San Diego Housing Market = Dead Zone, 67% overpriced !!!

[sdduuuude]

That 50% nominal or real?

i.e. a $500,000 house now will actually cost $250,000 at the bottom of the market

or

$250,000 x ((1 + inflation) ^ #years)
at the bottom of the market?

[sdduuuude]

Forrester’s World Model predicted that the earth’s population would peak around 5 billion, then fall off to 3 or 4 billion. Running various forms of the model would move those numbers up and down, but the result was always the same – peak population, followed by a fall, then steady state.

Perhaps the great coming depression is related to this factor.

[powayseller]

Chris is a skilled analyst with insight.

“gullible” “fall for someone” “touted” don’t “know anything” about him
Score: -2 for sdr’s name calling, +2 powayseller for not calling names back

Now let’s get back to work.

[powayseller]

Nominal, bec. I’m not considering inflation. For the reason given, that wages rose w/ inflation so housing was actually rising with wages. I wonder if that’s true,, and we could see this in a chart. Wages will be flat, so no housing price increases due to wage increases.

[powayseller]

Wow, I sound like an optimist compared to you 🙂 Two points. First, you have courage to make bold statements like this. And two, why doesn’t the realtor pick on you for your views which are even more alarming than my own?

[LookoutBelow]

Hahaaa ! It must the “aluminum foil hat” I wear in public ! The realtors leave me alone thinking im as weird as I look. Hahaaa !

[RightSide]

Wages are NOT flat!

They were up over 9% last year, they are tracking to be up another 8% this year.

Wages have far outpaced infalation and continue to do so.

Oh darn those facts, I hate when they get in the way of my distorted view of reality.

Rich, at 9% wage growth, how long for the I to catch up to the P?

[powayseller]

The Economic Policy Institute reports that inflation-adjusted hourly and weekly wages are still below the level of November 2001.

Where’d you get the 9% data?

[RightSide]

I get an institutional economic analysis that takes data straight from the treasury: It is national, not regional so I don’t know how it differs for SD area…

http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/

This is real-time data and is hard #’s.

Often one of the reason individual investors get fleeced in the market is that they don’t get the right factual data.

[RightSide]

Yes. By looking at the amount of money actually withheld as taxes you can get a very clear picture of actual wages. What’s really amazing, is that there is another category of income “other then withheld” which is basically independent contractors and business owners (a person who owns an s-corp for example has to file quarterly estimates via a k-1) are up well over 20% yoy.

Our economy is on fire!!!

[powayseller]

Are you able to get the W-2 wages, or do you get total income, which can include capital gains?

Corporations are definitely “on fire”, and flush with cash, and thus the K-1 increase makes sense.

[Author]

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