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JES
ParticipantInteresting piece JG and I think it is clear that something needs to change fast. IMO the most likely outcome of this war is going to be the division of Iraq into a loose confederation of three autonomous ethnic regions after a significant withdrawal of US forces over the next two years. Democratic wins this November – heaven forbid they should occur – will quicken the calls for withdrawal and we are already seeing policy changes in the White House in anticipation of this.
The real problem we have now is the barbarian tactics of the various ethnic groups against each other and for that we should accept no blame. I’m afraid that there are only two arrangements that will bring partial peace to that area – a strong handed dictator like the one we got rid of or separating the country along ethnic lines. At the outset I was optimistic about the chances of democracy taking root in a unified Iraq, but no longer.
I think history will look back at this as a failed experiment of trying to bring democracy to a people whose culture and attitudes just aren’t ready for it. I believe it was a noble cause that needed to be undertaken, and perhaps the three regions will develop democratic governments. If they don’t, only the Iraqis are to blame. At this point I think we should divide the country in three along ethnic lines and assume the role of defending the regions against outside attack.
ParticipantThat’s classic CardiffBaseball!
ParticipantWhile we are on the topic of religion, I found an interesting link to the new Time Magazine that shows in neat graphical form the distribution of adherants by state. Facinating to see facts that I had always known but never seen represented like this. It also gives you a sense as to where the most religious people live, like Utah for example! Sorry, I forget how to post links! Perry – there’s a little white area in Idaho you may feel at home:)
http://www.time.com/time/covers/20061030/denomination_nation/
ParticipantPersonally, I like Tim Russert (Meet the Press) and Chris Matthews (Hardball). They are smart, tend to stay away from the spin and they challenge their guests.
ParticipantComplain about Fox News all you want, but your opinions are not shared by most Americans. Do you see a trend in the top 10 rated news shows?
[img_assist|nid=1892|title=Fox News|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=54]
Top Ranked Cable News Programs:
1) FOXN THE OREILLY FACTOR
2) FOXN HANNITY & COLMES
3) FOXN ON THE RECORD W/GRETA
4) FOXN THE FOX REPORT W/S.SMITH
5) FOXN SPECIAL REPORTW/BRIT HUME
6) CNN LARRY KING LIVE
7) FOXN THE BIG STORY W/J GIBSON
8) FOXN STUDIO B W/S.SMITH
9) FOXN FOX AND FRIENDS
10)FOXN FOX NEWS LIVEOctober 21, 2006 at 4:13 PM in reply to: Bressi Ranch…16 new homes to be auctioned off 10/21/06 #38153ParticipantJust to clarify – Do you think that the bids will be accepted? You said none sold, but you also said that some people bid 250k or so below the previous sold.
ParticipantAnyone heard any arguments for a ‘squeeze’ in the market – the period of time when rental rates are shooting up but home prices have not yet reached attractive levels? Not only will home prices still be unaffordable and also unattractive due to the continuing decline, but rentals – the safety valve for those who can’t buy – will also be out of reach. I’m not sure if this is valid or not, but this notion of a ‘squeeze’ period just occurred to me this morning. As an example, I was looking at homes in San Marcos today and 600k is still too much for me. I also checked out rentals and homes that would have been 2200/Mo last year are now 2500/Mo.
ParticipantThe remarks about people leaving and deciding not to come are so true, and there is a recent thread on this called “Should Young People Leave California.” Still interesting for those of you who are not young anymore!
Bottom line is that if you are well educated and are a doctor, lawyer, engineer etc. you can make it work in San Diego, especially if you are married and your wife/husband have a well paying job, and especially as home prices continue to fall. On the other hand, if like most people you are in a lower paid profession like teaching, social work, policing, fire fighting, many business fields etc. it is going to be difficult, especially if you are young and haven’t bought yet.
What is clearly happening is that these young, middle class, often college educated people who have not yet bought and are not in lucrative careers are leaving. San Diego is going to become a land divided between an upper class and a lower class to serve them with little in between. It’s why Lou Dobbs called his new book The War on the Middle Class.
Thankfully, the escape valve is that there are hundreds of great cities out there where a middle class family can own a great home and live the good life. I plan to move to one of them! My wife and I are late 20s, early 30s, have two children, both college graduates and even have some equity from a previous home but still can’t afford the life we want here.
October 20, 2006 at 10:45 AM in reply to: Bressi Ranch…16 new homes to be auctioned off 10/21/06 #38076ParticipantSounds like a great news story, even if they do sell all the homes. Let’s get the NC times to show up. Can you imagine the headlines if they don’t sell any!
Participantoodle.com has some rentals listed for San Diego. I find the site easy to use and well populated. I believe they pull listings from other web sites.
ParticipantGot a flyer today with photos of four local houses featured. Each had a bubble saying ‘in escrow’ or make an offer.’ One of the ‘make an offer’ photos had a very carefully placed white tape covering the original bubble. I didn’t even notice the first time I looked at it. It used to say ‘in escrow’ but now says ‘make an offer.’ She probably thought that 3 in escrow would make for a good flyer – too bad one dropped out.
ParticipantI was stationed at Pendleton for a number of years and have some insight that may be useful. The first way that the housing market is affecting military families is that most are entirely shut out of the market and cannot afford to buy a home here anymore. When I checked into the base in the late 90s many officers and quite a few middle to senior enlisted Marines owned homes. By 2003 homes were out of range for all but the most senior enlisted Marines with equity from prior purchases, and many junior officers that I knew decided not to buy because of high prices. Big mistake as prices boomed further – by 2005 prices were out of range for virtually all Marines regardless of rank.
These days military families checking into Pendleton do not even consider buying a home unless they have prior equity. This is not a huge chunk of the buyers out there. I have no idea what the stats say, but if I had to make a really uneduated guess I’d say that out of the 40,000 Marines at Pendleton, perhaps 300 would buy homes in any given year before 2003. Consider the whole county, including the Navy, and maybe the number was closer to 1,000 homes/year. Whatever it was, I bet it is now down by at least 90%.
Now, the cost of housing is different from the cost of living. The military provides housing pay and cost of living allowances and they are higher for Pendleton than other areas of the country. They are actually adjusted by zip code. It is still expensive here, but there is no reason a family who does not own a house should be suffering because of housing costs.
ParticipantWent to McDonalds today with the kids and noticed more people in line than usual. I listened and most were ordering water instead of drinks. Nobody donated change to the plastic fund container, and most ordered food from the $1 menu. One rather large lady – OK, she was fat – only ordered a small fry, not large. One guy walked in, looked at the prices, shook his head and walked out the door.
My observations lead me to believe housing will crash 30+% by the end of next year…
ParticipantThis median business is really misleading as Rich has described earlier. I imagine that many people are feeling good this morning that prices are only down a little bit overall, and even up in a couple areas. If I lived in San Marcos, for example, I would have no idea that there is a fire sale going on in San Elijo, that there are countless neighborhoods where prices are down 10-20% and are not selling, and that there are others with multiple foreclosures. I can point to one home in Silvercrest in San Marcos where a home is discounted to 589k; the most recent 2 x comps are 715k and 725k! Another in Santa Fe Hills comps at 650k and is discounted to 550k.
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