You are all wrong…

[DesperateBuyer]

Well most people, especially the ones who needed to result to using childish language, missed the point of my post.

I never said housing wasn’t over-valued, I said its not a “bubble.” There is a lot of literature and study on the subject of speculative bubbles, and the San Diego housing market does NOT meet the criteria and characteristics of “bubbles.”

Secondly, I do think there will be a real value decline in housing, I just don’t think there will be much more of a nominal price decline. That means that maybe in five years, the one million dollar house is going to still sell for one million dollars, but your dollar is going to be worth somewhat less then that.

I’m not the one who said “its different this time…” you know who keeps saying those words? Uh,oh, its our man Rich here is the one who keeps talking about how “this time is different.” He said those words again in the last Voice of San Diego article when he wondered aloud why the market kept going up, unlike in past instances.

I agree with him that it is different. What’s different, is that paper money is losing value and investors are rationally bidding up the price of assets with intrinsic value.

Can anyone show me a chart of the San Diego housing market in terms of the price of gold? Anyone? Oh, suddenly it doesn’t seem so out of whack does it?

We had double digit price inflation in the 70’s, we are going to have double digit price inflation once again. The only reason it hasn’t shown up yet in the data is that producers keep dropping costs. (ie China).

I would not advocate speculating on a single family house, not now, not ever in fact.

But would I suggest taking on a fixed rate mortgage right now and buying a house you planned to live in for some time? Absolutely. Owning a home IS the American Dream and if we see the price inflation that I expect is going to shortly be upon us, then a fixed rate mortgage at today’s low interest rate will not seem so bad at all….

For those who are waiting for that beachfront property to be trading at rental value…well, you are going to have a long, long wait.

One final thought, I live here in San Diego and there is not an educated person in the city that will tell you with a straight face that they think now is a good time to buy. The “housing bubble” headline has made it on to every single national magazine’s cover and has been featured ad nausem on TV and in the newspapers.

The amount of people “waiting to buy” when the bubble crashes is something I’ve never seen before.

When is the last time every major magazine’s cover story called it right? Your going to tell me this time its different? No way, the herd always gets it wrong.

I’m a lone voice, of the 29 posts responding, some vehmently to my suggestions, not a single person agreed with me.

Indeed, the only bubble is the group of “housing bubble” message boards, which I do predict will prove to have no intrinsic or lasting value. Instead they will only serve to scare some people away from buying a house and living the miserable life of a renter. A true shame in my opinion.

[an]

DesperateBuyer, call it what you want. I’m done tired of people debating about the label. Let the number speak for itself. All I know is I just saved myself about $100-$150k by not buying the house I would have a year or 2 ago. That’s in real dollar term, not inflation adjusted. So while you’re labeling renters as miserable, let me tell you, I’m not miserable everyday when I see my retirement grow and seeing the house i want to buy “REDUCED” again. I’m far from miserable, I’m ecstatic that I can rent for 50% discount and put away that 50% for rainy days and help get me to retirement goal when I’m 45.

So, bottom line is, it’s not different this time. It will crash like it did many times before. The only thing that’s different this time is how it’ll play out. Come back in 7 years and see if it’s anything similar to the 7 years between 89-96.

[xironman]

Yeah,

A telecommuter with the ability to live anywhere is going to choose San Diego, because he can’t get enough of traffic and insane housing prices. No way you would consider any other place where you can live like a king for what it costs you in SD. Most of the telecommuter are leftovers from operations that used to be there and have moved somewhere else cheaper. Hence had preexisting living conditions, not transplants with new money.

Former San Diego Resident, that moniker was taken.

[cr]

I’m still convinced this is David Lereah or one of his NAR cronies spewing biased propaganda using upsupported claims in the form of “facts,” ignoring the truth that Home Prices are simply overpriced.

You haven’t rained on anyone’s parade, you’ve simply come and made unsubstantiated claims that everything said here is wrong.

Spoken like a true Realtor™:

“But would I suggest taking on a fixed rate mortgage right now and buying a house you planned to live in for some time? Absolutely.

Is that because more double digit inflation (what it takes to fill a bubble) is expected or because you’ve got some hot listings?

I’m just curious.

[HereWeGo]

Anyone have the current NOD and NOT totals for the first two weeks of February in San Diego County? If those continue to skyrocket, that’s a fairly strong piece of evidence that DB is incorrect.

[patb]

Not to sound too stupid but

NOD is Notice of Default:= which is anyone more then 90 days behind?

but what is NOT?

Notice of Termination? Is that a irrevocable conditon after 180 days?

[Wickedheart]

Notice of Trustee Sale.

[JWM in SD]

Oh come off it already…who are you kidding? You are truly deserving of the scorn and derision you’ve received here for truly ignorant remarks.

Rationally bidding up home prices? Really? Tell that to those in Murietta and Temecula who were defrauded to the tune of over 1B.

Credit contraction is happening as we speak (a little event called subprime implosion…maybe you haven’t heard). Check out the following tickers: NFI, NEW, LEND. Now tell me that people were rationally bidding up home prices. NO THEY WERE NOT JACKASS!!! They were doing so with exotic lending and in a lot of cases outright fraud.

