[kev374]

thanks I did say I am open and flexible to all discussions later on in the process, the reason I gave a range is that if they are rigid then it isn’t worth my time or theirs to continue. The range they gave was A > B and I countered with B > C, so I started at their top end so they know they need to offer around that point and then my idea was to negotiate a bit higher than B.

But yes, your response seemed like a good answer, I was just concerned about scaring them away with it being so vague. “All salary considerations” could mean I accept their range as well and then they may balk if I ask for something outside of their original range. May even get pissed as to why I continued when they had stated the range.

As I said it threw me off a little as in the past no employer has thrown numbers around before the offer. They do ask for desired salary but i’ve been able to deflect it but they do not say we’re offering between A and B is that fine? This is a first – their exact question was “Are you open to an offer within the specified salary range”.

[kev374]

[quote=flu]
I call bullshit on that one. [/quote]

what exactly is bullshit about it? I bought at 251 sold when it reached 260… not rocket science. I did not sell my international holdings or my bonds which are both negative but they will eventually rebound.

My buddy bought $100,000 worth of AMZN 2 years ago at 620, he clocked in a profit of $150,000 in just 2 years for doing virtually nothing… he sold a few shares and bought a new car, GIFTED by Amazon thanks!

Making money in an upmarket, especially the last 2 years with zero volatility was stupidly easy.

The biggest mistake was trying to attempt in buying homes which is a losers game. Should’ve spent more time researching the stock market.

Making money in the stock market is easier than one thinks.. you just need to know how the game is played, much much easier than housing and you don’t need the kind of ridiculous capital that you need to get into housing.

Btw, Huntington Beach is way more expensive than Irvine depending on the exact zip, but even in other parts it’s on par with Irvine. There is no cheap place in Orange County… if you want cheap you have to go to the real ghetto, City of Commerce which is where the nation’s drugs are peddled. The neighborhood is so disgusting that if this was Detroit houses would be selling for $5 or even free, but since it is LA the asking is “only” $500,000 LMAO!

[kev374]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=kev374]I did not invest the bulk of my assets in Jan, I invested a large amount at the bottom of the Feb correction and have been investing in chunks all the way up to now.
[/quote]

You know that the site has logs, right?

I put in my buy order today,
Submitted by kev374 on January 6, 2018 – 9:54am.
I put in my buy order today, VOO @ 251.25 for 1094 shares, total value ~$275,000. I am going to take a bet that the market will be higher end 2018. Even though it’s crazy I think the market has solid momentum.[/quote]

You do realize that securities can be bought and sold right?? I did buy those shares but I sold them all when it hit 260 for a handsome gain and bought back in around 236-245, even Warren Buffet himself could not have timed it more perfectly. While my timing in the housing market sucks looks like it does not quite suck in the stock market, perhaps I should become a trader LMAO! Actually it was a mistake to get out of the market, as the long term philosophy is to stay in which is what I learned from bogleheads.

This time I am in permanently, I am not selling anything even if it goes up!

[kev374]

I did not invest the bulk of my assets in Jan, I invested a large amount at the bottom of the Feb correction and have been investing in chunks all the way up to now.

However, if you listen to the vast majority of Financial experts, including Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, you will notice that they frown upon timing the markets but rather adopt a long term strategy of “time in the market vs timing the market”. I learned a lot at the bogleheads forum from long term investors and noted that most regular people know nothing about investing or the markets. Waiting for a bottom is the absolute wrong thing to do when it relates to long term investing because markets are notoriously difficult to predict and more often than not you will time the top incorrectly and in addition time the bottom incorrectly too and lose on both ends.

Getting back to houses – it is good to have reasonable expectations but buying a home is a long term, very expensive and important purchase. I know some people who have bought the wrong type of home and have been extremely unhappy that they are paying so much money for a place and worse – are locked in to a contract that is very difficult and expensive to get out of (realtors commission etc.) that did not meet their basic requirements. They bought thinking they would just get into the door but it was more difficult to get out than they thought due to various reasons including rising values of homes and also a re-establishment of higher cost basis for taxes.

For me, I would like at least 1500sqft of living space so I can be future proof to some extent, a 2 car garage, a lower HOA ($250/mo or so is fine, some properties in OC have $500-700/mo HOAs which I find laughable!) so that if I pay off the home I don’t still have ridiculous monthly payments, no mello roos for the same preceding reasoning – some places have ridiculous atrocious mello roos for 30-50 years!!! location in a good area – I rent currently in a good area so why do you think I would significantly LOWER my standard of living and in exchange significantly RAISE my monthly payment? That makes no sense whatsoever.

To me a dream home is a pool, 2500sqft, 3 car garage, upper class neighborhood, probably some kind of view etc. A 1500sqft 3 bedroom, 2 car garage in a middle class neighborhood is not a dream home – give me a break! Yet, these “starter” homes still cost $800,000 with astronomical ongoing monthly expenses. No thanks, that is a BAD deal!

A final key fact is that I am a single income, so I can take less risk than say a dual income couple who has 2 distinct sources of income.

