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JJGittes
ParticipantSorry, but I don’t get the trade up scenario. Say you buy a condo at the bottom (good luck calling the bottom though). Then it appreciates and you walk away with $200k in profit. Then you go to buy your dream home. Well, guess what, while your condo was appreciating your dream home was appreciating too, and maybe even at a faster rate than your condo. How are you any better off? In fact, your tax basis will be that much more than it would have been years ago on the dream house. Yeah, I guess you could buy a few low end properties with suicide loans and cross your fingers for the highly leveraged appreciation. But unless you are rich already, if that plan goes south you could be financially screwed for decades — like half the people in the inland empire and southbay are now.
Now, if your salary goes up substantially faster than inflation in the intervening years of condo ownership, then the trade up could obviously be doable since you can handle a bigger mortgage.
ParticipantI also watch N County coastal. I see sale prices below their summer 2004-2005 peak, but there have been a ton of houses that have gone pending in the last 6 weeks or so. Pretty much every nice, somewhat newer house in the mid-700′ to mid-800’s has gone into escrow. The older/rougher stuff continues to sit though. I am surprised by the activity, but I can’t deny the facts. However, I still doubt there will be serious upside to the market for several years. Yet I seem to keep getting surpised by the market.
ParticipantDuring the Dot-com bubble days Greenspan should have raised margin requirements to 100%. The housing bubble was/is a repeat of the Dot-com bubble. Lots of spec buying fueled by crazy low interest rates. Only difference is that, at least in desirable places to live — like SD — the underlying asset probably won’t go to zero. (In Detroit it effectively has gone to zero.) But it doesn’t need to for lots of reckless people and their stupid bankers to get deservedly hammered.
Participantsdrealtor,
Good info. I too watch N. County coastal, mailnly 92011, 92009, and 92024. Seems like MANY houses have gone pending in the last month or two. In fact, just about every house that was built in the 90’s/00’s in a nice neighborhood that looked decent has gone pending. Prices seem to be down from the peak, but still pretty darn solid. I don’t know where we are going, but the areas I watch are not withering. Are you seeing the same?ParticipantWashinton state — no state income tax, and between the coast and inland, you should be able to find a climate you can stand.
If you are climate sensitive, you may be stuck with coastal Calif.
ParticipantUnless there are bidding wars that drive up listed prices, that # could be coming down. Anybody want to predict a coming bidding war in SEH??
ParticipantIt is wierd. I don’t think there was ever a sign (I live near), and that house was positively never listed on any of the sites as up for sale, until it went on the prud. site as pending, with the 05…..#. Perhaps a private sale with prud. doing the paperwork? Or realtor shenanigans…?
ParticipantSales of existing homes jump:
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2007/02/27/D8NI4NIG0.html
This seems consistent with my casual observations of homes around me in coastal north county (encinitas, carlsbad). It seems that many have gone pending in the last 4-6 weeks.
Dead cat bounce? Micro rally? Whatever, there is some buying going on.
ParticipantActually, the records I found showed a purchase price of $918k on the Avenida Castana house. Only about 2400sf too. Lots else for sale in that neighborhood in the 8’s also. Ouch.
Nonetheless, the post leading off this thread was a good one for keeping the debate interesting. Too much one sided bearishness and people will get bored and start using this site to whine about global warming, Bush, the war, yada yada.
ParticipantSD Realtor
The seller signed up to pay X commission when he listed, right? So I guess the downside to using a lawyer to write the offer for a flat fee is not potentially getting some of the commission in rebate form thats going to be paid anyway. No?
However, I guess you could use the lawyer, submit a lowball, note in the offer that there is no commission to be paid to any buyers agent thus the # is low, and thereby put the screws to the listing agent to cut his client some slack to make the deal happen.
ParticipantI went out there. The MR are high, the lots are very small, and the HOA will be steep. They even had 3 story model out there with the family room on the third floor. My wife got a good laugh out of that one. I can only image how bad the commute will be when it is all built up out there. Its over 4 miles from the 56 up to Del Sur. And then you crawl on the 56 to I-5. Ugh.
On the bright side, the schools will have good scores.
ParticipantIs the rebate taxable income? Seems like it probably would be. I doubt redfin or zip or buyside would want to pay taxes on the whole nut.
Perhaps it might be better to reduce the purchase price by that amount instead, if the deal can be crafted that way?
ParticipantYeah, but think about the liability you could incur if you didn’t have that rocket scientist guiding you through the minefield of the residential real estate transaction.
Also, remember, according to the NAR, Longfellow there will get you up to “16% more for your house…” than going it alone.
ParticipantThe problem is that both “lawyers” (RE agents) in a RE transaction are working on “contingency”, ie getting a cut of the final settlement. Imagine if you went to trial as the defendant with an arrangment that your lawyer would be paid out of the judgment. Even if it was a damages only case where all involved conceded liability from the outset, so some award was a surety, it would be absurd to believe that a conflict did not exist. Yet, this is how the commission structure in RE transactions is set up for a buyer. Absurd.
And yes, it would be cheaper than $24k to have a lawyer do MANY low ball offers. Thats the beauty of Winforms, isn’t it?
And no, I am anything but naive.
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