Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
gn
ParticipantColombo,
Within a metropolitan area, all sub-markets are “connected”.
The “bi-and trifurcating” that you observed is only a temporary phenomena. Any competent RE appraiser will tell you this.There is a large number of newly built homes in Contra Costa county & Solano county. When prices go down in Contra Costa county & Solano county, that’s bad news for the rest of the bay area. As prices collapse in the east bay, it will draw buyers from the rest of the bay area.
I would even go as far as saying, when prices go down in the central valley (Tracy, Modesto …), it’s bad news for the bay area. That’s because many folks there commute daily to the bay area.
ParticipantAre LS and PL and LP likely to be affected by the downturn?
pertinazzio – Within the same metropolitan area (within "commuting distance" from job center(s)), prices in all sub-markets are connected. When prices in Escondido goes down dramatically (happening right now), it will eventually affect Liberty Station.
I think your time frame of 2 year (2009) might be too soon. That is, you probably have to wait until 2010- 2012 for prices in the coastal areas to reach the "bottom".
ParticipantAre LS and PL and LP likely to be affected by the downturn?
pertinazzio – Within the same metropolitan area (within "commuting distance" from job center(s)), prices in all sub-markets are connected. When prices in Escondido goes down dramatically (happening right now), it will eventually affect Liberty Station.
I think your time frame of 2 year (2009) might be too soon. That is, you probably have to wait until 2010- 2012 for prices in the coastal areas to reach the "bottom".
ParticipantSan Jose is considered a less prestigious area of the Bay Area, and home prices are DROPPING here, but not yet as dramatically as seen in San Diego
stockstradr, at this time last year when prices in SD were dropping, prices in the bay area was holding up pretty well. That tells me: the bay area is merely lagging the rest. The myth that "it's different in the bay area" is just that, a myth.
In 2005, I moved from the bay area to SD for a job change. I lived in the bay area for a few years, so, I know the bay area "mentality" well. The denial factor in the bay area is very strong.
ParticipantSan Jose is considered a less prestigious area of the Bay Area, and home prices are DROPPING here, but not yet as dramatically as seen in San Diego
stockstradr, at this time last year when prices in SD were dropping, prices in the bay area was holding up pretty well. That tells me: the bay area is merely lagging the rest. The myth that "it's different in the bay area" is just that, a myth.
In 2005, I moved from the bay area to SD for a job change. I lived in the bay area for a few years, so, I know the bay area "mentality" well. The denial factor in the bay area is very strong.
October 10, 2007 at 12:24 PM in reply to: So you still think that a 50% correction or more is crazy??? #87833ParticipantWho are you referring to? If they are "weathering the storm", the what difference do the comps make? It seems like the referral to these type of people on this board categorize them as having affordable mort. and want to live in their house long term
Bob2007, I think JWM was refering to the following case:
John Doe bought his house in 2002 with a 3yr-ARM. In 2005, when the ARM resetted, he had a lot of equity & was able to refinance into another 3yr-ARM.
In 2008, when the ARM will reset, if prices go down significantly, John Doe may not have the equity need to refinance again. Some people may think that home prices in 2002 was "low" enough for people who bought at that time will be able to "weather the storm", but it all depends on the financing used to purchase the house.
October 10, 2007 at 12:24 PM in reply to: So you still think that a 50% correction or more is crazy??? #87837ParticipantWho are you referring to? If they are "weathering the storm", the what difference do the comps make? It seems like the referral to these type of people on this board categorize them as having affordable mort. and want to live in their house long term
Bob2007, I think JWM was refering to the following case:
John Doe bought his house in 2002 with a 3yr-ARM. In 2005, when the ARM resetted, he had a lot of equity & was able to refinance into another 3yr-ARM.
In 2008, when the ARM will reset, if prices go down significantly, John Doe may not have the equity need to refinance again. Some people may think that home prices in 2002 was "low" enough for people who bought at that time will be able to "weather the storm", but it all depends on the financing used to purchase the house.
ParticipantKyle,
Given how bad things are in Murieta & that things will get a lot worse, a 1900 sq ft house should be worth less than $200k (a lot less, maybe closer to $150k).
You may think I’m crazy for saying that. But 2 years ago, most people thought it would be crazy to think that a 3000 sq ft house is worth less than $300k. See this thread:
ParticipantKyle,
Given how bad things are in Murieta & that things will get a lot worse, a 1900 sq ft house should be worth less than $200k (a lot less, maybe closer to $150k).
You may think I’m crazy for saying that. But 2 years ago, most people thought it would be crazy to think that a 3000 sq ft house is worth less than $300k. See this thread:
October 9, 2007 at 4:41 PM in reply to: Sandicor MLS Statics are out and it really ain’t pretty #87646ParticipantTo me, the most telling statistic is the “values of closed sales”.
Aug. 2006 $1,580,567,152
Sep. 2006 $1,321,094,95616% reduction. This change is due to “seasonal reasons” (i.e. families with children tend to buy larger houses & close during the summer before schools start).
Aug. 2007 $1,328,689,822
Sep. 2007 $872,492,17534% reduction. This is due to seasonal reasons & the credit squeeze.
October 9, 2007 at 4:41 PM in reply to: Sandicor MLS Statics are out and it really ain’t pretty #87651ParticipantTo me, the most telling statistic is the “values of closed sales”.
Aug. 2006 $1,580,567,152
Sep. 2006 $1,321,094,95616% reduction. This change is due to “seasonal reasons” (i.e. families with children tend to buy larger houses & close during the summer before schools start).
Aug. 2007 $1,328,689,822
Sep. 2007 $872,492,17534% reduction. This is due to seasonal reasons & the credit squeeze.
ParticipantSince home prices have been going up for so long, many folks look a prices that are 20% off the peak & think that they got a great bargain. So, they jump in.
It’s the psychological factor. Just as it took years for people to become “believers”, it will take years for the reverse to occur.
As the old adage goes:
“Dumb money always follow smart money”ParticipantSince home prices have been going up for so long, many folks look a prices that are 20% off the peak & think that they got a great bargain. So, they jump in.
It’s the psychological factor. Just as it took years for people to become “believers”, it will take years for the reverse to occur.
As the old adage goes:
“Dumb money always follow smart money”ParticipantThe number of foreclosures can fluctuate from month to month. You need to look at a longer time frame (at least 3 months) to get a meaningful picture.
-
AuthorPosts
