Would you leave California? Where would you go?

[mydogsarelazy]

Hello All,

So lets say that you had the chance to cash out — and I get the feeling some of you have — where would you move?

Let’s say, for example that you have a family of pre-teen children and you want to move to a place where the schools are good, and you can live mortgage free. Where would you go if you had:

– $250k cash in hand?

– $500k cash in hand?

– $750 cash in hand?

JS

[JES]

250k – Ft. Collins/Colorado Springs/Denver, Boise or the Midwest.

500k – Same as above and invest the remainder.

750k – ”

[mydogsarelazy]

Here is an article from last November that mentions some destinations:

JS

[FormerOwner]

Well, I think the low-interest rate environment of the last 5 years has created a national, even global, housing bubble. It’s hard to tell exactly what the effects of the bubble burst will be even in areas that never had a huge run-up in prices. So, I’d probably rent for the next few years, no matter where I lived and wait for some signals that things have bottomed out and stabilized. Plus, you’ll get to know the area that way, before buying. There’s no reason to rush right now, IMHO.

Here are some places that come to mind though, no matter how much $$ one had:
-Austin, TX
-Richmond, VA
(I like it there but don’t know much about the schools)
-Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC
-Charlotesville, VA (if you can find work – teaching?)
-Atlanta, GA (although it suffers from much of the same urban sprawl issues as So Cal)
-Portland, OR (if you don’t mind fog and rain)
-Montreal, Canada and maybe Toronto
(other than the cold, I think Canada has a lot to offer)

All that being said, we intend to stick around and, maybe, buy a house in Temecula or, possibly, San Diego when prices drop to a reasonable level. In the meantime, there’s nothing wrong with renting. If prices don’t drop, I’ll never buy a house in California again. That wouldn’t really be a big deal either.

[JES]

Good advice. Homes in Denver may be 1/2 the price of SD, but they are experiencing a decline right now even worse than SD from what I have heard. Inventory is over 30k there and defaults are through the roof..

[powayseller]

I believe we are going to see a national housing price decline. It is already starting. National data from home builders and the NAR shows high cancellation rates, overbuilding, high inventory, longer days on market for the entire country. National home builder stocks are down 50%.

With a national housing bubble, I would not buy anywhere. And since I am renting, I would like to rent in San Diego. The only reason for us to leave would be unemployment.

Housing prices did not go up much in most of the country, but they will suffer “bubble like” effects due to exotic lending. Although houses in Omaha, NE went up with inflation the last few years, buyers overstretched into homes they cannot afford, with adjusting mortgages that they won’t be able to pay, and therefore housing prices will fall nationwide. I predict a 10-15% real decline in the next 2 years for the U.S housing market as a whole.

[PerryChase]

mydogsarelazy, based on the criteria you’ve listed, I’d move to Austin TX. There are good jobs there. The cost of living is low. In Austin, one could buy a house, pay it off, invest the remainder, and even work part-time and go back to school. In essence have a fairly worry free life. Austin is a good American city with wholesome values and culture as well.

But that would however not really work for me. Personally, I’m getting my financial ducks in a row, then enventually, I’ll move overseas for about 1/2 the year while keeping my base in San Diego. I’ll travel the world and take it easy for a while — have passport, can travel kinda life. That’s what I’m aiming for. Of course, I don’t have wife and kids to take care of. While I live in a SFR now, I’d be OK living a studio apartment in Paris or Hong Kong.

On another note, if a family is Black, Asian or another minority, would they really want to move to middle America? I would guess not.

[powayseller]

There are lots of blacks in the Midwest. I was surprised when I moved to San Diego, “where are all the blacks”?

[technovelist]

Vancouver would probably be at the top of my list for many reasons, although the real estate prices there are also insane. I would still move there, though, and rent for a couple of years until things settle down.

By the way, it isn’t very cold there, unlike most of Canada. I believe the average January low is 32F and the average July high is 82F. They have pretty close to perfect weather, other than the frequent cloud cover, which I imagine could get pretty depressing after awhile.

[JES]

Why wouldn’t they? Next to the South the Midwest probably has the highest concentration of blacks in the U.S., assuming a high concentration of ones own race is even a criteria for relocating there. Medium and large cities in the Midwest all have significant populations of blacks, and some of the states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois can sometimes (Illinois always) lean leftward politically as well. Again, I do not want to assume that all blacks are Democrats either, but generally most are and perhaps your comment was meant to mean that they wouldn’t want to move somewhere that is ‘red state’ America so to speak. Generally speaking, many of the largest cities in the Midwest are majority black – Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, and the rest all have sizable populations. Medium cities less so, but still 10-20%. Small towns and rural areas in the Midwest, unlike the South, tend not to have many minorities at all. Never seen any black farmers in IL I’m afraid. There are not as many Asians as there are in CA, but depending on the city there are sizable communities. Minneapolis/St. Paul, for example, has a huge Hmong population. And like everywhere, there are growing Hispanic populations everywhere in the Midwest…

[JES]

Here’s a related article on cashing out and going elsewhere:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1204

[PerryChase]

technovelist, personally i would also move to Vancouver, Canada. Vancouver is a great place and also very scenic.

However, I don’t think that the city would qualify under mydogarelazy’s criteria for moving to given that housing there is also in bubble. Plus, it vouldn’t be that easy given that you’d have to apply for Canadian residency and work permit.

[novice1027]

You couldn’t drag me out of CA kicking and screaming.
Well maybe a Caribbean island, but other that that, I’m here for good.
I don’t mind paying “the sunshine tax”

[smfj]

Raleigh or Chapel Hill, NC. Would I buy? Absolutely. Based on employment growth, median income, income to home price ratios, etc., no reason to believe housing is severely inflated there. I wouldn’t be worried about riding out any slight dip in the market since I would be investing in a long-term family home. Lots of great things about the area.

(Note: I’m using the assumption that I have a family and I’m interested in living mortgage-free. In reality, I’m young, childless, and not ready to settle down.)

[anxvariety]

Price-wise? Not sure.. as far as fav cities:
Flagstaff, AZ
Minneapolis, MN
Seattle, WA
Portland, OR

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