Has it reached 2004 prices already?

[SDbear]

3683 Caminito Cielo Del Mar, San Diego, CA 92130
Sale History & Tax Info
Sale History & Tax Info Sale History
02/12/2007: $505,000
05/21/2004: $515,000
07/11/2001: $316,000
No other sale data is available

I saw this on Zillow. At the peak these were probably selling above $600k.

SDRealtor,
What’s with all ur bullish posts? This is one comp I saw with a recorded sale between ’03-’06. So it is easy to see the drop. This does’nt even look like a dead cat bounce to me. That too in a desirable area.

[SD Realtor]

SD Bear –

I do not mean for my posts to be bullish. I am only reporting facts that I see. Please do not interpret them in any other manner.

In many areas prices are actually BELOW 2004 prices. Pretty much condos anywhere fall into that category. Even many many detached homes fall into that category. In my posts I have been consistent in trying to qualify my statements. I will try again…

Scripps Ranch – Very brisk. The active/pending ratio is low and has been that way since January. This is for detached homes.

Parts of 92129 and 92128 – Homes in nicer condition that are in the nicer areas of these areas have gone into escrow very quickly. Why has that happened? I do not know. However I have a few buyers who I have been working with in this area. One in particular who has submitted several offers (lowballs) in the past 3 months and none of them have been taken. Yesterday we submitted an offer on a home in Crestmont (92129) that was a BEATER and had been on the market for 2 days. It already had 3 offers on it.

Same is true for some spots in Carlsbad. I took a very nice couple to an REO property in La Costa (92009) a few days ago and it had only been on the market less then 2 weeks. It is in escrow already as well.

*******
I can 100% say in all my postings I am consistent and say the market is in a secular downtrend. I also always say that let’s see how the market looks later into the summer. I do not say that I am bullish on the market nor do I ever say this is a great time to buy. Please point to a post of mine where I have said that.

What I have been saying consistently all spring is that certain spots, with certain types of housing, have been quite active. I haven’t commented on the sales price, whether it is higher or lower then 2004 in these active areas.

Please point out to me where I have said that so I can post a retraction on that thread.

[SDbear]

SD Realtor,
I meant the other sdrealtor. Sorry for the confusion and thanks for all ur insider inputs.

[sdrealtor]

SDbear,
Other guy here. My view and comments are essentially identical to Adam’s. I just report facts with an occassional hypothesis of what might happen given these facts and what I see anecdotally. Pretty much everything Adam says I agree with pertaining to the market and the market forces at play. I am hardly bullish on the market in the next several years though not as bearish as many around these parts.

SDR

FYI: Sorry but you are a little late! If you check back on my posts I declared we were back at 2004 prices and in some cases late 2003 prices 6 months ago!

[davelj]

Don’t know if you guys saw this regarding the steep drop off in closings over the last couple of weeks:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2007/3/25/current-read-on-sd-market.html

It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to see that this is likely a result of the subprime lender implosion and resulting tighter lending standards.

On a side note, do the realtors (sdrealtor and SD Realtor, for example) and appraisers (Bugs…) here see many of their peers switching professions? With closings down almost 40% from 2004 levels I have to believe that people are fleeing in droves. Mathematically there just isn’t enough revenue to support the 2004 folks plus all of the new entrants.

[JJGittes]

I also watch N County coastal. I see sale prices below their summer 2004-2005 peak, but there have been a ton of houses that have gone pending in the last 6 weeks or so. Pretty much every nice, somewhat newer house in the mid-700′ to mid-800’s has gone into escrow. The older/rougher stuff continues to sit though. I am surprised by the activity, but I can’t deny the facts. However, I still doubt there will be serious upside to the market for several years. Yet I seem to keep getting surpised by the market.

[Bugs]

Lots of the residential appraisers are struggling and a few have already moved on. The number of would-be appraisers taking the qualifying education courses for their licenses has almost ceased entirely.

The number of fully licensed/certified residential appraisers in California increased by 60% between 2001 – 2006. The number of trainee licenses tripled during that same time frame. I predict this coming downswing will reduce our numbers by about the same number by the time it’s all over.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Davelj –

I am a little guy and I fly under the radar of the big brokerages. I do know (or shall I say am acquainted) with alot of realtors from doing transactions with them but none that I know of have bailed. However, there has to have been a big shaekout because the raw numbers were just to large for there not to have been. I think alot of people that saw easy money have gotten burned and found out that it is not like that, (at least anymore)…

I believe Jim Klinge did report he has seen a drop off in the number of closings in the past 2 months. I would expect to see that in cases of shaky or 100% financing. So again, that (at least to me) will happen in zips that are lower income. Although I bet it is occurring to some extent in other zips as well where the buyers are financing to the hilt.

SD Bear – No harm done. I thought you were referring to me. However I didn’t really read bullishness in sdrealtors postings either. I think both he and I are seeing the same thing (brisk activity) in certain types of homes in certain areas. I cannot explain it… wierd scenes inside a gold mine…

SD Realtor

[LA_Renter]

“wierd scenes inside a gold mine”

The West is the Best

[CAwireman]

SDR and sdr, I get that maybe what you are seeing, at least for your own practices that business is out there to be had.

So, to confirm, as you still are moving property, you are
a) consistenly seeing pricing that is at or below 2004 levels.
b) consistently seeing pricing at or above 2004 levels
c)Its all over the place with no rhyme or reason?
d)MYOB – go f^&k yourself!

While its great that some realtors are still able to make a buck, it would be good for the Piggingtonian folks to know if the prices you are seeing are in line with the board’s expectation of notable softening back to 2005, 2004 or 2003 levels.

Your contrubutions as realtors to this forum are invaluable.

Thanks!

[CAwireman]

One more question, how do you get Zillow to show you the past prices for properties?

Over and out.

[PerryChase]

I think that both Realtors are right.

We have a lot of pent-up demand from some of the idiots who were priced out and are thinking that now is the opportunity to buy since prices have been taking a breather. Plenty of average folks still believe that they can get rich on real estate.

Most people don’t watch the market like we do and when they hear Donald Trump say that now the time to buy, they rush out and do it.

Plenty of professionals are saying “better buy now before prices go up again.” This is kind of phenomenon always occurs at the beginning of a downturn.

[michael]

Problem with the pent-up demand is that a good chunk of it doesn’t qualify for a loan. The true measure of demand in this “normalized credit environment” is who can qualify for a loan and for how much.

[bob2007]

There are about a dozen people on this list that have shown great insight into the market (most much smarter than myself), and have been consistent. Both sd realtors are in that group, and neither has taken a bullish approach from the posts I have read. Thank you both for your contributions.

I have been accused of being in the RE business, but have no connections other than owning a couple of properties.

[sdrealtor]

Definitely:

a) consistently seeing pricing that is at or below 2004 levels.

The challenge beyond this is that there is no such thing as 2003 pricing. Prices moved dramatically higher throughout 2003 before taking a HUGE leap between Dec 2003 and Feb 2004. To refer to 2003 pricing you really need to specify what month.

We will hit prices levels on the way down that we never hit on the way up due to the size of the jumps we saw. As an example, in my area homes that sold for the high 600’s/low 700’s in Fall 2003 sold in mid 800’s in early Spring 2004. It was insane how fast things gapped up.

[Author]

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