale for a year.
I know of another house that has been for sale since at least Jan 2005. They started out asking 3.2M. Then they raised it it to 3.4M. Then they raised it to 3.6m – 4.2M. Yesterday there was an addition to to the for sale sign – REDUCED.
How low are these houses going to go? How many people can afford 2.5M for a house? Not many. The smaller your pool of buyers, the riskier it gets.May 17, 2006 at 10:53 AM #25517AnonymousGuest
Slightly off topic – I am planning on adding an extension to my house next year. Given all the reports of the housing slowdown (forget the imminent crash we are discussing here) and talk of layoffs in the construction/building business, do you think it makes sense to put off the work another year or two? Even though we are planning on the work being done in a year, we need to start getting bids soon (of course, given how *busy* all these guys claim they are now).May 17, 2006 at 11:07 AM #25519
I would probably wait a year. Construction materials are very expensive right now because of all the building. Those prices might come down with a reduction in demand. Plus, I think there are going to be a lot of construction people frantic for work in a year.May 17, 2006 at 11:16 AM #25522
PD, from now on, I will just write “yes, what PD said”, because I agree with everything you say. All excesses overcorrect on the way down, and the chart on the Bubble Primer shows this. We will overshoot to 50% correction before we come back up to the baseline. That’s my prediction.May 17, 2006 at 11:18 AM #25523
John Talbott has extreme views, for sure. I e-mailed him, and we conversed a couple times. I disagree with his take on inflation. He believes the CPI figures are accurate, and I don’t. He believes inflation has been burned out of the system, and many of his assumptions are made on that premise. He did not respond to my last e-mail in which I argued why inflation is higher than the 2% government reported figure. Maybe he thought I was right and was speechless, maybe he thought I was clueless and didn’t want to waste his time with me, who knows?May 17, 2006 at 11:19 AM #25524anParticipant
Wow, that’s much more than I imagined. I know people in the low range in SD that drop from 160k to 120k. I guess the high end tend to drop more?May 17, 2006 at 11:20 AM #25525
That’s what I was going to say, too.
I swear, PD is not a pseudonym for powayseller…May 17, 2006 at 11:50 AM #25527
Powayseller, maybe we are twins and were switched at birth… are you 5’3″ too?
My dad had a Ph.d. in Bionuclear Physics. I’ve heard that an unknown Bionuclear physicist donated many of times to a sperm bank. Maybe it was my dad and you are a long lost sibling…? 🙂May 17, 2006 at 12:24 PM #25529speakerParticipant
If home vales dropped 50% in the SF By Area, I am quite certain there would be a meltdown of nuclear (nuk-klar) proportions.
There are Democrats and there are liberals, but the people of SF (especially Marin) are borderline anarchists.
I had to leave the SF Bay area in the middle of the night after I made some off the cuff positive comment about the Prez.
“End of line.”May 17, 2006 at 12:32 PM #25530
Are you talking rioting in the streets? I’m now having visions of high heeled she-men rolling over police cars.May 17, 2006 at 12:48 PM #25535
5’3″, yup. Dad is a doctor, doing research. Born in Germany…
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