[JES]

My warning was the sale of my house and the explanation of why I was selling. I left it up to them to research the rest and make their own decisions.

Poway seller – IMO it is confirmation bias – the tendancy we all have to take in information that confirms a belief we have while disregarding information that may contradict it. For example, until I read your posts on another thread about throwing out all your skirts I assumed you were a man! Also, most people tend to be optimistic and want to believe good things are yet to come, don’t you agree?

[JES]

My hunch (and I wish I had some stats to prove this) is that families make due here by taking out home equity loans and using the house as an ATM. For most young families with kids who are not wealthy or making $100,000+/year, the best advice is to leave the area IMO.

[JES]

Cour D’ Alene (sp? too) looks like a great town, except for the winters. And are there jobs up there? I know the area is growing, and that Buck knives from San Diego moved there. Schweitzer ski area is right above the town, and that lake might as well be Tahoe.

As far as ‘dream towns’ go, I have found myself looking at the same ones you have all listed. Cour D Alene, Austin, Fort Collins etc. Are we influenced my the ‘best cities’ lists on CNN, Money Magazine and Outdoor Magazine by chance?

I went to Bozeman, MT a few weeks ago – another city that always makes those lists. Homes are not cheap because people like us have been moving there and jacking up prices. When I was checking out of the hotel the clerk saw that I was from SD and told me that if I moved there I should get new plates before looking for a home since the people hate Californians so much. There is a brochure at the Chamber that actually advises you on how to conduct yourself with ‘Montana’ values. Out of nowhere the lady then whispered “We have Mexicans here now and gangs.” I was actually kind of offended since I didn’t even ask and she must have assumed that because I was white she needed to tell me that! She was from Santa Barbara…

[JES]

I agree with you. As much as those of on these boards are in the loop and informed, most people out there likely still believe we are going to have a soft landing, or continued appreciation. When the Union Tribune starts reporting headlines like “Sales off 40%, prices down 8%%” we will see some panic.

[JES]

I see how this is going to stimulate price drops in resale as well. I’m sure there are resale homes in that area for the 600s, 700s whose owners are now freaking out…

[JES]

I see how this is going to stimulate price drops in resale as well. I’m sure there are resale homes in that area for the 600s, 700s whose owners are now freaking out…

[JES]

I see how this is going to stimulate price drops in resale as well. I’m sure there are resale homes in that area for the 600s, 700s whose owners are now freaking out…

[JES]

Yes, when I was younger and we bought our first house I was amazed and excited that we qualified for the loan. I figured that since we qualified we must be able to afford it! I am thankful that people tend to become wiser with age:)

[JES]

Here’s a related article on cashing out and going elsewhere:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1204

[JES]

Why wouldn’t they? Next to the South the Midwest probably has the highest concentration of blacks in the U.S., assuming a high concentration of ones own race is even a criteria for relocating there. Medium and large cities in the Midwest all have significant populations of blacks, and some of the states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois can sometimes (Illinois always) lean leftward politically as well. Again, I do not want to assume that all blacks are Democrats either, but generally most are and perhaps your comment was meant to mean that they wouldn’t want to move somewhere that is ‘red state’ America so to speak. Generally speaking, many of the largest cities in the Midwest are majority black – Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, and the rest all have sizable populations. Medium cities less so, but still 10-20%. Small towns and rural areas in the Midwest, unlike the South, tend not to have many minorities at all. Never seen any black farmers in IL I’m afraid. There are not as many Asians as there are in CA, but depending on the city there are sizable communities. Minneapolis/St. Paul, for example, has a huge Hmong population. And like everywhere, there are growing Hispanic populations everywhere in the Midwest…

[JES]

Good advice. Homes in Denver may be 1/2 the price of SD, but they are experiencing a decline right now even worse than SD from what I have heard. Inventory is over 30k there and defaults are through the roof..

[JES]

250k – Ft. Collins/Colorado Springs/Denver, Boise or the Midwest.

500k – Same as above and invest the remainder.

750k – ”

[JES]

Yes, I forgot to mention that we are also considering waiting this out:)

[JES]

Great analysis! Think about this very imperfect analysis:

If we assume 24,000 homes for sale, a population of 1,800,000 who are over 25 years old in the county, and we assume that only 9% can afford a median priced home. Then:

=Approx 162,000 residents can afford the median priced home, but some are married. So lets say 40% are married.
=Approx 130,000 unmarried individuals or couples in the entire county can afford that home.

=Approx 31 percent of individuals/couples who CAN afford to buy a home would HAVE to buy a home to clear the current inventory! And many of those homes are well above the mediun price!

Very imperfect analysis, I know!

[JES]

Ah, you have hit it right on the head! That is the million $$ question that we are trying to answer right now. We have been researching cities the past few months and are having a hard time narrowing our search. I’ve checked out Idaho, Montana, Colorado and the areas of the Midwest like Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa.

I do believe that we will end up sacrificing on some quality of life issues if we leave as it is nearly impossible to find a place as perfect as Encinitas! IMO the economy, weather, low crime rate, abundance of things to do like going to the beach, biking year round etc. do justify a much higher cost of living here. I don’t, however, believe that current home prices properly reflect that differential because they have been largely inflated by speculators and investors and not by market forces.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices here drop 25% or more, but still settle at a point that is significantly higher than most other cities.

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