So, having my money in the stock market – yes I can sleep at night because I know I have a buffer and I know even if I lose some money upfront now it will rebound eventually. Buying a astronomically expensive house with astronomical monthly expenses, it would cause me tremendous stress and I would not be able to sleep at night… so at least for me the former is the choice I made, not the latter.

[kev374]

[quote=flu]futures way down with trade war escalation.

stabilization of the markets my ass.

Gold on the other hand….[/quote]

S&P is up as we speak and it has bounced off the 200 DMA which is a key technical.

As for buying a home..i’m not against real estate in general but I am against buying it at these prices as it represents a greater risk than the stock market.

Your thinking is not accurate in my opinion that the stock market has risk… stocks have wild gyrations in the short term but over a long period 10-15 years stocks have always been a super bet…infact Case-Shiller analysis has documented that investing in equities is far superior than investing that capital in a house.

Buying a home at a 40-50% DTI which people very frequently do these days is exceptionally risky. There used to be a reasonable DTI in the past decades, 28% Front end ratio, all that is blown out of the water these days because banks themselves don’t follow it. There are plenty of people who blindly sign anything the banks give them, then they cry like victims saying the bank made them do it. No personal responsibility for guaging affordability on their own… a ton of people think they can afford it because the bank told them so which does make them idiots.

I think you fail to understand that a starter home (1500sqft with 2 car garage in Irvine) costs $800,000, even with a 20% down (which is a ridiculous $200k and would consume most people’s entire savings if they even have such a down.. everyone does not have rich Chinese parents!) with the plethora of fees HOAs, Mello Roos, City taxes etc. the increased expenses for maintenance, furnishing the home, fixing other stuff etc. etc. with such leverage you are one step away from bankruptcy if you lose your job. And since all your savings is now in your home (downpayment) you lose that as well.

With stocks at least I can sell my stocks even at a loss… and for the record, I am diversified, I have bonds as well which is the beauty of investing in stocks, I can buy any amount I want. I can’t buy half a house.

Buying a home in the current environment is an extremely bad financial move, just my opinion, of course you have yours. Just because I waited for things to come down and they didn’t does not mean I was wrong on concept, overvaluations and bubbles can last a very long time.

Yes, eventually your home will come back up in value through a severe downcycle but it’s much more likely you will lose your home and will not be able to ride out a hard time than having your money in stocks and being able to ride it out. As I said I have six figures in bonds which could tide me over for a few years in an absolute emergency. If I put all my money down for a home I would be seriously F-ked!

[kev374]

[quote=flu]
it’s just interesting to observe one transform from being an uber bear in the housing and stock market for so many years (close to a decade) suddenly is a stock market permabull, at precisely the moment when the stock market was at an all time high, when a sizeable speculation was made.[/quote]

??? the market is what it is… I still don’t believe in housing, I think housing is in a bubble. There is a huge difference between investing in stocks and buying a home. Buying a home is done with debt which I may not be able to repay if there is a huge recession. If stocks tank I will still be ok and will be able to ride it out.

Given the cost of homes and the burn rate required even for a shack these days unless you are a wealthy SOB you will lose everything in a major recession – this is fine with most people but not with me. Most people are idiots who did exactly that and lost it all in 2008 but they will never learn and make big bets that they cannot sustain and then think they are doing great… wait till all of them lose their homes.

[kev374]

market is stabilizing nicely today, looks like we bounced off the 200 DMA and now heading higher.

The brief period of consolidation on Monday was perhaps healthy as it took off some excesses caused by Trump’s ridiculous nonsense and now the market has had Trump fatigue so they can tune him out and we can focus on earnings season coming up driving the markets to recapture the old high and go higher.

The original forecast that most had was S&P 3000 by year end and that still looks likely given fundamentals.

[kev374]

market is down only 11%, hardly a house of cards crashing… when we lose 30% then we can talk about a crash, but right now it’s bullish.

[kev374]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=kev374]nothing to worry as long as it’s over the 200 dma, s&p500 2585.[/quote]

Did you say that 2585 was a resistance level?[/quote]

yes, S&P broke a key resistance level today but only by a few points. We will see where this goes. Market is oversold per fundamentals but investors are panicking because lunatic in chief is tweeting all sorts of nonsense every day.

[kev374]

very bearish sentiment around here when it comes to stocks and very bullish on housing.. seems strange to me as I think if equities do poorly it will affect housing but this is a housing forum so…

[kev374]

April boost +1.5% monthly gain forecasted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/30/stocks-should-see-a-spring-boost-in-april-says-lpls-ryan-detrick.html

Frankly I think we have tested the bottom and we are heading to 3000.

[kev374]

massive rally today! this could be the breakout to the upside that we were waiting for 😉

[kev374]

200 dma is holding on the S&P500 despite tech being down, impressive! The bulls are not backing down.

[kev374]

nothing to worry as long as it’s over the 200 dma, s&p500 2585.

[kev374]

Massive rally today, looks like the 200 dma provided solid support for the S&P500 and we may go higher to break out of the correction. Trade concerns which was the main issue are waning.

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