You are all wrong…

[JJGittes]

Actually, the records I found showed a purchase price of $918k on the Avenida Castana house. Only about 2400sf too. Lots else for sale in that neighborhood in the 8’s also. Ouch.

Nonetheless, the post leading off this thread was a good one for keeping the debate interesting. Too much one sided bearishness and people will get bored and start using this site to whine about global warming, Bush, the war, yada yada.

[Bugs]

Both the arguments you advanced in support of your opinion are…highly questionable to say the least.

“1) The dollar is going to lose a tremendous amount of purchasing power in the next 10 years. In nominal terms, today’s housing prices will look a steal. ”

Okay, I need you to put your critical thinking cap on here. If a person buys a home for $750,000 dollars in 2005 and inflation occurs at a 4% annual rate, that means that in 2010 dollars, todays $750,000 will have to increase to $910,000+ just to stay in terms of “value”. Do you see that happening right now? No, you don’t. What you see happening right now is that 2005 purchase at $750k has declined to $700,000 in 2006 dollars, which at the 4% inflation rate would have been equal to a 2005 $672,000 purchase price, not $750,000.

“2) San Diego is NOT the same San Diego it was 10 years ago. There is a new high-tech worker that lives here but works elsewhere. Their payrolls are not reflected in crappy government statistics. ”

Name 3 of them. If anything, the homeowner class is actually in decline right now, courtesy of outmigration and equity flight; and yes I can personally name more than a dozen of those households.

BTW, the O.C. and L.A are both going to follow along in this downturn – they aren’t immune.

[PerryChase]

Most recent borrowers were speculating on price appreciation. Our host, Rich Toscano, wrote a good article on this subject a while ago.

If anyone finds the article, please post the link.

DesperateBuyer, you’re entitled to believe what you want. Just promise to come back here again in 3 years and give us your take of the market at that time. It’ll be an interesting discussion.
———–

Certain people, especially those in the REIC can’t believe that they worked hard to “build” can collapse. It turns out that one of my friends’ sister-in-law works for Standard Pacific. They bought a house last year because they got an employee discount plus allowances. Well, now she’s getting a little worried because houses aren’t moving.

[sdrealtor]

masayako,
Here goes, I’ll explain it to you like you are a 5 year old. Couple rent in neighborhood they like and want to raise their children. One year later they find house for sale around the block that they fall in love with that has huge yard by neighborhood standards (actually on a double sized lot) and buy it. One year later couple get divorced and wife (whose actually the breadwinner and I believe pays alimony to her husband) ends up with the house. She soon realizes that she cannot carry it herself and is forced to sell. Current market prices do not support what she paid for the house and she decided to try a short sale. Once sale goes through, she intends to rent in the same neighborhood and continue raising children there until she can recover from here financial situation.

You were right about one thing “Some people DO deserve to get burned for their ignorance.”. Unfortuantely, it was you this time who deserved to get burned for their ignorance.

SDR

[sdrealtor]

Bugs,
I can name a dozen easy, two of which are neighbors of mine, though I think I skip putting their names in print.
SDR

[JWM in SD]

Sorry, but it’s still not the norm to do telecommuting at most workplaces. You do that at the risk of your own career advancement. Most who do that indefinitely are career contractors. Maybe you do okay and maybe you don’t, but it’s a stretch to say that those people are going to hold up the SD economy.

[poorgradstudent]

Grossly overpriced vs. “Bubble”?

Tomato, Tomatoe.

A lot of tech stocks in the bubble DID have intrinsic underlying values. Microsoft, Cisco, Amazon, Ebay, Yahoo, not every company went the way of pets.com. The issue was speculators were willing to pay way too much for the stocks considering the expected earnings.

Housing is still grossly overpriced, and cycling down.

[cr]

I don’t think any of said it’s the end of the world, except maybe in the Global Warming thread; going strong at 155 posts and counting.

But I do have one question for you DesperateBuyer: if homes are a steal today, how is a devaluing dollar going to allow anyone to buy at all in the next several years? Afterall, that’s what drives prices, right?

David Lereah, is that you?

[fun4vnay2]

GUys,

Kewp is right.
A lot of people is dreaming and saying that because of hitech jobs, sandegio home prices would be sustained.
No way this is possible. Because of two reasons:

1) A lot of hitech jobs are moving out of SanDiego because of cost of living

2) Even if new hitech jobs are being created like some people are saying then these jobs do not pay enough to afford the median priced house in SD

I am a 31yr/male working in Qualcomm getting little bit over $100K, no way I can afford a house here.

[Cow_tipping]

No … “this time its different is wrong”
The Correct answer is, “Its different here”. Much like OC, and SF bay and LA and Las Vegas and Phoenix and Scottsdale and … yea, all areas are different. Yea they are damn right different. It will be much much worse where its different.
Then of course gays will prop up the market cos they dont have children. And they plan to prop up the market for generations to come much like they have done since the 90’s. If only the entire population was Gay, there will be so much real estate appreciation. As we all know their sense of style is immaculate. So they will appreciate the area forever.
Jobs are leaving CA in both westward and eastward directions. ChIndia and Kansas.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[kewp]

Hey, I have a great idea!

I’m a high-tech worker in SD with an *awesome* resume. And I mean *awesome*, 10+ years experience, worked at Bell Labs, AT&T Research and Scripps Oceanography. Top of my game.

I love telecommuting too, I get to do it one day a week at my current gig.

Assuming one of the perma-bulls can get me a 200K+ year job (what I figure I would need to buy a starter home in SD county) telecommuting, I’ll sign a contract to buy property here within the next 12 months. Heck, I’ll even pay ya 1% of my take-home pay on top of that.

Any takers?

[barnaby33]

Whenever I hear the comment, “gay people will prop up the market, I laugh.” Most gay people that I have ever known work in the service industry. Those jobs ain’t proppin up nuthin.

Josh

[drunkle]

things are different now… the internet has become more than just porn and music. if anything, i would have expected a faster rate of cycling due to the much increased access to and availability of solid information.

[PerryChase]

The one thing to remember about gays, metrosexuals, young professionals, and “style” conscious buyers, it that they are generally very fickle (Of course, I’m generalizing so please don’t take offense).

One day they are are in love with Downtown, the next day with Uptown, and the next day they want a house with a picket fence. When the income is there, they’ll buy but as soon as the income dries up, they need to dump the properties. That doesn’t prop up anything but cause the cycles of booms and busts.

Think of the new towers in Downtown San Diego. They are selling a “lifestyle.” What about in 15 years when those towers are ageing and when the now “stylish” lobbies and apartments are dated?

Relationship changes also cause owners to sell and take losses thus negatively affecting the market.

[ibjames]

lol, the troll got a laugh off of this, I sure did.. talk about walking into a forum drenched in gas and asking if anyone has a match

[Author]

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