Has it reached 2004 prices already?

[Mr_Brightside]

I posted a downtown condo that’s listed for $50K less than it’s last sale price in June 2004.

There are still people saying that the high end condos downtown are not going down.

In my view we are still at the early stages of the decline. People are always going to buy and sell but the trend is towards lower prices.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/2007/03/100k-loss-on-luxury-downtown-condo-at.html

[kev374]

Here is one at $329/sqft in Lake Forest, undercutting the competition:

MLS: S479885

3bd/3ba 1500sqft for $495k. Sure seller will neg. some, perhaps for $475 🙂 mid 2004 sale price was $400,000 so we’re almost there 😉

There is such a wide variation in this neighborhood, some similar properties are listed as high as $650k!!! This proves that not all sellers have realized that this downturn is here to stay.

[CAwireman]

sd realtor, thanks for your insight as to current pricing levels and the difficulty in going back to 2003 for comparison.

I had no idea that pricing was so volatile throughout 2003 and through to early 2004.

Now, if I hear that pricing for a unit matches early 2003 pricing, it will carry far more weight.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Cawireman –

Been on the road but kids are asleep and time to get my piggington fix in….

I to be vague but it depends on the area. Condos pretty much everywhere (IMO) are at 2004 levels and below. I don’t have any condo listings right now, nor do I have any buyers looking at condos but I have been on a few listing appts for condo owners. They all were very disappointed at my pricing recommendations and did not use me. I noted that in the comp searches I did for them that the pricings were actually BELOW 04 pricing. The last appt was for a condo downtown.

Even for detached homes in less desirable areas I am seeing at/near/below 04 prices. Escondido, Lemon Grove… even in some middle income areas like San Carlos I am seeing 04 pricing more or less. Absolutely 04 or less in Eastlake…

In some of the other areas like Scripps, and north county coastal SOME of the homes have held up better and are a little above 04 pricing. However those places didn’t peak in 04, they peaked a bit later…

Sorry if that is vague…

I think that the posters here more or less have it right. However I think that there are localized submarkets that tend to hold up better then others. Just like some submarkets fall faster then others. I am not so sure that the Piggingtonians believe or digest that fact. Most people that post on the board here will say that even those stronger submarkets will fall eventually. This may or may not be true, I cannot say.

SD Realtor

[CAwireman]

Thank you SD Realtor, much appreciated.

That you are seeing different things in different Zipcodes makes perfect sense. People behave differently depending upon their demographic and economic situation. And those behaviors have a tendency to follow along the lines of Zipcodes (not a perfect science, but a fairly predictable art…)

The take away is that while business might be fairly active, you are seeing 2004-ish prices and hence any 2006, and 2005 level increases are being or have been eroded.

This is all good information to have and track as some of us look for a good entry point for a home in the years to come.

[Author]

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