As biased as you can get….

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I did not suggest that people who are foreclosed on don’t rent…just that they will not be renting in the same nice communities most of us live in…perhaps the landlords in National City don’t check credit, I don’t know-

Lose your house to foreclosure, though, and you will likely be renting a space from the KOA in Chula Vista, NOT a 4/3 SFR in Bonita.

[santeeman]

oops

[santeeman]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion so maybe not, but the guy my mom had evicted last year,(she didn’t get a credit check), who has an unlawful detainer( which is supposed to be worse than a bancruptcy-supposed to get you blackballed from renting) rented a house in Santee, from a property agency. right away! Check this site out. I read them from all over the place but this is California. http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061021/MONEY/610210303

[Pasadena Broker]

I posted that data numbers are objective, however, interpretation is subjective, because isn’t that the case, data will always be interpreted one way or another. Real estate is personal, why else would there be so much emotion attached to it from the sellers wanting someone to fund their retirement to adamant buyers that are waiting for the proverbial ‘other shoe’ to drop. Granted my experience is centered around the Southern California area, and specifically in the Los Angeles area. So I can only discuss what I know. I can say that if you had bought property in 1991 in the Los Angeles area, you experienced a 20-30% decline depending on the area. That’s a 20-30% decline from your purchase price in 1991. Fast forward to 2000-2005, you would’ve realized a gain around or above 100%.

The passing comment I posted was directed at the article from CNN MONEY. As for waiting out the market, being a debt slave, market that’s flattening, moving down, or sinking like a turn of the century English cruise liner, it’s a matter of opinion, honestly, isn’t it? In hindsight from the current market, we can all point back and place a general time frame when the market ‘peaked’. However, there are still people buying, not at the same volume as last year. Everyone’s reasoning is different and timing is relative to every individual. My opinion on the market is that we won’t see the YOY appreciation we saw in the past 3 years (if you want the data numbers, I’m sure there are sites that provide them) relative to each area. I think a huge loss isn’t likely, here’s why, and this is more left brain thinking with human responses rather than right brain with numbers and graphs. Why? The information is readily available (Internet, ZipRealty, Zillow) that anyone can log in and do their own homework, how much did you rely on the internet in 1991 or 1983? Isn’t the speed of information and the large industrial employers different (yes, I’ve read the ‘it’s different this time’ comments) and not something that will change anytime soon? I think I’m about as right as everyone else on this forum and just as wrong. Which is why, I don’t recommend anyone to hold their breath.

[qcomer]

PasadenaBroker,

Sorry but I find your posts confusing. Most people who joined this forum were fascinated by research by Rich and the graphs he produced. We crave for real cold hard objective numbers. So excuse us if most people here don’t care for your emotional plea to “not hold our breath”.

Is your whole argument based on the fact that people will always be buying homes? There were people wanting to buy but that shouldn’t have raised prices 200-300% and whehn it did, I didn’t hear you or anyone question that move. Now, there are definitely still people who are buying but their numbers (demand) is low simply because they cannot afford the houses. But supply has jumped with invesntory almost double than last year. So again, why do you think I shouldn’t hold my breath for the bubble to burst?

Finally, I call BS on your claim about emotional attachment of people to their houses. Most homes on market pressuring prices down are by flippers, speculators or people who bought houses beyond their capacity with exotic loans in last 3-4 years and have no emotional attachment to their so called homes. Their only emotional attachment is to the paper money they thought they had and cannot believe they may have screwed it up. Anyone living in a house for 20 years and who has REAL emotional attachment to his home/abode will easily sit out this bubble. Sorry but my emotional attachment is to myself and my experiences and not to the cardboard walls, inside which I had the experience.

[FutureSDguy]

I think Pasadena is basically saying that if you don’t buy now, prices will be higher later.

[PD]

Sure, prices will be higher later – 10 or 15 years later. Pasadena’s point is nothing but RE establishment spin. Instead of data, he is falling back on buyer emotion, which is conveniently impossible to quantify. This is just a new tactic in line with the usual nonsense about “sunshine tax” and “they aren’t making any more land.”

I don’t think anybody here is saying that there will never be a time to buy SoCal real estate. RE will be a good investment again. It is not a good investment right now. The only people buying right now are the uniformed, the folks that have let emotion cloud their judgment (sure, there are a few who are ignoring the evidence), people who have convinced themselves that nothing in their future life will prevent them holding onto the property for 15 years until prices go back up (do they really think they have a crystal ball?), the small number who have so much money that the benefit of owning outweighs the disadvantage of a depreciating asset, the financially stupid who don’t seem to care that they could lose hundreds of thousands and maybe a very small number who have found their dream home (like docteur, who owns outright).

So yes, there are people buying. And the band played on….even as the titanic was sinking.

[zk]

“I posted that data numbers are objective.”

I didn’t see any data at all. Could you show me where you posted any data numbers?

“Why? The information is readily available…”

Please explain why you think this will prevent large price drops.

[PerryChase]

I think that the Internet and the information available today will speed the crash, not slow it down. People will now be able to compare houses and get the best deal just like they do for electronics or cars.

The only reason prices have escalated in the last few years is the expectation of gains. Once that expectation is gone, prices will drop like stones. Think of all the people holding houses as “investments.” They will unload once they realize that holding on will cost them thousands per month with no prospect to recoup the losses. How much does a house have to appreciate to justify $20,000+ per year in holding costs?

[NateK]

“Don’t hold your Breath” Uhhhhhhhhh….Hmmmmmmm…That’s a good one…..Ohhhhh Yeah!!!!Welll Ohhhhh Yeah!!!!!!Yeah…*thinking of a comeback* Yo Momma!!!!

Hey Pasadena Broker,

If you’re saying real estate will always go up in the long term, I don’t think anyone will disagree with you. Was that your whole point??? Or are you gonna add the “Sticks and Stones will break my bones, but words will never hurt me” argument too.

[SD Realtor]

Perry I am not so sure the decline will be as rapid as we all hope it to be… (Yes I to am renting and WANT very badly for the pricing to reach more affordable levels)

Again I have posted many a note about the sticky on the way down phenom… More concrete examples… a couple at Crescent Court in San Marcos priced thier home at 580-595 EVEN though the last from the bulder is priced in the 570’s… This family is only “semi motivated” right now. Another listing I just cancelled was a condo owner who had a condo at Pelican Cove in Oceanside. He bought last year at 339k and couldn’t fathom why his home didnt sell at 380 then 360… So now he will rent… and lose more money…

Also I am still fascinated by buyers that ARE still out there. I went to a listing appointment today out in Carlsbad and the young couple were very disappointed by the comps I showed them… So they will hold off and not sell BUT THEY STILL WANT TO BUY… I am bringing them to Portico tomorrow in Carmel Valley… This after I spent an hour telling them why I felt they should hold off on buying…

Anyways I think the worst depreciation will continue for condos and certain areas of town. However I am very much puzzled by what I call the bonehead factor… yes in the long run real estate does go up but like any other commodity there are intelligent entry points. Why anyone would buy now when the past 3 months have seen YOY declines in sales that are close to 30% amazes me…

SD Realtor

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