Inflation will save the day…yeah right. My salary will double overnight and Bernanke will giftwrap a wad $1,000 bills for me personally. Ain’t going to happen.

Get over it douchebag, the party is over. People in SD have to start getting real jobs again as opposed to living off their overpriced stucco boxes.

Bitter renter you say…well maybe two years ago, but not now.

I have cash and I have time desperate seller, what do you have besides a mountain of debt and a stucco box?

[Sandi Egan]

Actually, it will be interesting to see the charts of 1980-2006 SD housing prices converted to gold and Euro.

[Anonymous]

DesperateBuyer is an ass, and ignorant.

If I took his advice I would have spent $200K more just 4 months ago. Here is the house I bid on in Laguna Niguel in September 2006:

28371 LAKEWOOD DRIVE, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

At the time, the house was listed for $1,150,000. Price reduced to $1,045,000 after I walked away from the Sellers counter offer. House sat on the market for 11 months and then was reposted last week for $999,000 (MLS #: S476352).

I spoke to the Real Estate Hooker, ops, I mean Broker and she told me the owner could not afford to go any lower as he paid $940,000 for the house in 2005 at the peak of the Bubble!

Don’t tell me this isn’t a Bubble! Frankly, it was reading the blogs and doing the research that made me pull my offer. I will be content to lease a nice place in Laguna for the next 2 years and watch as the greedy bastards eat it! I visted at least 30 or 40 houses in Laguna Niguel in SEP/OCT 2006. More than 50% were not occupied and most were total dumps for >1,000,000. Give me a freaking break!

Alot of really nice Californias are going to get screwed as they bought into the HYPE that helped fuel this BUBBLE! They spent, and spent and spent. Bought nice new cars, took lavish vacations, bought all the latest gadgets. All on the housing ATM. Now that they have maxed out thier HELOCs and can’t refi to keep their homes, they will be screwed. Nobody moving from out of state is going to pay these prices for the crap they are selling.

Biotech-Dude

[PerryChase]

Instead they will only serve to scare some people away from buying a house and living the miserable life of a renter.

————–

What's so miserable about renting in Del Mar when you can only afford to buy in Rancho Bernado? Or renting in La Costa when you can only afford to by in Clairemont?   Or renting a nice single family house when you can only afford a condo?   You can do that and still have money left over to put into savings!

 

[PerryChase]

About telecommuting, if I could earn my American income and choose to live anywhere in the world, I definitely wouldn’t live in San Diego.

I’d have a beach house on Phi Phi Island,
Thailand as my base, then I’d rent for 3 to 6 months in different areas of the world — Paris, London, Hong Kong, Sydney, Buenos Aires, Rio, etc…

As a matter of fact, Phuket, Thailand has plans to ring the island with fiber optic cables just to attract the tech telecommuters.

[bob2007]

DesperateBuyer, I will agree with you on many points. I read your first post and thought it was just bait to get everyone riled up, but after reading your second post I’ll give the group a second target. I made a dissenting post at one time with similar negative results. I think there are a few good people in this group, so here it goes again….

To the group: If all the posts agree with the status quo
1. You will have nothing to talk about
2. Your knowledge about the market/buyer mentality will help you make more informed decisions.

I am posting this because I would genuinely like to see all of you get a home if that is what you wish to do. I used this board to get the negative perspective on the market.

I have put my money behind my belief, and purchased a home. I also sold a home in the past month. Three offers in 7 days because it was priced right. I made money on it because I held it more than 8 years. At the time I purchased it there were opinions on both sides, just as now. I am near the end of participating in this group now that this house has been sold.

This has worked for me several times. Once I did sell after a few years, and took a $10k loss on the house because it was a bad time to sell. However, I purchased another house at the same time, paid less for the same reason, and made a substantial amount on it.

So, you now have some opinions from people that believe that with a 8-10 year horizon they are willing to buy. Fixed rate loans, decent down payment. No expectation of the price doubling, but not losing money either. They believe the quality of life is worth the risk.

[Anonymous]

Boob007 is full of it!!

I have read several of your posts. You are a troll lurker spreading miss information. Just like your posts on why so many in Bioscience will be working in San Diego, in spite of the recent and very public news of all the major Biotech firms laying people off. I don’t believe a word you write.

Quality of life my ass! I just moved from Chicago and can’t believe the crap people are trying to sell out here for $1,000,000. Total dumps miles from the coast, tons of traffic and 1.1% tax rate. Are you friggin kidding me? Mello roos??! INSANITY!

In a few years when the market comes down 40-60%, then it will be a good quality of life. Spending 50% – 75% of my income on housing to drive 45 minutes on the 405 is NOT a quality life style.

Biotech-Dude

[bob2007]

Ok, biotech guy. Make a decision! Don’t just whine. Why not go back to Chicago where you would be happy? If housing is too expensive, and you say your industry is dying (I don’t think so), it makes no sense to stay in a bad situation.

[Author]

Posts