As biased as you can get….

[JES]

Anyone heard any arguments for a ‘squeeze’ in the market – the period of time when rental rates are shooting up but home prices have not yet reached attractive levels? Not only will home prices still be unaffordable and also unattractive due to the continuing decline, but rentals – the safety valve for those who can’t buy – will also be out of reach. I’m not sure if this is valid or not, but this notion of a ‘squeeze’ period just occurred to me this morning. As an example, I was looking at homes in San Marcos today and 600k is still too much for me. I also checked out rentals and homes that would have been 2200/Mo last year are now 2500/Mo.

[santeeman]

We all saw people saying housing was too expensive to buy in the 90’s @200k then 300k and so on. We all thought it was. One of my neighbors that rents had said to me, “I don’t wanna buy a house, all the costs for upkeep,etc…” Now he has been living in his house that was worth 130k when he moved there, been upkeeping it on his own, owner does nothing, pays higher rent every year and his landlord is 500k richer, they have always talked about moving somewhere else where its cheaper. They never do. I don’t expect they will. No one can afford to survive at these prices if they continue,(which they are not) but everyone in San Diego moving away from the beaches, weather and family, etc. is I think highly unlikely. Personal wealth will not be sustained just by sitting on it. So we will always pay more for paradise…or you can move, but most of us will buy eventually, and try to build the american dream . Income will eventually get higher, rents will go up and houses will come down. How much is the question NOBODY KNOWS for sure…they never new how high they would go, and no one can predict how low. Ebb and flow…….

[santeeman]

Off track, but isn’t it a shame that “kids” in this generation worry about buying realestate. I didn’t think about it until I had a kid! My nepew was 19(works for his Dad and makes 70k a year) bought a condo in Santee last year,275k and got married and had a kid…his sister is going to grad school in AZ(cause its cheaper) and she and her boyfriend are going to try to buy….its the American Dream kidz on the fast track!

[mydogsarelazy]

I grew up in Brentwood/West Los Angeles in a home that my parents bought for $37,500 in 1959. My mother cried after signing the mortgage because it seemed like so much debt. When a large local property was subdivided and developed in the mid 1960’s I remember going over to look at the new houses with my parents who were saying “Nobody is ever going to pay one hundred thousand dollars for a house.”

When they retired in the mid-eighties they sold their home for $750k to a man who remodelled it and sold it for $1.1 million.

OK, where am I going with this?

Yes, buying California real estate, holding on to it and watching it appreciate has been the single most important thing my parents or I ever did.

That said, I think the folks on this board have it right. People who sold in 2004-5 and ran away with the cash have done themselves and their families a huge favor. They are someday going to be compared to those who sold stocks before the 1929 crash.

I apreciate the civility of the broker from Pasadena, but telling people “Don’t hold your breath” is an easy thing for someone to do when they profit on transactions.

By the way, I am not a real estate professional of any kind, just a middle class guy sharing his personal, possibly deluded opinions.

JS

[waiting hawk]

LOL “Don’t hold your breath”. Sorry folks all this reminds me of is a HH post on Craigslist forum. Post some data or something at least.

[santeeman]

You are not being real clear. What would you like statistics on? I can give you links with stats on both sides of the fence…I am on the fence should I stay or should I go….I am positive of one thing I am not sure what is best!

[barnaby33]

WOW, you guys really reacted to that post. Must have hit a sore spot.

Pasadena Broker, you are fairly eloquent, that’s nice. Whats not nice is that you have presented an argument devoid of any data, even anecdotal evidence.

So many times over the last few years people from the other side of the tracks have come here and posted basically the exact same argument. They NEVER provide any evidence. I am sure that SOMEONE was buying RE even in december of 1929, but not alot of people.

I’d hate to loose your eloquence (on this board), but you have to add some substance, or next time I post, I will lose mine.

We make predictions and we argue over them, and yes these are all subject to re-discussion. Emotion plays no place in my discussion of RE, except insofar as it explains the stupidity of crowds.

Ultimately Pasadena Broker, you have missed the point badly. We aren’t here to market time, and most of us despite flippant predictions don’t claim to be waiting for the absolute bottom. Nobody knows where that is. What we are doing is waiting and communicating about the cyclic nature of the most expensive asset most of us will ever buy. Bouncing ideas, testing theories and sharing information.

Please provide evidence that we are holding our breath.
Please provide statistics that show why RE isn’t going down.
Please join our group constructively.

(Holding breath)

Josh

[santeeman]

No one can provide data that isn’t there.
Realestate prices ARE going down. That is a fact, sales ARE down, that is a fact.www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker
However, folks on this site tend to PREDICT that its going to be for umteen years and until price declines go over 50% and then some. In my humble opinion THAT is beyond reality.
There is some data/information out there that make SOME seem to think prices may have hit bottom too-which is ridiculous- and housing inventories are at least for now in San Diego declining, albeit time of year, expireds, sales, I don’t know, but they are.www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker. So I say I agree don’t hold your breath for others to feel the same way you do and give away 100k,(renting won’t save you forever it’s going up) don’t put your chickens in one basket, don’t get caught up in the hype, and listen to your mother.

p.s. By the way people who are foreclosed on DO rent. Not every individual who is a landlord checks credit. If you are making 80k you still can afford to rent. You just can’t afford to make the payments on your 650k no interest insane loan you got.

[PorkmanDelardo]

Let me get this straight. Home prices have gone up 200, 300 percent in the past few years during the run up, but a 50 percent decline is beyond reality? You sound like a neophyte broker to me with a perennial optimistic attitude. Just what you need to get more clients. Save the rah rah for another site, because this is the real world. Porkman

[Mexico Resident]

Pasadena Broker might be a neophyte, and he might be a troll

[santeeman]

It’s my opinion, and it’s your hope. 200 and 300% in the past few years,(more like ten) where did that happen? Show the statics for that. I am a home owner, thinking about moving. I hate the heat, traffic, and the fact my kids won’t be able to afford anything here, decent, not a broker. So you are definitely wrong about at LEAST one idea, I am guessing on a whole lot more……good luck

[PorkmanDelardo]

I say this guy is 24 years old, drives a 330i and lives in the basement of his parents tri-level condo in Laguna beach. With no view from the lower level.

[santeeman]

I say you are delusional. But thanks. You have to admit there still is no stats to support your delusions.

[PorkmanDelardo]

Somebody put on their crabby pants this morning? Take it easy and take a chill pill…..junior.

[santeeman]

Come here when you have something to say that’s informative.
Grow up and make some sense before you go attacking other folks for their opinions. No one else cares if you think your funny, find another forum for your juvenile nonsense.

[Author]

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