[JJGittes]

The schools “suck” in that region? Don’t the two elementary schools near the Bay Collection (Aviara and Pacific Rim) both score above 900 on the California API? All the schools in California should “suck” that bad….

[JJGittes]

Anybody used Buyside realty? They apparently rebate 75% of their commission to the buyer. Everything done on-line, and they do not show homes.

However, I think it is probably best if you can simply get the seller to lower the price in an equal amount to the buyer agent commission. Your basis will be lower for prop taxes, and you won’t be tagged with inc. taxes on the commission kickback.

[JJGittes]

Eh, tell her not to sweat it. The toothpaste is out of the tube, i believe, for the traditional RE sales model. If she is in the MLS, the house will be picked up by realtor.com, Coldwell’s site, prudential’s site…pretty much all of them. People are looking on the internet for their own homes these days. If the house appears to be a good deal, and they are serious, buyers will make their way to the front door.

[JJGittes]

So, as has been observed before, the median #’s are still OK, but only because people are getting much more house for the same $, correct? In other words, there are people out there still willing/able to spend, say, $750k on a house in N. County, but the houses they are getting were the $850k+ ones from 1-2 years ago.

Hmm, sounds good, RSF for under a mill’ again.

[JJGittes]

Actually, I just today experienced some bad behavior. My wife called a listing agent this morning to set up an appointment see a house. She was met with the usual avalanche of questions…what is your timeframe?…have you been looking in the area long?….who have you been working with?…and on and on. (Its too bad the agent didn’t use the time to talk up the house.) Then, the agent said the house my wife was calling about was “just listed”. The problem is that the house has been on the market for six months, and was just RE-listed at a lower price. We drive by the property all the time, and we have tracked the property on-line since before December, so we know this to be the case. After being confronted,and then confronted again, the agent admitted it was just relisted. I’m sorry, but flatly lying to someone who you hope to be doing (big) business with is not a way to start things off. Do all agents/brokers do this? I am sure NO, but desperation is causing some ugliness in the rank and file…
Just my 2 cents.

[JJGittes]

So you think a coastal carlsbad house that sold for, say, $850k last summer is going to drop to $510k? Wow, and I thought I was bearish. Absent interest rates going way way way up, or a successful al qaeda attack on the nuke plant up the coast, I just don’t see that happening. Maybe 40% down in temecula, which got truly ridiculous (and the lots there are puny too!) over recent years, but absent some huge ugly event, I don’t see such a drop for Carlsbad.

[JJGittes]

Kudos for at least acknowledging potential viability of such a plan. But I believe it is beyond what most sellers have the time, inclination and knowledge to undertake. According to my friend, the tough part for him was going with a deal that reflected a low reported sale #, even though his ultimate net was in line.

Most people are probably not psychologically up to it, frankly. Though the ones who are, or those who just HAVE to swallow the pill, may be setting the market of the near future however.

Anyway sdrealtor, I enjoy your comments just as much as the ultra-bears comments on this board. Don’t be scared off.

[JJGittes]

Well, the reason I offered the scenario is because my former business partner recently sold his home in orange county by going with a flat fee broker and putting his house in the mls. He priced it at about 3% lower than the (all over-priced) comp houses in his neighborhood up for sale(same models on similar lots), and ended up finding a buyer who was not represented. He had pretty good traffic too because everybody interested in the neighborhood who saw ads for the other houses stopped by his house also when they saw his sign. He made up a good flyer too.

He knocked off another 2% (he signed up for 2.5% to buyers agent) during negotiations. It is about an $800k (current comps) neighborhood, so the buyer felt good that negotiations basically started at $775, and ended up at a sale price of slightly under $760. The seller was happy because he cleared this amount (less escrow/title costs etc), and actually got a QUICK sale. In other words, he netted what he wanted, and what the owners of the over-priced other homes in the neighborhood would net after paying brokers, IF they could actually get a full price sale. Of course the former neighbors w/ houses for sale ain’t so happy. Again though, this guy did some work and had familiarity with the Calif. RE transaction process. Anyway, he is on the sidelines now living a condo looking for future bargains. However, for many folks, I recognize this would be a bit much to orchestrate.

Granted, his risk was that there could be a 2006 summer bounce and the other houses could go for more, but that does not seem likely at this moment.

[JJGittes]

I try to watch the Carlsbad zips, and the 92078 San Marcos zip. My question is: How much (if at all) do you think home values have come down already, since this time last year? It seems like when I do searches on realtor.com or any of the other sites that pick up the mls listings I have been seeing many of the same houses coming up for months. (My wife:”Oh yeah, the one with the ugly kitchen wallpaper…it first appeared in November.”) I have read the comments about sellers being “sticky,” and I agree with that observation.

So, again, I guess my question is, how much will these homes on the market now listed at last spring/summer-type prices have to be lowered to actually sell? 5%, 10%, more? Seems like buyers in the $700k and up territory feel strength, and are going to drive some hard bargains.

[JJGittes]

Really, right now in the San Diego area I think going w/o a broker, or with a discount flat fee broker is the only way you can squeak out of a property with gains similar to what you would have got a year ago. By that I mean that buyers with any brains smell blood in the water and expect good deals now. For a seller, the best fat to excise from a deal first is the 5-6% agent commission, or at least half of it. So, the strategy would be to use a flat fee broker to put it in the mls at 2-3% to buyer agent, price it 2-3% lower than you otherwise would have (since you are not paying a seller agent), and advertise hard to find a buyer yourself and thereby even avoid the buyer agent commission. You may screw your (former) neighbors with the comp you leave behind, but you might still be able to squeak out a net proceed similar to last summer after actually landing a buyer, while other agent represented properties sit. Of course, it all requires some work, and some realism about what your house will truly sell for.

[JJGittes]

Yes, $300-400 a month for MR, plus $600 (assuming an impound) for prop tax on a $700k house (many were more than that), adds up to $1k or more a month, on top of the mortgage (and perhaps HOA of $100+) obviously. Again, ouch!

[JJGittes]

Anybody else watching the San Elijo Hills area of San Marcos? Maybe its my imagination, but it seems like the number of listings in there has really swelled in the last few weeks. And there are still new developments coming on line. Amazing.

Also, anybody ever notice the mello roos and various other assessments on top of prop. tax that they charge in there? Its like a grand a month for taxes and MR, on top of the mortgages. Wow, $12k a year for a cookie cutter stucco box 8 feet from your neighbor. Ugly ugly.

[JJGittes]

sdrealtor,
since you focus on the area, what is your view of 92009 and 92011 right now? I am thinking of selling (need a bigger house), but I am not desparate. After selling, I suppose we could rent for a time, but my spouse would probably not put up with it for too long.
Also, on another note, I am wondering what you folks think about buyer’s agents who hand out “comps” that omit partcular properties (like recent sales of identical models in the same neighborhood) that don’t support their view of what a reasonable offer would be. I had this happen to me last month. I don’t know what made me more angry, the fact that this guy cherry picked the comps, or that he thought I am so stupid that I didn’t know what every house in my development had sold for in the last year. I suppose sellers agents do it in the opposite direct too. I think it is sleazy and unethical, certainly not simply zealous representation. In any event, it’s hard to imagine entering into a big transaction with somebody like that.

[Author]

Posts